As always, the contents of this blog constitute a compendium of various media communications supplemented by my personal opinion, where indicated.
The recently distributed 14-point Memo of Understanding between the US and Iran has drawn significant controversy. Everyone has an opinion. Comments and opinions have ranged from extremely positive (Trump, Vance and Rubio) to extremely negative, if not derisive (among most Dems, much of the media and even some Repubs). All this, and the ink is barely dry on the document.
In my opinion, people have to take a deep breath and recognize the MOU for what it is and what it is not. It is not a peace agreement. Essentially, what it is is a 60-day cease fire agreement, nothing more, nothing less, and it should be evaluated as such. Moreover, don’t be surprised if the 60-day limit gets extended, perhaps multiple times.
I believe it would be of little value to delve into the weeds of the MOU at this time. Suffice to say, the wording is vague and needs to be refined. Also, some key issues have been omitted, such as Iran’s sponsoring of so-called “proxies,” or are open to clarification, such as (1) the treatment of the $300 billion of “frozen” Iranian funds, (2) the details of the collection, disposal, and/or destruction of Iran’s nuclear dust, and (3) the verification process of various matters, or entirely omitted, such as Israel’s separate war with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
I wouldn’t characterize the MOU as “not worth the paper it is printed on” as some have. Rather, it should be evaluated as a first step in the peace negotiation process. I will denote, however, that it is a bad deal for Israel. It doesn’t address its major concerns with respect to Iran or its proxies. Some supporters, including me, would even characterize it as a betrayal of our staunchest ally in the ME.
I expect all parties to interpret elements of it differently. There is enough in it for both sides to interpret it as a “victory.” Hopefully, these issues will be ironed out sufficiently. Remember, as I opined in a previous blog the “devil is in the details.”
In the short-term I think the most significant matter is the opening of the Hormuz Strait. It will get the oil flowing, which will produce positive tangible results of lower energy prices for both businesses and consumers and ultimately improve the economy. As I have discussed in previous blogs the mid-term elections are approaching, and history tells us that the number one issue for voters is always the economy. Recent surveys have identified the number one issue for voters as affordability and the cost of living e.g. putting food on the table, paying the mortgage or rent, and healthcare. The Iran War and other key matters are simply not as important to most voters at the present time. Many of them have limited knowledge of the issues and are blissfully unaware of Iran’s nuclear threat.
Conclusion
I have significant misgivings concerning the current iteration of the peace process. I feel like we are missing our one chance to deal with Iran once and for all. I fear that the vague wording of the MOU will yield a long, drawn-out peace treaty negotiation process. This will enable Iran to do what it has always done – lie, cheat, obfuscate, and delay, delay, and delay some more until US public opinion forces us to accept an agreement that does not meet all of our objectives.
As a means of defending the MOU President Trump has reiterated that if Iran fails to “live up” to its end of the MOU he can and will resume military action. Sounds great, but I foresee problems with that. For example, suppose Iran resumes impeding the flow of oil through the Hormuz Strait or supports a terrorist attack by one of its cells in the US or by Hezbollah against Israel. Would any of those actions trigger additional military action? Resuming military action would be a drastic step and would be very unpopular with our allies and even worse, with the voters especially this close to the midterms. Furthermore, I believe Iran will test the US’s resolve by committing a series of “minor” violations.
Finally, and most significantly, although Iran fears and respects Trump he will not be president forever. Iran can take the long view. Eventually, the US will elect a president with less fortitude and with a more flexible attitude toward Iran and the ME in general. Then, I fear, Iran will be able to take advantage.
We Built It Blog by Larry Jacob 