Month: July 2022

Sadly, President Joe Biden’s performance as president reminds me of that dance called the limbo – “how low can you go?” Joe Biden’s job approval and the public’s confidence in him and his policies have already sunken to record levels, and they will likely continue to sink lower and lower. Like the limbo the question is “how low can they go?” I don’t know, but I would not be surprised if they bottomed out in the low 30’s. See below for my reasons for this prediction.

According to Five Thirty Eight’s latest poll Biden’s job approval rating is 39%, which it reports is the worst of any elected president at this point in his tenure since the end of WWII. (Probably, the only person happy about this is former president Jimmy Carter.) The latest Real Clear Politics poll disclosed that only 18% believe the country is “heading in the right direction.” 18%! Actually, I’m surprised it is even that high. I would like to ask that 18% why they feel that way.

It’s easy to see the reasons for the poll numbers. I have published various blogs describing Biden’s far left (some would say, socialist) policies and predicting that, inevitably, they would ruin the economy (as well as the rest of the country). Anyone with even a basic understanding of economics would have to agree. There is no need to rehash them, in detail, now but below pIease find a few statistics for illustrative purposes. These are not my statistics. I obtained them from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and various media sources (not Fox News).

1. The current rate of inflation is 9/1%, which is the highest level in over 40 years. Some of you may remember that last November, when the rate was 6.8%, Biden said inflation was “transitory” and had already reached its peak. Well, to no one’s surprise, he was wrong. It is higher and will likely go still higher. Inflation is very tenacious and insidious. It impacts every facet of our lives, and once it takes hold it is extremely hard to root out. If you doubt me, just research the inflation hell we went through in the 1970s. Everybody loses, regardless of color, gender or religion. Hourly workers’ paychecks buy less and less each month even if they get a raise. Retirees on a fixed income watch helplessly as their life savings melt away like a summer snow. Middle age workers seeking to build a nest egg for their future retirement or their kids’ education are thwarted at every turn. Young people just getting started are unable to start a family or buy that first house. In the face of all this, Biden and his supporters have not shown any remorse for having caused this calamity, nor offered any concrete plans to fix it, nor even exhibited any empathy for those who are suffering.
2. Gas at the pump is has hit record highs. Prices have come down slightly in the last few weeks to around $4.50/gallon for regular, but that reprieve may prove to be “transitory,” pun intended. Moreover, let’s remember that when Biden took office on January 20, 2021 it was around $2.40/gallon, and according to AAA one year ago it was an average of $3.15. This is particularly damaging to Biden as it is “spin-proof.” People are reminded of it every time they “gas up.” Moreover, most people are not being fooled by the Administration’s lame repeated attempts to blame the high prices on Putin, COVID, Trump, or anyone else. It’s all about the Keystone Pipeline shut-down. Remember the first law of prices is supply vs. demand.
3. For the month of June prices of all goods and services are up substantially from May – for example, groceries, 12%, electricity, 14%, airplane flights, 34%, and lodging, 11%, to name a few examples. We are reminded of it every time we shop. Furthermore, we have been forced to endure periodic and arbitrary shortages due to chronic supply chain issues (e.g. baby formula). Not only are prices up, but package quantities are smaller.
4. The producer price index increased 11.3% from May to June. This is particularly alarming as the PPI is a portent of future retail prices.
5. In certain areas of the country, for example, Manhattan, one has difficulty finding affordable places to live The average rental in Manhattan now exceeds $5,000 per month, that is, if one can find a vacancy at all in a decent neighborhood.
6. According to another BLS release “real” hourly wages (wages adjusted for inflation) declined 1% in June. In other words, the average worker fell even further behind.

Due to all of the foregoing as well as all the Biden Administration’s non-economic failures, which I have also detailed in past blogs, it is no wonder his approval ratings are so low. In addition, many Dem politicians, such as Sheila Jackson Lee and Joaquin Castro, as well as political analysts on left-leaning CNN and MSNBC, and left-leaning media outlets, such as the NY Times and Washington Post, are beginning to criticize him. Finally, some Dem politicians, for instance, Senator Tim Ryan, have declined to have Biden campaign with him even though he (Ryan) is embroiled in a tough re-election battle. These are not good signs. In view of all of the above, I wonder why Biden’s poll numbers aren’t even lower.

There is more bad economic news on the horizon. One of the best ways to cool inflation is for the Fed to raise interest rates. We are long overdue for a rate increase. Comerica Bank’s chief economist, Bill Adams, is predicting the Fed will raise its rate at least 3/4% in July. Some economists are predicting 1/%. That would be an abnormally high increase at one time, but it may be what is needed to tame inflation before it becomes “runaway” inflation. Such an action would surely plunge us into a recession, although many economists believe we are already in one. It would increase the cost of borrowing, another expense increase for both consumers and businesses, and likely devastate the housing market.

CONCLUSION

A few days ago, Biden issued a statement acknowledging that the “economic pain” being felt by Americans was “unsustainable.” On that Biden and I are in rare agreement, however, he failed to put forth any plan to resolve it. That leads one to conclude that his statement of “sympathy” was just empty words, or as he might say, “a bunch of malarkey.” In a similar vein he stated his intention to “urge Congress to act this month on legislation to reduce the cost of everyday expenses.” Again, he failed to put forth any plan to do so. More malarkey.

Furthermore, it is worth noting, that most of those in Biden’s inner circle were chosen for their diversity; few have had any prior practical, business, economic, or financial experience. Not exactly optimal for dealing with the current state of affairs.

As I and many others have been saying, historically, the number 1 issue for voters, absent a war, is the economy. It will almost certainly be so in 2022 and 2024. Yet, Dems have steadfastly avoided the issue. Their focus has been on abortion and the January 6 hearings, which, though important to the far left “wokers” and “tweeters,” are far down on most voters’ lists of issues. Part of that is because Dems have nothing else to run on, no accomplishments, but whose fault is that?

As I said, Biden’s performance is becoming a significant drag on the Dem Party’s prospects in November. Many Dems up for re-election are starting to panic. Some would like to have him removed pursuant to Article 25 of the Constitution. Certainly, there is ample justification for that as anyone can see every night on the news. However, the best thing Biden has going for him is that his replacement would be Kamala Harris, who, based on her performance to date, would be even more incompetent. Yes, the Dems have put themselves firmly between the proverbial “rock and a hard place.” Well earned, and well deserved.

James Caan was the quintessential New Yorker – brash, tough, and in-your-face. His persona was “this is me; here I am. If you don’t like it, tough.” That is the attitude he exhibited in most of his acting roles throughout his 60-plus years career, at least in his most memorable roles. How did he develop that persona? As he told one interviewer a few years ago, “I learned it growing up in New York. You had to be tough to survive.” You had to “know who to push and who not to push.” In addition, he often attributed his success to learning how and when to say “no” at an audition. In other words, if he didn’t feel a part was right for him he had no qualms about turning it down. (As you will see below, this philosophy resulted in him turning down many parts that led to successes for others.)

James Edmund Caan was born on March 26, 1940 in The Bronx, New York City, NY, but he grew up in Queens. He had a brother, Ronnie, and a sister, Barbara. His parents were Jewish working class immigrants who had emigrated from Germany. His father was a butcher.

He attended Michigan State University for two years. His dream was to make the MSU football team, but he wasn’t good enough. He transferred to Hofstra University on Long Island, but he didn’t graduate. It doesn’t sound like he was much of a student. Interestingly, two of his classmates were Lainie Kazan and Francis Ford Coppola who would later play a significant role in Caan’s career.

At some point, he developed an interest in acting. He applied for, was accepted to and enrolled in NYC’s Neighborhood Playhouse School of the Theatre. He studied there for five years. “I just fell in love with acting,” he told one interviewer. He added, “of course all my improvs ended in violence.” No surprise there.

Caan began his career in the early 1960s appearing in off-Broadway plays that only real aficionados of the theatre would remember such as La Ronde and Blood, Sweat and Stanley Poole. Shortly thereafter, he progressed to Broadway where he starred in The Rain People, which was directed by Coppola. Additionally, he appeared in the usual hit TV shows in which all up-and-coming actors seem to appear, such as Route 66, Dr. Kildare, Combat, and The Untouchables. During this period he also appeared in a series of nondescript movies that few people, if any, saw and fewer remember. The one exception was Howard Hawkes’ movie, El Dorado, starring John Wayne and Robert Mitchum.

According to Wikipedia his first movie role in 1963 was an uncredited role where he played a “soldier with a radio.” I guess an aspiring actor hungry for work and experience has to start somewhere.

His first memorable role was playing terminally-ill (cancer) NFL running back, Brian Piccolo in the TV movie, Brian’s Song (1971), co-starring Billy Dee Williams as NFL superstar running back Gayle Sayers. It was a perfect role for Caan. Early in the movie he portrayed Piccolo as a glib, wise-cracking, undertalented, overachiever who made the team through sheer determination and hard work. As the movie went on and Piccolo’s cancer progressed Caan portrayed his struggles superbly. Viewers were captivated by Piccolo’s/Caan’s battle with the disease and his strong friendship with Sayers. (Don’t forget this was 1971, and Hollywood rarely portrayed such relationships.) Based on a true story it was a huge success, earned Caan an Emmy nomination, and put him on the map as an actor. As frequently happens in Hollywood the story is that, at first, Caan turned down the role without even reading the script, but, luckily for him, he changed his mind after reading it.

The next year came The Godfather. We all know what happened there. Caan got to play the signature role of his career. The Godfather was a mega-hit both critically and at the box office. It won 11 Academy Awards, including Best Picture. According to CBS News it grossed $135 million domestically (equivalent to $711 million today), and $270 million worldwide. It spawned two sequels, one of which, Godfather II, many critics consider to be as good as or better than the original, which is a real rarity. It featured an-all-Star cast led by Marlon Brando and Al Pacino. Originally, Caan was slated to play Michael, but Coppola wanted Al Pacino for that role, so Caan was switched to Sonny. Reportedly, one of the actors he “beat out” for the role was another young actor named Robert De Niro. He was the central figure in two of the more memorable scenes in the movie: (1) being killed at the toll booth (how many bullets does it take to kill someone) and (2) the scene where he beats up Carlo with a garbage can cover (adlibbed). Caan always said that one of the things that made The Godfather successful was that everyone “really enjoyed making it, and that comes off on the screen.” Finally, there were many memorable quotes. See below for my favorites. What are yours?

In the course of his career Caan turned down various starring roles in successful movies that turned out to be successes for others. Some of these movies were M*A*S*H, the French Connection, and Apocalypse Now.

Another of my favorite Caan movies was Misery, based on the Stephen King novel and co-starring Kathy Bates. Caan played a famous author who is kidnapped by a deranged fan (Bates). Many actors had rejected the role because the character spent most of the movie confined in a bed by Bates’ character. But, Caan accepted. It was a different role for him, and it was another hit. In addition, I liked him in Cinderella Liberty where he plays a sailor who meets a woman while on liberty. He falls in love and wants to marry her. His commanding officer refuses to grant him leave to get married. Caan asks why. The quote, which anyone who has served in the military will identify with, is (and I paraphrase): “You may think you’re in the United States; you may think you’re in the State of New York; but what you’re in is the Navy, and the Navy says no leave.”

CONCLUSION

Caan was married four times and had five kids, one of which is the actor Scot Caan (Hawaii Five-0). Caan was an accomplished martial artist, and he liked to participate in rodeos as a steer roper. He would call himself the “only Jewish cowboy from NY on the professional rodeo cowboy circuit.”

Caan passed away on July, 6, 1922 in LA at the age of 82. Jimmy (as he was often called), you entertained us for over 60 years. Rest in peace.

My favorite Godfather quotes:

1. “I don’t want my brother coming out of that toilet with just his dick in his hands.”
2. “Revenge is a dish that tastes best when served cold.”
3. “Lawyers can steal more money with a briefcase than a thousand men with guns and masks.”
4. “Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.”
5. And my favorite: “I’ll make him an offer he can’t refuse.”

The overwhelming majority of Americans view July 4th, Independence Day, as a festive day, a day to celebrate America’s birthday with family and friends, and an opportunity to honor those who have fought and died so that the rest of us can enjoy the freedoms and privileges that some of us take for granted. Anyone who has even an inkling of America’s history would appreciate that. Yet, there is a small, but vocal, cadre of ungrateful, oblivious persons who choose to ignore the positives and choose use Independence Day to air their grievances about life in the US. They are aided and abetted by a woke social media and a complicit press, many of whom share their warped opinions.

Yes, I know America is not and has not been perfect. I am cognizant of the manner in which we mistreated Indigenous Peoples, slaves and people of color, generally. Also, I recognize that the Bill of Rights entitles the abovementioned malcontents to have their say. I am not suggesting that they should be prevented from speaking their minds, but still it angers me and many others who share my view that they choose to do so on “America’s Birthday.” This bashing appears to be uniquely American. I am not aware of people in other countries acting in this manner.

In my opinion, it is an insult to those who sacrificed to establish and maintain our way of life. Personally, I don’t know anyone who shares their views. Do you? I am not referring to honest political debate, which is healthy and appropriate. More on this later.

Some of the quotes in the media attributable to celebrities, for instance, have been well beyond merely critical and disrespectful. They are downright nasty, thoughtless, inane and disgusting. Moreover, as I said, the press and social media give them the forum to express those opinions. There have been many examples in the last few days, but I will give you just a few:

1. Bette Midler – “4th of July has been canceled due to a shortage of independence.” For the record, “The Divine Miss M,” as she is sometimes called, comes from humble beginnings. Her father was a painter and an employee at a naval base; her mother was a seamstress. America afforded her the opportunity to achieve fame and wealth. If she had been born virtually anywhere else in the world she would likely have not been been able to do so. America is probably the only country that gives someone, anyone, the opportunity to rise above the circumstances of their birth and become successful. We have all seen thousands of examples of this regardless of the person’s gender, religion, or skin color. Yes, some people may have an easier road to success, but everyone has a chance. Rather than being grateful, she has been a constant critic.

2. Michael Moore – “I cannot in good conscience continue to accept ‘full citizenship’ privileges.” (By the way, what does that even mean? Which ones are Moore ready to give up, and which ones does he want to keep? I doubt Moore has thought that through. Typical Moore inanity.) Moore came from a working class family. His dad worked on the assembly line for GM; his mom was a secretary. Even though I don’t agree with his politics, I recognize that he, too, is an American success story. He is also a constant critic of the system that enabled him to succeed.

3. Jessica Chastain – She is a fine actress, but that is where it ends. She has displayed a lack of class as well as disrespect. Her birthday present to America was a picture of herself giving the “double bird” to the country with the caption “Happy Independence Day from me and my reproductive organs.” Obviously, this was a lame protest of the Supreme Court’s decision regarding Roe v Wade. Like many other critics of that decision, she fails to grasp or chooses to ignore how the Constitution applies to abortion. But, that complicated and heavily nuanced topic is best reserved for another blog on another day.

4. Kim Kardashian and Kris Jenner, not wanting to lose out on free publicity, posted the following on Instagram: “4th of July has been canceled due to a shortage of independence. Sincerely, women.”

5. Rep. Anna Eshoo (D CA) tweeted “this Fourth of July is ‘overshadowed by the dark reality of the Supreme Court’s decision that makes half of America less equal.’ ” Oh really? Where’s the half? Abortion is still legal and obtainable in many, if not most, states, including hers. Dumb comment on many levels.

6. ESPN writer Howard Bryant expressed his opinion in a column entitled “baseball, barbecue and losing freedom this Fourth of July.” ESPN would be better off sticking to sports, which they do quite well, rather than venturing into other areas in which their lack of knowledge is embarrassing.

7.. Les Dogg, whom I had never heard of, is apparently an entertainer of some renown. Her imprudent comments on America’s birthday were “not land of the free” and “feels like we’re going back to slavery.” Just a wee bit of an exaggeration.

8. NPR, which is a publicly-funded media outlet. felt it necessary to cancel its customary reading of the Declaration of Independence, claiming the document has “flaws and deeply ingrained hypocrisies,” in favor of a column bemoaning how “America is ‘tearing itself apart.’ ” Again, stick to what you are supposed to do.

9. Last, but not least, there was Joe Biden’s latest faux pas. At the end of his holiday speech he forgot to say “God Bless America.” Was it not written on his cue card? Dr. Jill had to remind him to say it, which she did on an open mic. Embarrassing, but we have come to expect things like that from our president.

I could give many more examples, but I think you get the point. Enough is enough. How do those who fought for this country feel about this? Fox News showed one WWII veteran who was literally moved to tears by all the disrespect. He was wondering, “what did we [his fellow soldiers] die for?” How sad.

My advice to these people is save such criticisms for another day. We may admire your singing, acting or whatever god given talent you possess, but we are not inclined to follow your political “advice.” In fact, most of you are not as smart or well-informed as the average American. You are not aware of the average American’s daily struggles to support their families, especially in these times of “Bidenflation.” You live in a bubble, an ivory tower. All the polls show that the issues you spout off about are way down on the list of the average American’s concerns.

In my experience, the preponderance of everyday Americans shares my view on the US. I have never met a single person who criticizes America to that extent. Sure, we may disagree on political issues, but deep down we realize how lucky we were to have been born in this country. Essentially, we have all won the “birth lottery.” We know it; apparently, you don’t.

CONCLUSION

Social media has many benefits, but it also enables, a small, vocal minority to express themselves over and over again, which gives the impression that their opinions are more representative than they really are. Most Americans are not fooled. As I said, the above celebrity critics are out of touch with the general populace. They don’t speak for us, and we don’t pay any attention to their comments and opinions.

Incidentally, not to beat a dead horse, but according to the latest poll promulgated by The Hill 88% of people think the US is “on the wrong track,” and the latest Gallup Poll reported that only 23% of respondents “have confidence” in the Presidency. In addition, Biden’s approval rating remains in the 30s. It is so bad that many Dems running for election or re-election are avoiding campaigning with him. The latest to do so is Tim Ryan, who is running for the US Senate in Ohio. Lastly, everyone’s favorite uncle, Bernie Sanders, is reportedly considering running again in 2024, and don’t forget Hillary who, despite her protestations, is always lurking. I don’t believe anyone is taking Harris seriously as a viable candidate, but others may emerge as the 2024 elections approach.

Today, July 4th, we will celebrate our nation’s independence. Many of you will celebrate by gathering with family and friends, going to the beach, attending a baseball game, or simply relaxing and enjoying a day off from work.

Many of you have requested a quiz, so In honor of the holiday I have prepared one to test your knowledge, or lack thereof. As usual, no peeking at the internet and do not consult Siri or Alexa.

1. The primary author of the Declaration of Independence was
   a. George Washington
   b. Henry Lee
   c. Benjamin Franklyn
   d. Thomas Jefferson

2. The oldest continuous Independence Day celebration is in what city?
a. Bristol, RI
b. New York, NY
c. Waterbury, CT
d. Philadelphia, PA

3. The origin of the song, “Yankee Doodle Dandy,” was
a. American troops during the Revolutionary War
b. French troops during the RW
c. British military before the RW
d. Hessians at the battle of Trenton, NJ

4. The movie, “Independence Day” starred
a. Tom Cruise
b. Will Smith
c. Morgan Freeman
d. Daniel Day-Lewis

5. The Statue of Liberty was donated by which country?
a. France

b. Spain

c. Canada

d. England

6. Each of the following was a member of the Committee of Five (assigned to draft the Declaration), except:
a. George Washington
b. Roger Sherman
c. John Adams
d. Benjamin Franklyn

7. Who was the only President to have been born on the 4th of July?
a. John Adams
b. Grover Cleveland
c. Calvin Coolidge
d. James Polk

8. Each of the following Presidents died on July 4th, except:
a. John Adams
b. Thomas Jefferson
c. James Monroe
d. James Madison

9. Each of the following is considered to be a “Founding Father,” EXCEPT:
a. John Adams
b. James Monroe
c. Alexander Hamilton
d. James Madison

10. The “Star Spangled banner” was written by Francis Scott Key during which war?
a. French and Indian War
b. American Revolution
c. Civil War
d. War of 1812

11. The origin of the nick-name “Uncle Sam” is purportedly:
a. The Continental Congress
b. The Sons of Liberty
c. Meat packer who supplied meat to the US Army
d. British troops during the RW

12. Who, along with John Adams, is responsible for designating the bald eagle as the US’s National Bird?
a. George Washington
b. Thomas Jefferson
c. Benjamin Franklyn
d. Patrick Henry

13. Which battle was the turning point of the Revolutionary War?
a. Brooklyn Heights
b. Charleston
c. Baltimore
d. Saratoga

14. How many persons signed the Declaration of Independence?
a. 13
b. 26
c. 40
d. 56

15. Which was the first state to ratify the Constitution?
a. Virginia
b. New York
c. Delaware
d. Massachusetts

16. Purportedly, the Independence Day Nathans Hot Dog Eating Contest was first held in
a. 1876
b. 1930
c. 1945
d. 1916

17. Who was one of only two signers of the Declaration of Independence to be elected President?
a. John Adams
b. Andrew Jackson
c. Alexander Hamilton
d. Aaron Burr

18. Although July 4 is recognized as Independence Day, the Continental Congress approved a “resolution of independence” on this date.
a. June 15
b. July 1
c. July 2
d. July 3

19. The first capital of the US following ratification of the Constitution was
a. Washington DC
b. New York City
c. Philadelphia
d. Boston

20. The 14th state of the union was:
a. Maine
b. Georgia
c. Florida
d. Vermont

21. Independence Day became a federal holiday in:

a. 1776

b. 1783

c. 1870

d. 1916

22. In 1778 George Washington celebrated Independence Day with his troops by:

a. Giving everyone a raise

b. A 21-gun salute

c. Giving a rousing speech

d. giving everyone a double ration of rum

23. Each of the following presidents’ faces is sculpted on Mt. Rushmore, EXCEPT:

a. Franklyn Roosevelt

b. Theodore Roosevelt

c. Thomas Jefferson

e. George Washington

24. George Washington crossed the Delaware River on December 25-26, 1776 to defeat the Hessians at which city.

a. Philadelphia

b. New York

c. Monmouth

d. Trenton

25. Which English general surrendered at Yorktown, VA effectively ending the Revolutionary War?

a. Howe

b. Cornwallis

c. Burgoyne

d. Kensington

ANSWERS: 1. (d); 2. (a); 3. (c); 4. (b); 5. (a); 6. (a); 7. (c); 8. (d); 9. (b); 10. (d); 11. (c); 12. (b); 13. (d); 14. (d); 15. (c); 16. (d); 17. (a); 18. (c); 19. (b); 20. (d); 21. (c); 22. (d); 23. (a) 24. (d); 25. (b)

CONCLUSION

Well, there you have it. Let me know how you did.

Enjoy the holiday whatever you do, wherever you go, and with whomever you spend it. Above all, be safe.

Welcome to the Liberal World Order. Chances are most of you had not heard of this term until this week, much less understood what it means and how it affects us. In my view, it is a fancy term for requiring Americans to sacrifice for the benefit of the rest of the world since we don’t deserve what we have. Or, if you prefer, “America Last.”

Wikipedia defines LWO as “the body of rules, norms and institutions that govern relations between the key players on the international stage.” Got it? I’m not sure what all this gobbledygook means, and I bet few, if any, of the bloviators in the Dem Party or the media do either. To me, it sounds like an expression more relevant to the Stalin-era Soviet Union or present-day Communist China rather than the US.

President Joe Biden and his supporters in the Administration and the media have been continually urging us to support their economic policies in support of the LWO. For example, appearing on CNN, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese stated that “the future of the new world order [is at stake],” and “we have to stand firm.” On the contrary, GOP Senator Roger Marshall argued that “the Biden Administration has forgotten they work for the American people and not the ‘liberal world order.’ “

In my view, the term LWO is being used by the far left to justify why (a) we are being forced to pay (according to AAA) a average of $4.84 per gallon for gas at the pump (up a whopping $1.72 from last July), (b) must allow masses of illegals to cross our non-functioning southern border at will, (c) close our eyes to the probability that some of those seeking “political asylum” are, in reality, terrorists, drug smugglers and/or human traffickers, (d) endure the random, brazen and wanton violence being perpetrated by career criminals who rule our city streets, who are rarely prosecuted by “woke” DAs and who are immediately released from our revolving-door jails to commit more crimes while many of us live in fear, and (e) why many of us cannot afford to buy food, find formula for our babies, or provide for our families. It is why we are told we must sacrifice for the common good. Anyone who dares to complain is branded as a racist. How long can we expect these sacrifices to continue? According to President Biden, “as long as it takes,” whatever that means.

Sounds bleak, right? What can we do? How do we fight back? Well, fortunately this is the USA, not the old Soviet Union, Communist China, or even Venezuela, and there is a simple and obvious solution. In America we have elections, and the next cycle is in just a few months. Unlike those other places, in America we can vote the bas***ds out, so to speak. More on that below.

Thirty-four of the Senate seats and all of the House seats are up for re-election this year. In addition, there are two special elections for the Senate. In the Senate the Dems have three advantages: (1) only 14 of those thirty-four seats are currently held by Dems; (2) none those are in states that Trump won in 2020; and (3) five incumbent GOPers are retiring compared to only one Dem. The quality of the replacement candidates will have a significant affect on whether or not the incumbent Party “holds” the particular seat.

It is a historical fact that, with very few exceptions, the Party in power loses Congressional membership in the off-year elections. The question is how many. In the Senate the most seats lost was 13 in 1932. That year the country was in the throes of the Great Depression, and President Herbert Hoover was extremely unpopular for obvious reasons.

In the House the historical average loss is 23 seats. The most was 63 in 2010 under Obama. Historically, House elections have been more likely to be affected by the current political climate, so that will bear watching. Also, normally, local issues play a bigger role. Remember former Speaker Thomas (“Tip”) O’Neal famously said “all politics is local.”

Back to the Senate. According to Inside Elections the key Senate battleground elections will be in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. As of June IE rated AZ, GA, and NV as toss-ups, FL and NC as leaning GOP, NH as leaning Dem, and PA and WI as toss-ups or leaning GOP. Probably, the most vulnerable Dem Senators are Mark Kelly (AZ), and Ralph Warnock (GA) The most vulnerable GOP seats are probably Catherine Masto (NV), Richard Burr (NC), PA where incumbent Pat Toomey is retiring and Ron Johnson (WI). Obviously, that is all subject to change. The situation is likely to be very fluid due to Biden’s declining popularity and job approval. Even though he is not on any ballot he will cast a shadow on the elections. One thing to watch is the number of candidates who decline to have him campaign with them. Keep in mind that with a current 50-50 split the GOP has only to gain one net seat to claim a majority.

CONCLUSION

It is becoming increasingly clear that the attitudes and opinions of the far lefties who have been making policy decisions for the country do not reflect the will of the people. In many cases, a powerful, vocal minority, supported by a biased media, has been imposing its will on the majority, and the majority is not happy. This has been reflected in poll after poll. For example, according to polls conducted by “Ballotpedia News” and “FiveThirty Eight,” Biden’s latest approval rating is 39%, which is historically low. By comparison, Trump’s was 42%. Furthermore, a recently-published AP poll revealed that 85% of respondents believe America is on the “wrong track.”

Moreover, in the same poll only 28% approved of Biden’s handling of the economy. Historically, absent a war, the economy has proven to be the number one issue for voters on Election Day. Despite all the distractions about January 6 and Roe v Wade I see no reason for it not be so in 2022. Voters will be reminded of the economy every time they buy food or gas up the car. I believe those issues are “spin-proof.”

Incidentally, I have long objected to the far left labeling itself as “progressive.” The term implies a slow, steady, positive change. The current situation has been anything but that. To me, a more apt label would be “radical,” or socialist” But, that’s just my opinion.

Unless things change radically by ED, and I doubt they will, the above does not augur well for the Dems. In my opinion the GOP will “flip” both the Senate and the House.

Stay tuned. More to come.