Tag: nuclear-weapons

ENOUGH ALREADY

As always, the contents of this blog are a compendium of multiple media reports supplemented by my personal opinion, where indicated.

Like many of you I have become extremely frustrated by the lack of progress regarding the negotiations between Iran and the US. As you know, we quickly and easily defeated Iran militarily, destroyed its Navy, killed several layers of its leadership, knocked out its communications systems and have been choking its economy through the blockade of the Hormuz Strait. Some of you may recall that in a previous blog I opined that the military victory was the easy part. Now comes the hard part – winning the peace.

Negotiations have dragged on for weeks. At the present time, they are at a virtual standstill. We have made our demands clear, which include, among other things, no nuclear weapons, no enriched uranium, cease fomenting terrorism, and allowing free and unfettered passage through the Hormuz Strait. These are non-negotiable. They are the main reasons for the war in the first place. If we don’t get them, we will have wasted our time, money, and political capital for nothing.

Iran has not made any meaningful, substantive counteroffer. It is not even clear that its negotiators have the authority to agree to a legitimate deal and enforce Iran’s side of it. Iran continues to insist it will not negotiate the above issues. Instead, it wants to discuss the possible reopening of the Hormuz Strait, which, under international law, it had no legal authority to close in the first place. Its latest proposal called for the complete withdrawal of US forces from the area as a prerequisite for further negotiations. Naturally, Trump dismissed this sham proposal out of hand, characterizing it as “unacceptable.”

In my opinion Iran has no intention of acceding to our demands. Its strategy is what it has always been, delay, delay, delay and delay some more. And, from their point of view, why not? This “rope-a-dope” strategy has been successful every time with previous Administrations. Iran is betting that at some point public opinion, the rising price of oil, and the impending midterm elections will pressure the US negotiators to accept an inferior deal. Currently, according to the AAA the price of oil at the pump is hovering in the $4.50 range, and history tells us it will increase even further over the Memorial Day weekend. Before the war the price averaged $3.00. This is unacceptable.

Oddly enough whereas our allies are mostly supporting the Administration’s war efforts it has been getting strong (and inane, I might add) criticism from the Dem Party politicians, their allies in the media, and the anti-Israel/antisemites. Many Dem politicians have been characterizing the war as “illegal” due to the absence of Congressional approval and “reckless.” For example, Senator Tammy Duckworth and Rep. John Garamendi have characterized the war as a “quagmire.”

One problem for the Administration has been the contradictory messaging. For example, Trump has always described the war as a “short excursion” that would end in a “matter of weeks.” It has been almost three months, and the end does not appear to be in sight. Indeed, recently White House deputy press secretary, Anna Kelly told Fox News that Trump “is not in a rush” to end the war.

The latest Pew Research poll disclosed that Americans now disapprove of the war by 61% to 37%. This is exactly what the Iranians are banking on. In my opinion this level of disapproval will increase if the negotiations continue to drag on and the price of oil remains high, in which case it would likely impact the midterm elections.

Conclusion

Normally, I agree with Trump’s policies and actions. With respect to the Iran War, I agree it was necessary for all the reasons that have been cited in my previous blogs and elsewhere. I applaud his desires to try to reach a negotiated settlement to avoid unnecessary bloodshed. However, in my view the negotiations have gone on long enough.

It is clear to me that Iran will never agree to cease its nuclear ambitions, surrender its enriched uranium, allow free and unfettered access through the Hormuz Strait, nor cease fomenting terrorism throughout the ME and the world. Trump gave negotiations a chance. It’s becoming apparent that they will not culminate in a satisfactory deal.

I say, don’t fall for the “rope-a-dope.” Why are we negotiating anyway? We won; they lost. This should be an unconditional surrender where we tell them what we want and they comply, or else.

This may be our one and only chance to settle things with Iran in a manner that ensures a non-nuclear future. I say, stop “pussyfooting around.” Now, is the time to “drop the hammer.” I say employ any and all means to confiscate the enriched uranium, verify that Iran’s nuclear program has ended, and open the Hormuz Strait.

Enough already! We are on the one-yard line. Punch it in!

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DEAL OR NO DEAL

As always, the contents of this blog are a compendium of multiple media reports supplemented by my personal opinion where indicated.

Below please find my observations, thoughts and opinions with respect to the war with Iran:

  1. Here’s a statement on which all sane, rational, objective persons can agree. IRAN CAN NEVER BE ALLOWED TO POSSESS NUCLEAR CAPABILITY! Anyone who cannot endorse that statement needs to have their head examined. Furthermore, they should be automatically disqualified from holding any responsible government political office or leadership position (on the grounds of deficient mental acuity). Apparently, that includes many if not most of the Dem politicians.
  2. Trump did not want a war. He reiterated that point over and over again. He wanted to make a deal, but a deal the US could live with such as (1) an Iran devoid of nuclear capability, (2) unfettered and independent inspections, and (3) penalties for non-compliance, among other things. The Iranian leadership has been gaslighting us on this for decades. They say they want to make a deal, but they don’t really want to do so. Like I said in my previous blog it’s the Iranian version of “rope-a-dope.”
  3. A nuclear capable Iran would pose an existential threat not only to Israel, not only to the ME, but to the entire world. Its leaders are religious fanatics. They hate and want to kill anyone who is not a “true believer.” They are fanatical enough to use it, even if it would mean mutual destruction. They simply don’t care.
  4. The concept that America is protected by two vast oceans is outdated. In a war we would be in range of our enemies’ ballistic missiles. Moreover, there is the threat from within posed by terrorist cells.
  5. As I write this, the war is eleven days old. Militarily, it has been a success beyond all expectations. In that short period the US and Israel have destroyed Iran’s Air Force, sunken in excess of 60 naval vessels (which constituted most of its navy), and taken out most of its missiles and missile launchers. 
  6. Enjoying complete air superiority, Israeli and US bombers have had free rein to attack any targets they choose. As I write this, they have destroyed more than 5,500 targets inside Iran, and Trump has said there will be more to come.
  7. They have killed the Supreme Leader, virtually all of the top echelon of leaders and advisors and most of the second tier.
  8. Trump has made it clear that the Ayatollah’s replacement must have his support, or else he won’t “last long.” We don’t want to end up with a government of more of the same. They have chosen Mojtaba Khamenel, son of the late Supreme Leader, who likely will likely be more of the same.
  9. Anyone who doubts the urgency and legitimacy of this war should listen to Steve Witkoff, the US’s co-chief negotiator. He told Fox News that at the latest meeting the Iranian negotiators’ first comment was to brag about how they had surreptitiously developed 460kg of 60% enriched uranium. It’s been estimated that Iran could have enriched it up to 90%, which is weapons grade, in a mere ten days or fewer. At that point Iran would have possessed nuclear weapons.
  10. Iran tried to gaslight Witkoff by insisting its nuclear goals were peaceful, but Witkoff denoted that if that were true there would have been no need to enrich beyond 20%.
  11. The Iranians told Witkoff they viewed it as their “inalienable right” to develop such weapons. Witkoff responded that it was our “inalienable right” to stop them. At that point it was clear that there would be no deal.
  12. The Strait of Hormuz, which is just South of Iran, is a vital choke point for oil that is shipped to and from the ME. Some 20% of the world’s oil is shipped through it. In order to disrupt the oil markets Iran has attempted to blockade it and attack ships traversing it. A few days ago, it sunk three oil tankers, and it sought to mine the strait even though Trump had warned them not to do it.
  13. As a result of Iran’s actions, the price of oil has been fluctuating wildly. A few days ago, it hit a high of $119.50 per barrel before retreating to $90 on Monday. We sunk their warships, which is good, but we’re not completely out of the woods yet. It has been reported that Iran still has a multitude of small boats, minesweepers and sea explosives.
  14. The International Energy Agency, which for decades has monitored global crude oil supplies and helped to prevent price shocks, announced that its 32 member countries would release 400 million barrels of oil from their respective strategic reserves. That would represent the largest release ever and the first such coordinated action since 2022. However, the IEA has not yet released details about when countries will start releasing oil, nor how much they will be able to put into the market at a time. The goal is to moderate rising oil prices prospectively.
  15. Hezbollah, in an ill-advised strategic move, has been attacking Israel with barrages of rockets. Israel has responded with waves of airstrikes in Lebanon and an extensive ground campaign. To date, more than 630 people have been killed in Lebanon, and some 1,500 others have been injured.
  16. The primary critics of the war have been the Dem politicians and their allies in the media. They can’t help themselves. As I have said in prior blogs this war is not one of choice. It is of necessity. This is not a replay of the Bush Administration’s false claims of “weapons of mass destruction.” Naturally the Dems have been critical. First, they claimed that it was illegal since Congress was not consulted beforehand, and only Congress has the constitutional authority to declare war. Nevertheless, precedent for a president starting a war is clearly on Trump’s side. Presidents have been doing so all the way back to Thomas Jefferson and the Barbary Pirates Wars (beginning in 1803). The idea of consulting with Congress on war strategy is absurd on its face. There would be no confidentiality. One does not disclose to the enemy when and where one will be attacking. That claim was thwarted.
  17. Now, many of them are still claiming there is no clearcut strategy. They just don’t “get it.” For example, Senator Richard Blumenthal (D CT) told reporters, “I emerged from [last Tuesday’s] briefing [to the Senate Armed Services Committee] as dissatisfied and angry, frankly, as I have from any past briefing in my 15 years.” I say, why, about what? Our goals are crystal clear. Chuck Schumer (dead man walking politically) still professes that Trump’s justification for the war is “confusing” and exhibits “blatant disregard” for [the safety of] American soldiers. I didn’t realize he was that ignorant of history. Maybe, he should research the preamble to WWII and read my last two blogs.
  18. Although Iran cannot defeat us militarily, it does present a real clear and present danger via possible terrorist attacks. It likely has a plethora of terror cells in the US that it could activate if it hasn’t already. We are especially vulnerable since the Dems have caused a government shutdown which is undermining the effectiveness of the DHS and the secret service, which have responsibility for ferreting out and preventing terrorist attacks. I urge Congress to agree on a deal to end the shutdown asap. (Schumer, are you listening, or are you confused about that too?

Conclusion

Iran miscalculated our power and our resolve. They were not the first, and they won’t be the last to do so. They are paying dearly for their miscalculation. Iran’s only hope is to turn American public opinion against the war like with the Vietnam War.

We must exhibit resolve in the face of economic adversity. This war is too important, and I don’t believe it will last a long time. I view it as short-term pain, long-term gain. I repeat, IRAN CANNOT BE ALLOWED TO HAVE NUCLEAR CAPABILITY.

No deals, except unconditional surrender.

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