It looks to me like the Dems are getting desperate. Not the candidates. They are chugging along in their own bubble, blithely unaware of the opinions of the electorate. Instead, they are kowtowing to the liberal media and the twitter crowd.
The Party pros, however, know better. They are coming to the same realization that many of us have perceived all along: that the current field of candidates is weak, flawed and too far to the left to win a general election. As time goes on, they are perceiving that it is becoming increasingly more unlikely that the eventual nominee will be able to “walk back” some of the outrageous and unrealistic policies being advocated. More on that later. He/she will need a GPS to find the “middle” on key issues.
In assessing the 2020 election my advice is don’t put too much credence in the polls. As we all found out in 2016 they are flawed. They underestimate President Trump’s support. I don’t know whether the flaws lie in the manner of questioning, the sampling, that many Trump supporters are reluctant to admit it to the pollster, or some combination of the three. Either way, the flaws are there.
Don’t believe the mainstream media either. Most of them are so biased that they continually accentuate the President’s flaws and downplay, or even ignore, his accomplishments. If you doubt me, just tune in to CNN, MSNBC or the networks any day. I am amazed how the likes of Chet Lemon, Brian Stelter, Chris Matthews or Chris Cuomo, to name a few, can maintain any credibility with the public in view of their obvious bias.
I used to respect reporters/commentators such as David Gregory and Wolf Blitzer, but I feel that they, too, are no longer objective. Frankly, I don’t see how anyone who is serious about learning what’s really happening in the world can rely exclusively on those sources for their news.
Don’t be fooled by the impeachment fiasco. I have published various blogs on this topic, and I see no need to repeat myself. Suffice to say, every day, it becomes more and more obvious that it is a sham; there is no impeachable crime to be found. I view it as an impeachment hearing in search of a crime, any crime, that would support the narrative. As we saw when President Clinton was impeached, all the process does is create more support for the president.
As I said above, the Dem Party pros know that the Dem field is a loser, regardless of who might win the nomination. None of the candidates has resonated with the electorate, and all of them have moved way left of the mainstream. Most of them have continually pandered to liberal leaders, such as Reverend Al and AOC, liberal commentators, and special interests in a manner that is very obvious and almost demeaning.
Also, many Dem voters perceive their more outlandish policies, such as the New Green Deal, open borders, Medicare for all, tax reform and free college tuition for all, as favoring illegal aliens over them. US Civil Rights Commission spokesperson, Peter Kirsanow, opines that this has led to a “populist mistrust” on the part of many Dem voters, particularly minorities.
To illustrate my point, let’s briefly consider the current front runners – Biden, Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg.
Biden looks lost on both the debate stage and the campaign trail. He is a human gaffe machine, committing one faux paux after another. For example, in the last debate he bragged that he has the support of the “only female black senator.” The problem is Kamala Harris, who is black, was standing a few feet away from him, and she definitely is not a Biden supporter. His comment evoked laughter not only from the other candidates, but also from the audience and most likely many people watching at home. It is not a good sign when people laugh AT you, as opposed to WITH you.
I believe he will also be dragged down by the shenanigans of his son, Hunter. Furthermore, I believe his current lead (28%, nationally, according to CNN) is based on name recognition, a perception that he can beat Mr. Trump, and his lack of exposure. How can he possibly hold up under the rigors of a long, contentious election campaign?
Warren has alienated much of the Dem voters with her constant lies and her cockamamie policies, such as her “Medicare for all” and tax plans. Following repeated attacks by her rival candidates, she was forced to admit that it would necessitate a tax increase even on the middle class to pay for it. Historically, advocating a tax increase has always led to election disaster.
In addition, she is weak in the Wall Street, AA and Hispanic communities. Moreover, a recent NYT/Siena Poll disclosed a glaring lack of “likeabilty” as well as concerns, by 3:1, among Dem voters that she is too far to the left. Indeed, the same poll revealed that a significant number of Biden supporters would shift their support to Mr. Trump if she were to become the nominee.
Sanders is an admitted socialist. He has a small but vociferous, frustrated and angry hardcore of supporters. They feel they were “cheated” out of the nomination in 2016, and many of them are not in a mood to support another candidate. He may be able to wield some influence in a deadlocked convention, but an avowed socialist, which he is, has no chance to become president.
Buttigieg is a mystery to me. I would bet that most voters know next to nothing about him, except that his name is difficult to spell or even pronounce. For instance, in a recent Quinnipiac Poll 47% of SC voters reported they did not know enough about him to even express an opinion. He seems like a nice, articulate person but very light on experience.
Moreover, by all accounts he has been a mediocre mayor of a small city in Indiana. How could that limited resume possibly translate into running the US? Also, he is not particularly popular in the minority community in South Bend, which, as we know, is a crucial constituency for any Dem candidate. Therefore, it is hard for me to take him seriously despite his strong poll numbers in Iowa (24%) and NH (25%). According to Lisa Hagen, political reporter for US News and World Report, once the scene shifts to SC, Nevada and elsewhere, where there is a more diverse electorate, his support will likely melt away. For example, a recent Quinnipiac Poll disclosed he has less than 1% support among AA voters in SC. All this does not auger well for him.
The best indicator that the Party pros think the current field is too weak to defeat Mr. Trump is all the recent talk about new candidates. In point of fact, a recent NYT/Siena Poll disclosed that, as yet, none of the current group has been able to win back the crucial white working class voters that swung over to Mr. Trump in 2016.
Additionally, the same poll showed that Mr. Trump’s Electoral College majority from 2016 has remained largely intact, especially in the six battleground states – Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan and North Carolina – that will likely decide the election. It seems like many Dems would welcome a fresh face or two, but I view it as a sign of desperation. Perhaps, that is why Obama has not endorsed Biden.
Also, the 2018 results seem like an anomaly, not a portent. The same poll showed that 2/3 of the Trump voters who voted for Dem congresspersons in 2018 intend to return to Mr. Trump in 2020.
With respect to the potential saviors, Mike Bloomberg, the former mayor of NY, has already declared his candidacy. As a multi-billionaire, he has money to burn. Unfortunately, he has two obvious flaws, which will, in my opinion, doom his candidacy:
1. He is a very dull speaker, not the least bit inspiring like, for example, Messrs. Bill Clinton, Obama and Trump. I saw excerpts of his recent speech. I would characterize it as a cure for insomnia.
2. As mayor, his signature policy was “stop and frisk.” It worked very well as evidenced by the precipitous drop in the city’s murder rate, but it infuriated blacks and other minorities who viewed it as racial profiling.
I believe Hillary wants to try again, but she is still unpopular, and she has more “baggage” than a fully-loaded 747.
Michelle Obama would be a reasonable possibility. At the moment, she is very popular in some circles, although I’m not sure that would hold up once she begins to campaign and articulate her policies.
At the present time, both ladies are being coy about running, but I think there is a good chance one of them will declare. We’ll see.
The 2020 campaign is shaping up as one of the most interesting in history. Stay tuned.