Tag: middle-east

U. S.-IRAN MEMO OF UNDERSTANDING

As always, the contents of this blog constitute a compendium of various media communications supplemented by my personal opinion, where indicated.

The recently distributed 14-point Memo of Understanding between the US and Iran has drawn significant controversy. Everyone has an opinion. Comments and opinions have ranged from extremely positive (Trump, Vance and Rubio) to extremely negative, if not derisive (among most Dems, much of the media and even some Repubs). All this, and the ink is barely dry on the document.

In my opinion, people have to take a deep breath and recognize the MOU for what it is and what it is not. It is not a peace agreement. Essentially, what it is is a 60-day cease fire agreement, nothing more, nothing less, and it should be evaluated as such. Moreover, don’t be surprised if the 60-day limit gets extended, perhaps multiple times.

I believe it would be of little value to delve into the weeds of the MOU at this time. Suffice to say, the wording is vague and needs to be refined. Also, some key issues have been omitted, such as (1) Iran’s sponsoring of so-called “proxies” and (2) Israel’s separate war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, or require clarification, such as (1) the treatment of the $300 billion of “frozen” Iranian funds, (2) the details of the collection, disposal, and/or destruction of Iran’s nuclear dust, and (3) the verification process of various matters.

I wouldn’t characterize the MOU as “not worth the paper it is printed on” as some have. Rather, it should be evaluated as a first step in the peace negotiation process. I will denote, however, that it is a bad deal for Israel. It doesn’t address its major concerns with respect to Iran or its proxies. Some supporters, including me, would even characterize it as a betrayal of our staunchest ally in the ME.

I expect all parties to interpret elements of it differently. There is enough in it for both sides to interpret it as a “victory.” Hopefully, these issues will be ironed out sufficiently. Remember, as I opined in a previous blog the “devil is in the details.”

In the short-term I think the most significant matter is the opening of the Hormuz Strait. It will get the oil flowing, which will produce positive tangible results of lower energy prices for both businesses and consumers and ultimately improve the economy. As I have discussed in previous blogs the mid-term elections are approaching, and history tells us that the number one issue for voters is always the economy. Indeed, recent surveys have identified the number one issue for voters as affordability and the cost of living e.g. putting food on the table, paying the mortgage or rent, and healthcare. The Iran War and other key matters are simply not as important to most voters at the present time. Many of them have limited knowledge of the issues and are blissfully unaware of Iran’s nuclear threat.

Conclusion

I have significant misgivings concerning the current iteration of the peace process. I feel like we are missing our one chance to deal decisively with Iran once and for all. I fear that the vague wording of the MOU will yield a long, drawn-out peace treaty negotiation process. This will enable Iran to do what it has always done – lie, cheat, obfuscate, and delay, delay, and delay some more until US public opinion forces us to accept an agreement that does not meet all of our objectives.

As a means of defending the MOU President Trump has reiterated that if Iran fails to “live up” to its end of the MOU he can and will resume military action. Sounds great, but I foresee problems with that. At what point would an Iranian transgression be serious enough to warrant military action? For example, suppose Iran were to resume impeding the flow of oil through the Hormuz Strait or support a terrorist attack by one of its cells in the US or by Hezbollah against Israel. Would any of those actions be deemed sufficient to trigger additional military action? Resuming military action would be a drastic step and would be very unpopular with our allies and even worse, with the voters especially this close to the midterms. Furthermore, I believe Iran will test the US’s resolve by committing a series of “minor” violations.

Finally, and most significantly, although Iran fears and respects Trump he will not be president forever. Iran can take the long view. Eventually, the US will elect a president with less fortitude and with a more flexible attitude toward Iran and the ME in general. Then, I fear, Iran will be able to take advantage.

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IRAN PEACE DEAL. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS.

As always, the contents of this blog constitute a compendium of multiple media reports supplemented by my personal opinion where indicated.

Apparently, after several months of fighting and several weeks of on and off negotiations Iran and the US have agreed on a deal to end hostilities. (Sort of, maybe, kind of, perhaps.) Vice President J. D. Vance said the U.S. signed a peace agreement with Iran “digitally” on Sunday. He characterized it as a major step toward peace. He stated the deal “ensures that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon,” the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened, and none of the frozen funds has been released to Iran yet. He added the deal would “change the Middle East” (predicated on Iran’s compliance with it). Major allies, including France, Germany, Italy, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom praised the announcement and agreed “to lift relevant sanctions in response to clear, verifiable steps by Iran on its nuclear program.”

At first blush, this is good news, however, given Iran’s negotiating history I wouldn’t get too excited yet. I, for one, am skeptical. Even after the final agreement has been signed as planned, I will remain skeptical. I just don’t trust Iran to live up to whatever agreement it signs. In my opinion it will lie, obfuscate and cheat. Moreover, I am not the only one who has expressed that opinion. Independent verification of compliance to the terms of any agreement will be crucial.

The initial reaction of the financial markets has been very positive. Both US and foreign markets have posted sizeable gains. The price of U.S. crude oil declined over 5% in early Monday trading to around $80 per barrel, while international Brent crude fell about 4.5% to $83 per barrel. For both benchmarks, these levels were the lowest since the first week of March, just days after the war with Iran commenced. Heating oil declined 3%, while wholesale gasoline prices dropped 4%. Natural gas futures fell 3%. This was in addition a 6% decrease in oil prices during last week in anticipation of an agreement. In addition, I have noticed a drop in the price of gas at the pump, which is very discernible to voters.

Not everyone is so ebullient. For example, various Israeli officials have criticized the deal. Israel has consistently been more aggressive toward Iran than the US and, given their hostile history, for good reason. Prime Minister Netanyahu has yet to comment on it (the word is he hasn’t been provided a copy yet, which is curious since Israel has been our principal ally in this war), but Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that IDF forces will not be withdrawing from Lebanon despite whatever the deal may say. That could be significant as discussed below.

Many news outlets are referring to the deal as “preliminary,” which is disquieting in and of itself. Even VP JD Vance, in an interview with CNBC, described the agreement as but “a major step towards peace,” not a “done deal.” In addition, he declined to divulge specific details of the deal. Again, the devil is in the details. The full text of the agreement has not been made available yet, which is suspicious in and of itself. But emerging details have suggested that some of the most difficult issues, including the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, have been deferred to future rounds of negotiations. Absent a resolution of the central issues how can the negotiators maintain that there is a deal?

In my view we are still a long way from a final agreement. There are a plethora of issues and details that still remain to be finalized. I will outline some of these below. As I said in the title, the devil is in the details. For instance:

  1. According to many analysts and commentators it is likely that negotiators on each side will interpret the vague language differently, either intentionally or unintentionally leading to misunderstandings and worse.
  2. It does not address, in sufficient detail, the US’s primary objectives of the war, namely eliminating Iran’s prospective nuclear capabilities, the surrender and disposal of its “nuclear dust,” and Iran’s terminating its support of “proxy” terrorist groups. Those were the main purposes of the war. Any deal that excludes acquiescence with respect to those issues would be worthless.
  3. The United States and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to cease hostilities for 60 days, but how will the cease fire be monitored, by whom, what will constitute a violation, and what will be the penalties for said violations? And what of the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon? Iran has continually insisted that that conflict must be included in any deal, in which case the cease fire would already have been violated, whereas the US has insisted it is a separate matter.
  4. Since its commencement on February 28, the war has not produced many of the results President Trump had vowed to achieve, such as overthrowing Iran’s autocratic, theocratic leadership and liberating its citizens, which are among the most oppressed in the world. Will those issues be included in any deal or not?
  5. The language regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is extremely vague. For example, when will it reopen? Who will ensure all the mines have been removed or destroyed? Who will govern the passage of ships through it? Will Iran be precluded from charging fees or not?
  6. There are questions regarding the US’s blockade of Iranian shipping. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Group, which acts as the chief point of contact for merchant ships liaising with military forces in the region, warned that the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports will remain in effect until the peace deal with Iran has been signed. The UKTMO then followed up with a memo warning all vessels not to attempt a crossing until “explicit direction is given” (presumably by them and presumably not until the cease fire is in effect).

Conclusion

President Trump has invested a considerable amount of military assets, time, money, materials, goodwill, prestige and political capital in this venture. His overriding objective that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon is a righteous one. However, apparently, we are still a long way from a final settlement that the US and its allies in this war can live with. It is crucial that we attain our objectives. This will likely be our one and only chance to resolve this issue. Trump will not be president forever, and there are no assurances that his successor(s) will have the nerve, the fortitude and the domestic and worldwide support that Trump presently has to see this through.

Due to the foregoing, I would characterize this as merely the first step toward a lasting peace agreement, nothing more. That’s fine as far as it goes, but there is still much to do. The situation is very fluid. By the time you read this it may very well have changed.

Due to the impending midterm elections, I believe these negotiations need to show tangible results quickly. I further believe that the short-term key is the reopening of the Hormuz Strait. That will lead to the free flow of energy and a reduction of the cost to businesses and consumers alike. The price of energy affects the cost of all goods and services. Remember history has demonstrated repeatedly that the number one issue for voters in every election is the economy.

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DON’S DEFICIENT DEAL

As always, the contents of this blog are a compendium of multiple media reports supplemented by my personal opinion, where indicated.

Obviously, I have no inside knowledge of the ongoing peace negotiations among the US, Iran, Israel, and other interested parties. All I know is what I have read in the news and seen on tv. The following opinions and comments are based on that.

As most of you know, I have been an avid Trump supporter since 2016. I haven’t agreed with everything he has said and done but based on his many accomplishments I have always given him the benefit of the doubt. All that said, I am appalled at the terms of the proposed peace agreement as disclosed to date. For months Trump has reiterated that the purposes of the war were (1) to prevent Iran from ever having a nuclear weapon; (2) Iran must surrender its cache of enriched uranium; (3) there must be a reliable methodology to independently verify Iran’s compliance with #s 1 and 2; and (4) Iran must allow all ships free and unfettered passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

There are significant inconsistencies with respect to this “deal.” Trump has been saying that a deal to “end the war” has been “largely negotiated.” Only some details remain to be resolved, and they will be announced “shortly.” In addition: (1) Iran is reportedly committing to abandon the pursuit of developing nuclear weapons; (2) it is negotiating the surrender of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium; and (3) the Hormuz Strait will be reopened completely. In return, (1) Iran would be able to resume free oil sales; and (2) billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets would be released contingent upon reaching a final nuclear agreement.

Sounds promising, except just today an Iranian spokesperson issued a statement that totally contradicts Trump’s statement. He told a USA Today reporter anonymously that Iran has NOT committed to giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium as part of any settlement. Furthermore, Iran’s Fars news agency reported early Sunday that any agreement would have to continue to allow Iran to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz; Iran is continuing to deny claims that it has pursued or is pursuing nuclear weapons other than for “peaceful purposes,” and it has the right to do so; and it wants an end to the U.S. blockade on its ports and the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil sales.

Also, what will be the procedures for inspections of nuclear sites. For example, who will perform them, how often, will they be surprise visits or scheduled, will the inspectors have complete and unfettered access, and what will be the penalties for noncompliance. Truly, the devil is in the details. Does the foregoing sound like an agreement is “imminent,” and just a few “details” remain to be ironed out? I think not.

Trump’s and Iran’s positions are miles apart with significant unresolved differences. In fact, they are mutually exclusive. Both cannot be true. Since Iran’s militant leadership has adamantly and consistently stated it would never give up its stockpile of enriched uranium I believe it is more likely that its statements are more accurate.

One glaring omission from the proposed deal is Iran’s ballistic missiles program. Its missiles represent a clear and present danger. Iran already possesses missiles that can reach all of Europe. It will not be long before it develops missiles that can reach parts of the US as well.

There is also the matter of Israel, which may have different goals and a different attitude toward Iran and its proxies. In my view, there are signs that Israel is more cognizant of the dangers Iran and its proxies still present. Indeed, Israeli media has reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had told President Trump that Israel must “maintain the freedom to act against all threats, including in Lebanon.” I’m not sure if this signifies a slight difference between Trump and Netanyahu or an actual rift.

Conclusion

History tells us that Iran has consistently negotiated in bad faith. Its representatives say one thing and do another. Their negotiating strategy has been to lie, obfuscate, deceive and delay, delay and then delay some more. This strategy has been very successful for 47 years with multiple Administrations. Trump has repeatedly denigrated these negotiating tactics and derided those who have fallen for them. Yet, it appears that he may be falling into the same trap.

If we were to agree to Iran’s current terms the war will have failed to accomplish any of our main objectives. In fact, I could make a case that we would be worse off. Iran would still have its stockpile of enriched uranium; we would not be certain that all of its nuclear material was destroyed; we would have expended a goodly portion of our weaponry; Trump would have dissipated much of his political capital; and many people would perceive Iran to be the winner thus raising its status and diminishing ours in the eyes of the world.

Finally, let’s not forget that we won the war, not Iran. Thus, we should be dictating terms not getting bogged down in prolonged negotiations with murky details. Trump has said he is reluctant to attack in force. He wants to give the negotiations a chance. He wants to avoid killing innocent Iranians. I agreed up to a point, but we are well past that point. The longer these negotiations drag on the more it will hurt our economy. When all is said and done elections are always about the economy. A problematic economy will likely spell defeat in the midterm elections. Remember, America first!

These negotiations have not and will not bear fruit. It’s time to lay down the hammer and end this once and for all.

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ENOUGH ALREADY

As always, the contents of this blog are a compendium of multiple media reports supplemented by my personal opinion, where indicated.

Like many of you I have become extremely frustrated by the lack of progress regarding the negotiations between Iran and the US. As you know, we quickly and easily defeated Iran militarily, destroyed its Navy, killed several layers of its leadership, knocked out its communications systems and have been choking its economy through the blockade of the Hormuz Strait. Some of you may recall that in a previous blog I opined that the military victory was the easy part. Now comes the hard part – winning the peace.

Negotiations have dragged on for weeks. At the present time, they are at a virtual standstill. We have made our demands clear, which include, among other things, no nuclear weapons, no enriched uranium, cease fomenting terrorism, and allowing free and unfettered passage through the Hormuz Strait. These are non-negotiable. They are the main reasons for the war in the first place. If we don’t get them, we will have wasted our time, money, and political capital for nothing.

Iran has not made any meaningful, substantive counteroffer. It is not even clear that its negotiators have the authority to agree to a legitimate deal and enforce Iran’s side of it. Iran continues to insist it will not negotiate the above issues. Instead, it wants to discuss the possible reopening of the Hormuz Strait, which, under international law, it had no legal authority to close in the first place. Its latest proposal called for the complete withdrawal of US forces from the area as a prerequisite for further negotiations. Naturally, Trump dismissed this sham proposal out of hand, characterizing it as “unacceptable.”

In my opinion Iran has no intention of acceding to our demands. Its strategy is what it has always been, delay, delay, delay and delay some more. And, from their point of view, why not? This “rope-a-dope” strategy has been successful every time with previous Administrations. Iran is betting that at some point public opinion, the rising price of oil, and the impending midterm elections will pressure the US negotiators to accept an inferior deal. Currently, according to the AAA the price of oil at the pump is hovering in the $4.50 range, and history tells us it will increase even further over the Memorial Day weekend. Before the war the price averaged $3.00. This is unacceptable.

Oddly enough whereas our allies are mostly supporting the Administration’s war efforts it has been getting strong (and inane, I might add) criticism from the Dem Party politicians, their allies in the media, and the anti-Israel/antisemites. Many Dem politicians have been characterizing the war as “illegal” due to the absence of Congressional approval and “reckless.” For example, Senator Tammy Duckworth and Rep. John Garamendi have characterized the war as a “quagmire.”

One problem for the Administration has been the contradictory messaging. For example, Trump has always described the war as a “short excursion” that would end in a “matter of weeks.” It has been almost three months, and the end does not appear to be in sight. Indeed, recently White House deputy press secretary, Anna Kelly told Fox News that Trump “is not in a rush” to end the war.

The latest Pew Research poll disclosed that Americans now disapprove of the war by 61% to 37%. This is exactly what the Iranians are banking on. In my opinion this level of disapproval will increase if the negotiations continue to drag on and the price of oil remains high, in which case it would likely impact the midterm elections.

Conclusion

Normally, I agree with Trump’s policies and actions. With respect to the Iran War, I agree it was necessary for all the reasons that have been cited in my previous blogs and elsewhere. I applaud his desires to try to reach a negotiated settlement to avoid unnecessary bloodshed. However, in my view the negotiations have gone on long enough.

It is clear to me that Iran will never agree to cease its nuclear ambitions, surrender its enriched uranium, allow free and unfettered access through the Hormuz Strait, nor cease fomenting terrorism throughout the ME and the world. Trump gave negotiations a chance. It’s becoming apparent that they will not culminate in a satisfactory deal.

I say, don’t fall for the “rope-a-dope.” Why are we negotiating anyway? We won; they lost. This should be an unconditional surrender where we tell them what we want and they comply, or else.

This may be our one and only chance to settle things with Iran in a manner that ensures a non-nuclear future. I say, stop “pussyfooting around.” Now, is the time to “drop the hammer.” I say employ any and all means to confiscate the enriched uranium, verify that Iran’s nuclear program has ended, and open the Hormuz Strait.

Enough already! We are on the one-yard line. Punch it in!

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PROJECT FREEDOM

As always, the contents of this blog are a compendium of multiple media reports supplemented by my personal opinion where indicated.

Negotiations have gone on long enough. They are at a standoff. The time has come to act. It’s clear that the Iranians are not negotiating in good faith. They are doing what they have always done – stall, stall, and stall some more. This “rope-a-dope” has worked for years, and they are hoping it will work again. They are banking on political pressure from within the US, and they are getting it. Trump is being criticized for his handling of the war, the price of oil, and the rate of inflation. He is losing popularity, and the midterms are coming soon.

The Iranians have not and are not going to agree to our core demands. We don’t even know that the Iranians with whom we are negotiating have the power and authority to negotiate. We are receiving conflicting information. Who’s in charge? Is it the politicians? Is it the military? Is it the Ayatollah? Is the Ayatollah alive, dead or incapacitated? Is a small cadre of close advisors making decisions in his name? (This is eerily similar to the Biden presidency.)

As I have opined in previous blogs in my view, President Trump’s prosecution of the war has been flawless to date. In a matter of weeks our military has destroyed Iran’s nuclear capability, its military, its infrastructure, its communication systems and its economy. Militarily, the war a complete mismatch akin to an NFL team playing against a high school team.

Now, comes the harder part. We won the war; now we have to win the peace, which will be largely fought in the court of public opinion both in the US and abroad. Now, the overriding goal is to bring down the price of oil and hence the inflation rate. The blockade of the Hormuz Strait was a wise attempt to force Iran to surrender without additional loss of lives – ours and theirs. Trump was being considerate of the Iranian people who have suffered greatly and are continuing to do so. That is to his credit. Unfortunately, the blockade has not opened up the Strait. It has not revitalized the flow of oil. Americans are suffering and getting mad.

Now, Trump must take more decisive action. He has a plethora of choices ranging from continuing diplomacy to “letting the dogs loose,” i. e. resuming massive bombing and/or taking Kharg Island. We don’t have to “bomb Iran back to the Stone Age.” Just take control of its oil.

Wisely, he has chosen a “middle of the road” response. Just today he has initiated one of the mildest possible actions dubbed “Project Freedom” whereby US Navy ships will commence escorting commercial oil tankers through the strait. Many of these tankers are owned and operated by neutral countries who have had no part in the war. Nevertheless, they have been stuck outside the strait since the war began. At this point their crews are running low on fuel, food and other necessities. Trump said these countries have been requesting the US for assistance. The situation grew more critical over the weekend as Iranian boats attacked one of these ships. Additional attacks are feared. If this action does not work, he can always proceed with one of the more aggressive actions.

Several observers, such as Retired General Jack Keane, have been advocating for military action to resolve the Iran problem once and for all. There is merit to that position. This will probably be our one and only shot. We have a president who has the guts to do what’s right, not what is politically expedient. Unfortunately, Trump will not be president forever. His successors might be less assertive. Moreover, let’s not forget, we have three carrier groups in the area and thousands of jets and troops. We can do whatever we want.

Conclusion

Domestic support for the war is dwindling. Trump knows the midterm elections are only six months away. Politically speaking, this war must be resolved before then.

When all is said and done, the top issue for voters is the economy. Elections are always about the economy. Thanks to the rhetoric of the Dems and their allies in the media a goodly portion of voters are not even cognizant of the seriousness of the existential threat of a nuclear-capable Iran. They are unaware of the objective of the war and are questioning its necessity.

People are suffering, and they are mad. They don’t care about Iran. All they focus on is the high price of oil, now as high as $115 per barrel and $4.46 at the pump for a gallon of regular. Before the war it was significantly lower. Prices, in general, are high. They are reminded every time they gas-up their car, go food shopping, or pay the rent or mortgage. Naturally, they blame Trump for all of it.

As of early May 2026, President Trump’s approval ratings, heavily impacted by the economy, inflation and the war, have hit new second-term lows. For example, the most recent ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos Poll disclosed his approval to be just 37% and his disapproval at 62%. Unless these ratings rebound Republicans will likely lose control of one or both house of Congress. In that event Trumps’ program will be thwarted and he will likely be impeached again.

It’s time to focus on the needs of the American people, not those of the Iranian people. It’s time for Trump to refocus on his famous mantra – “America First.”

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TRUMP’S STRANGLE STRATEGY

As always, the contents of this blog are a compendium of multiple media reports supplemented by my personal opinion where indicated.

I like President Trump’s current strategy to blockade Iranian shipping attempting to navigate the Strait of Hormuz. At this stage of the war, it is the best strategy. I prefer it over the alternatives such as additional massive bombing of Iran’s oil wells or agreeing to a peace settlement that falls short of the primary objectives of the war, which for those who may have forgotten is to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weaponry.

The obvious objective of the blockade is to strangle Iran’s economy by depriving it of its sole source of revenue – oil. Normally, some 80% of Iran’s oil and 20% of the world’s oil and liquid natural gas passes through the Strait. It is the best and most expeditious route for these products to transit between the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. As I write this, the blockade has generally been very effective even though a few ships have managed to sneak through.

Iran has no alternative sources of revenue. It has no other natural resources, no manufacturing to speak of, and certainly no tourism. All it has is huge deposits of oil, which heretofore have sustained its economy and funded its desire to foment terrorism throughout the ME and the rest of the world through various proxies.

According to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth all ships (some 34 in total) traveling to or from Iranian ports have been “turned around without incident.”  Moreover, the blockade has been expanding. As I write this, the US now has three carrier groups in the region. Hegseth added “just this week, we seized two Iranian ‘dark fleet’ ships in the Indo-Pacific region that had left Iranian ports before the blockade went into effect.” Furthermore, in posts on his Truth Social platform Trump claimed: “Iran is collapsing financially! [It] want[s] the Strait of Hormuz opened immediately. [It is] starving for cash! [It is] [l]osing about $500 million a day.” Recently, it was reported that Iran has about 127 million barrels of crude oil reserves that are stored in parked tankers. That sounds like a lot, but in truth it will not last long. But that doesn’t mean that the blockade wouldn’t hurt Iran,” he said.

For various reasons a goodly portion of congresspersons and other critics has opposed the war from its inception. As I explained in previous blogs they fall into four categories: (1) those with a political agenda whether or not it is beneficial to America, (2) “never Trumpers,” who blindly and automatically oppose any action or policy Trump undertakes, (3) antisemites and anti-Israel critics, and (4) those who are misinformed by the “fake news” media and/or ignorant of or choose to ignore the lessons of history. These categories of vociferous naysayers include many Dem politicians such as Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, Gavin Newsome, Kamala Harris and AOC, who should know better. Perhaps, some or all of them should brush up on their knowledge of history.

On May 1 the Trump Administration may face a Congressional challenge with respect to the continued deployment of the military in Iran. Some Congresspersons have opined that the duration of the US’s military campaign against Iran is limited by the War Powers Act of 1973, which mandates that a President commence military withdrawal after 60 days unless Congress either declares war, authorizes the specific action, or extends the deadline. Congress has not taken either action and is unlikely to do so.

The Administration has “pushed back” claiming there is “no firm deadline for ending the conflict as it has not formally characterized the campaign as a “war.” Consequently, congressional approval is not required. The 60th day is May 1. We’ll have to see how this matter is resolved. It may require a ruling by SCOTUS.

Conclusion

The blockade has been opposed by the usual suspects as detailed above. Due to their ten-year record of lies, exaggerations and obfuscations that have invariably been ultimately debunked their opinion no longer has any credence if it ever did.

In my opinion, however, it has proven to be a very successful strategy. It has strangled Iran’s economy by depriving it of some $500 million of oil revenue per day. As a result, in addition to not having any nuclear weapons or an effective military Iran’s economy and finances are being severely degraded. It has nothing. NOTHING.

At this point, we don’t have to fight. We don’t have to risk American lives. We can just sit back and watch Iran strangle to death unless it accepts our terms.

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THE HARD WAY OR THE EASY WAY

As always, the contents of this blog are a compendium of multiple media reports supplemented by my personal opinion, where indicated.

As I write this blog the US is attempting to arrange round two of peace negotiations with Iran. Predictably, round one did not yield any meaningful results. As always, the Iranian negotiators were not negotiating in good faith. Obviously, they did not have the power and the authority to do so seriously. Since then, it has become apparent that the country is in turmoil. There is a power struggle between the politicians who seem willing to be realistic and reasonable and the military, which is not. There is no clearcut leader, so a meaningful, lasting deal cannot be consummated.

Despite all the fake news characterizing President Trump as a reckless, heartless, warmonger the empirical evidence clearly illustrates that he wants a peaceful resolution to this war. Iran has been thoroughly and completely defeated militarily. At the moment, it is “circling the drain” financially and economically. Its navy has been destroyed; its nuclear weaponry and nuclear “dust,” Trump’s term to describe Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile and residual nuclear material currently buried under tons of debris that could be retrieved and “enriched” to make nuclear bombs have been neutralized; its leadership has been virtually wiped out; its communications systems are “shot;” its economy is destroyed; and the US’s blockade of the Hormuz Strait is preventing any ships from entering or leaving its ports. In short, Iran is completely helpless. It is at our mercy. Trump could, as he has said, bomb it back to the stone age. For them, continuing the war would be futile and suicidal.

I believe further negotiations would be a “fool’s errand.” It would provide Iran with another opportunity to lie, delay and obfuscate and turn public opinion in its favor. It’s what they have always done and what they will continue to do. They are not in any position to negotiate terms. Their choices are to (1) surrender and accept our terms unconditionally (the easy way) or (2) continue to resist and be annihilated (the hard way). At this point most countries would accept reality and opt for the easy way in order to retain some semblance of viability.

However, Iran’s leadership is dominated by fanatical religious zealots who have espoused the destruction of Israel, the US, and any other “non-believers.” We have to understand that they have no desire to negotiate a lasting peace treaty. They would rather fight to the end and die as martyrs. They have been attacking Israel, the US and others and fomenting terrorism through their proxies for 47 years. They have tried to assassinate Trump at least twice. They have no empathy for anyone, even their own citizenry who have been suffering greatly. After all, they have already slaughtered tens of thousands of them merely for the “crime” of protesting. They will fight to the last man. I applaud Trump for continually attempting to forge a lasting peaceful solution, but the time to “lower the boom” once and for all is approaching rapidly. The current situation is untenable. It is hurting Americans economically and, by extension, the GOP’s prospects for the midterm elections. In my view, Iran is akin to a cancer that must be extirpated.

Conclusion

The latest Reuters/Ipsos Poll disclosed that Trump’s approval rating has declined to 36%, which is a new low. A majority of respondents were critical of both the state of the economy and his conduct of the war. There is substantial pressure on him to negotiate a settlement even though we have not yet achieved complete and total victory and even if it would allow Iran to rise again in the future.

His critics primarily include the following groups:

  1. The “never-Trumpers” who will always oppose any action or policy of his. In this case many of them have openly stated that they would rather the US lose this war than see Trump get credit for winning it,
  2. those who hate Israel and Jews,
  3. the politicians (mostly Dems) who crave power over doing what would benefit the country,
  4. the well-meaning persons who have been gaslighted by the fake news media, and
  5. the inattentive and/or ignorant persons who neither know nor care about the lessons of history and have no appreciation of the gravity of the current situation.

Luckily, Trump is impervious to criticism and polls. He has consistently pursued the course of action that he believes is right, not one that is politically expedient. It’s what he is doing now. It’s fine to give a negotiated lasting peace a chance, but not for too much longer. I hope that Trump retains the fortitude to persevere and finish the job. To use a sports analogy, we’re at the one-yard line. Punch it in!

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A PEACE AGREEMENT WITH IRAN IS IMMINENT, OR IS IT?

As always, the contents of this blog constitute a compendium of multiple media reports supplemented by my personal opinion, where indicated.

As I have written in previous blogs militarily, it was a complete mismatch, comparable to an NFL team taking on a high school team. In a matter of weeks, we have defeated Iran militarily completely and decisively. We have bombed them relentlessly (including destroying its nuclear capability, its nuclear enrichment sites, its factories, its communication systems, and its economy, among other targets), killed the Ayatollah and the top two or three tiers of Iran’s leadership, destroyed its Navy, taken out virtually all of its missiles, rockets and other weaponry, opened up the Hormuz Strait, blockaded the Strait to choke off any ships trying to enter or leave Iranian ports, and cut off its primary means of revenue – oil. Like I said, a total and decisive military victory. Kudos to President Trump, Secretary of War Hegseth, and the entire military hierarchy from the Joint Chiefs down to the enlisted men and women.

It was well-known that Iran was close to attaining nuclear capability. Its negotiators even bragged about it at one of the sessions. Everyone knew that the rest of the world could not allow that to happen. Something had to be done and soon.

Iran’s military was no match for the US. All that was required was a US president with the b**ls to do what needed to be done. Unlike predecessors Obama and Biden, President Trump was that man. He understood that history tells us appeasement never works in the long run. The other side views it as weakness and always seeks to take advantage. Aggressors will always keep pressing until they meet resistance. He was wise to Iran’s negotiating tactics and would not be deceived.

However, I believe all that was the easy part. Now comes the hard part, to forge an agreement that will last, that Iran will honor, and that future US presidents will have the fortitude to enforce if it doesn’t. In summary, we won the war; now we have to win the peace. More about this later.

As I have said multiple times anyone who has been paying attention to the news and is analyzing it objectively, rationally and coherently was cognizant that (1) Iran was close to developing nuclear capability, (2) was lying about it, (3) would likely use it once it had it, (4) could never be allowed to possess it, and (5) it was incumbent on the US to prevent it by force, if necessary.

And yet, the Dems and their allies in the media fought Trump at every turn. This was incredulous under the circumstances, but not surprising. As I have blogged many times, they have consistently opposed and denigrated every Trump policy and action. They have persisted even though it consistently placed them on the wrong side of various “80-20” issues. But this was different. We’re used to TDS. Normally, we laugh it off, but this situation presented an existential threat not only to the US, but potentially to the entire world as a whole. This situation had the potential to impact not only us, but also future generations. Obviously, they didn’t care. Obviously, they wanted Trump to fail even if it damaged our national security.

For example:

  1. At first, they insisted the war was illegal. The Constitution states that only Congress can declare war. True, but there have been a plethora of precedents in which the president has commenced hostilities going all the way back to Thomas Jefferson and the wars against the Barbary Pirates beginning in 1801.
  2. At the beginning Trump was labeled a “warmonger,” a “fascist,” and a “violator of human rights.” Later, when he agreed to a cease fire he was labeled “soft.”
  3. As I said, many of his critics were openly rooting for Iran just so Trump would fail and give them a political issue in advance of the 2026 midterm elections. For instance, NY Times columnist Thomas Friedman, a hardline progressive and avowed Trump-hater actually admitted that “although he doesn’t like [the] Iranian regime,” he is rooting for it because he “doesn’t want to see Trump or Bibi Netanyahu getting credit for what would be a historic win for global peace.”
  4. Reportage of the war was radically different depending upon which media outlet was reporting the news.

Conclusion

As I write this it appears that Iran is agreeing to all of the US’s peace terms. That’s great, but as I said above, given its history of lies and obfuscations a word of caution is needed. Negotiations are still ongoing. We cannot assume anything. We don’t even know for sure that we are negotiating with the persons who actually have the authority to make a deal. Iran could be stalling while it rebuilds and re-arms.

Moreover, even after a deal has been signed there will no assurances that Iran will abide by it. It will require continuous monitoring, probably indefinitely. Iran fears and respects Trump, but it is playing the “long game.” It knows Trump will be gone shortly. Its hope is that eventually we will elect another president who will be weak, lax or inattentive and will re-engage in appeasement. I hope not, but I fear it will happen.

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THE IRANIAN “ROPE-A-DOPE”

As always, the contents of this blog are a compendium of multiple media reports supplemented by my personal opinion, where indicated.

Well, that didn’t take long. The US/Israel-Iran cease fire agreement was over before it began. Many of us knew from the beginning that it never had a chance. Iran is claiming Israel broke it by continuing to attack Lebanon. The US and Israel claim the war in Lebanon was never part of the cease fire agreement. Iran is claiming that the US is not complying with its 10-Point Terms (which were ludicrous on their face). The US is claiming that Iran has not complied with any of its demands most immediately by failing to open the Hormuz Strait to all ships free of charge.

The peace negotiations between representatives of the US and Iran have commenced. In my view they will be a waste of time. Regardless, they will not result in a permanent peace. Based on its negotiating history Iran has no intention of complying with any of our terms. Its negotiators have been saying one thing privately to our negotiators and the opposite publicly. Its military is not fully standing down. We are not even 100% certain who is in charge of the country. Is it the politicians? Is it the military? Is it the religious fanatics? Are we even negotiating with the right persons?

As always, its objective will be to stall, obfuscate, and lie to draw out the negotiations indefinitely. This strategy, aka “The Iranian Rope-A-Dope,” has worked time and again with prior Administrations, and the Iranians hope it will again. More on this later.

Iran cannot beat us militarily. It has already lost decisively. However, having lost the war, its plan is to win in the arena of public opinion as it has done before. It is counting on the US and the world tiring of the war and become willing to make a deal that will enable it to live to fight another day. In that event, it plans to rebuild its war machine, re-enrich its uranium, and continue to terrorize the world, and abuse its own people.

Consider;

  1. There are many factions both in the US and around the world that have criticized the necessity and legality of the war and President Trump’s strategic decisions from the beginning. Lately they have grown more vociferous. Incredibly, some of them have been openly rooting for Iran to win.
  2. These naysayers include most of the Dems in Congress and their supporters in the media in the US as well as many of our “allies.” These “allies” are the same cowards who would not provide troops nor even allow us to refuel our airplanes in their countries.
  3. The rapidly approaching midterm elections will put additional pressure on Trump to make a deal lest the GOP risk losing its majorities in Congress.

Many observers, including me, were not happy with the cease fire. In our view we were so close to achieving all of our goals and finishing Iran off for good that we should have pressed on and finished the job. For example, Fox military analyst General Jack Keane denoted that we were “perhaps ten days to two weeks away from wiping out Iran’s remaining ballistic missile launchers, underground storage sites, military production facilities, and nondefense industries.” Basically, we let Iran off the hook. It still retains sufficient power and influence in the ME to cause problems. At this point it is likely that we will have to fight another war with it and continue to deal with the terrorist activities of it and its proxies.

As I write this, Iran has retained control of the Strait of Hormuz. In contravention of the laws of the sea, it is not allowing free unfettered passage to any and all ships. It has been selecting which ships will be allowed to pass through, and it is threatening to assess tariffs. This has been and will continue to wreak havoc with gas prices and therefore the economies of all countries. President Trump has to resolve this asap or else despite all of his accomplishments the GOP will likely be slaughtered at the polls in November.

In my opinion, at this point the key to a satisfactory result is Kharg Island. It is merely a tiny island of little consequence, EXCEPT FOR ITS LOCATION, which is smack dab in the middle of the aforementioned Strait of Hormuz. Remember some 20% of the world’s oil passes through it, and it accounts for 90% of Iran’s oil exports. I am reminded of that old expression that the value of real estate is based on “location, location, location.” KI is supremely important, and in my view if Iran continues to hinder traffic thru the Strait the US should take control of it and the Strait either by blockade or invasion.

Conclusion

The current peace negotiations in Pakistan are a waste of time. I understand that Trump wants to give peace a chance. I understand that he would prefer a peaceful resolution to the horrors of more war. However, as I said above, I have seen this movie before. I didn’t like it the other times I saw it, and I like it less this time. I know how it ends. You know it; Trump knows it; everyone who does not have their head up their a*s knows it.

Regardless of whatever terms may be agreed upon in Pakistan, history tells us the Iranian leaders will never abide by them. Iran will never fully disarm voluntarily. It will continue to foment terrorism in the ME, the US and the rest of the world. It will continue its 47-year campaign to destroy any and all “nonbelievers.” It will continue to blackmail the rest of the world by disrupting the world’s oil supply, or just by threatening to do so. It will try to rebuild their enriched uranium stockpile. They will never deviate from their goal of nuclear capability. If left alone, eventually, whether next year or in ten years, they will succeed. Eventually, we will have to fight them again, perhaps, in a larger, more devastating war. As I said in an earlier blog history generally repeats itself. For example, we didn’t finish off Germany in WWI, which sowed the seeds for the rise of Hitler. Throughout the 1930’s the European powers continually appeased Hitler, which led to a larger and more devastating WWII.

My advice to Trump is ignore your critics. You will never be able to satisfy them anyway. You know it. I know it. We all know it. Do the right thing, not the politically expedient thing. Don’t fall for the Iranian “rope-a-dope” as your predecessors have. Let’s not forget that as winners we get to dictate the terms.

Metaphorically, we are stalled on the one-yard line. Punch it in. FINISH THE WAR!

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NO KINGS

As always, the contents of this blog are a compendium of various media reports supplemented by my personal opinion where indicated.

I was nonplussed by the most recent “No Kings” demonstrations. This was the third iteration, and the organizers are predicting (threatening) additional rallies prospectively. According to the Guardian, on March 28 over eight million people attended some 3,300 “No Kings” rallies in the U.S. and around the world, making it likely the largest single-day protest in U.S. history. I am continually amazed, appalled and even frightened by the dearth of some Americans’ knowledge of even the basics of current events, history and just general awareness of world events, and how easily they are continually manipulated by the radical left and the mainstream media, whose primary goals are to denigrate America and its system of government and divide the country. The organizers are radically left, highly organized, and well-funded. Many, if not most, of them are located offshore in communist/socialist countries.

With respect to the “No Kings” movement even the name is an absurd moniker that has no basis in reality. Trump is not a king, has not been acting as a king, and has no desire to be a king. He is not aiming to be president for life. After the 2028 presidential election he will leave the presidency just like all previous presidents have.

Most of the demonstrators don’t have the foggiest idea of the issues against which they are railing and don’t particularly care. All they know is that it is a protest against President Trump. What for, they don’t know or care. Some Dem politicians have even stated they are rooting against America just to hurt Trump. In my opinion, many of those who are protesting the war against Iran couldn’t even find it on the map much less have an understanding of the underlying and immediate issues.

Based on what I have bene able to glean from various news reports the major reasons for the protests are as follows:

  1. The Iran War
  2. High gas prices
  3. Inflation
  4. ICE overreach

I maintain that they are ignorant of the context of these issues. I have discussed each of these in recent blogs, but I will endeavor to provide a brief review at this time.

  1. The War – The overriding purpose of this war is to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear capability. No sane person wants that. We know Iran was merely weeks from achieving that goal. How? During the ongoing peace negotiations, they bragged as much to our representatives. We are highly confident that once they developed nuclear weapons, they would have no hesitation to use them. Their most likely targets would be Israel and the US, but they would have constituted a truly existential threat to the entire world. So, we are engaged in a limited war in the present to avoid a larger war in the future. If you think I am exaggerating the danger, review the history of the 1930s and the ill-conceived, ill-advised, and unsuccessful appeasement of Hitler. The people that are complaining that the war is “unnecessary,” “it’s not our fight,” and “we weren’t attacked” are woefully ignorant of the historical facts. In reality nothing could be further from the truth. The fact is we have been at war with Iran since 1979 when the radical lunatic mullahs took control of the country. Iran has established an unknown number of terrorist cells in the US.  Through its various proxies it has coordinated a plethora of attacks against both Israel and the US. It has planned and attempted the assassinations of various US officials including President Trump. So, this limited war is definitely necessary to prevent a significantly larger war later. Remember that old expression, “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” Rather than being vilified for his actions Trump should be applauded for having the courage to do what he is doing.
  2. High gas prices– It is true that the price of oil has skyrocketed since the advent of the aforementioned war, and that is a financial burden on virtually all Americans. However, this is a necessary short-term situation that will be resolved as soon as the war is over, which should be in a matter of weeks.  As I write this, according to Trading Economics and Bloomberg.com West Texas Crude oil is selling at approximately $104 per barrel, which is way too high, but, for perspective, in March 2022 during the Biden Administration the price was even higher, $130 per barrel. Furthermore, today’s price is due directly to Iran’s closing the Hormuz Strait whereas the price in 2022 was self-inflicted due to the Biden Administration’s ill-advised prolific spending.
  3. Inflation – The current inflation of 3% is too high, but to be fair, Trump did not cause the problem. He inherited it. He was in the process of addressing that issue before the war threw everything out of kilter. The price of energy affects the entire economy. After the war when the price of oil is under control the rate of inflation should decline to more acceptable levels.
  4. ICE Overreach – Briefly, the “left” has been complaining that ICE has been too aggressive in hunting down and deporting illegals. While there have been a few isolated incidents of violence these have occurred in sanctuary locales where the local law enforcement has exacerbated the situation by hindering, rather than helping the process. The larger point is that the illegals broke federal law just by entering the country. In addition, many of them were the dregs of society in their home countries and have continued to commit violent crimes in the US against US citizens. The perception is that the Dems favor the rights of illegals over those of American citizens.

Conclusion

Due to the foregoing, Trump’s current approval rating this month is the lowest it has been since his reelection. The fallout from the current problems is threatening to undue all of his prior accomplishments. With the midterm elections looming both he and the country need a quick and decisive end to the war. If the Dems were to take control of even one of the two houses of Congress nothing of substance will be accomplished going forward. His programs will be thwarted, and he may even be impeached again.

We are literally fighting this war for the sake of our children and grandchildren. Do we want to leave them a planet that is perpetually under the risk of nuclear war or one that is safe? That was a rhetorical question. I know the answer. Do you?

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