As always, the contents of this blog are a compendium of multiple media reports supplemented by my personal opinion, where indicated.
Well, that didn’t take long. The US/Israel-Iran cease fire agreement was over before it began. Many of us knew from the beginning that it never had a chance. Iran is claiming Israel broke it by continuing to attack Lebanon. The US and Israel claim the war in Lebanon was never part of the cease fire agreement. Iran is claiming that the US is not complying with its 10-Point Terms (which were ludicrous on their face). The US is claiming that Iran has not complied with any of its demands most immediately by failing to open the Hormuz Strait to all ships free of charge.
The peace negotiations between representatives of the US and Iran have commenced. In my view they will be a waste of time. Regardless, they will not result in a permanent peace. Based on its negotiating history Iran has no intention of complying with any of our terms. Its negotiators have been saying one thing privately to our negotiators and the opposite publicly. Its military is not fully standing down. We are not even 100% certain who is in charge of the country. Is it the politicians? Is it the military? Is it the religious fanatics? Are we even negotiating with the right persons?
As always, its objective will be to stall, obfuscate, and lie to draw out the negotiations indefinitely. This strategy, aka “The Iranian Rope-A-Dope,” has worked time and again with prior Administrations, and the Iranians hope it will again. More on this later.
Iran cannot beat us militarily. It has already lost decisively. However, having lost the war, its plan is to win in the arena of public opinion as it has done before. It is counting on the US and the world tiring of the war and become willing to make a deal that will enable it to live to fight another day. In that event, it plans to rebuild its war machine, re-enrich its uranium, and continue to terrorize the world, and abuse its own people.
Consider;
- There are many factions both in the US and around the world that have criticized the necessity and legality of the war and President Trump’s strategic decisions from the beginning. Lately they have grown more vociferous. Incredibly, some of them have been openly rooting for Iran to win.
- These naysayers include most of the Dems in Congress and their supporters in the media in the US as well as many of our “allies.” These “allies” are the same cowards who would not provide troops nor even allow us to refuel our airplanes in their countries.
- The rapidly approaching midterm elections will put additional pressure on Trump to make a deal lest the GOP risk losing its majorities in Congress.
Many observers, including me, were not happy with the cease fire. In our view we were so close to achieving all of our goals and finishing Iran off for good that we should have pressed on and finished the job. For example, Fox military analyst General Jack Keane denoted that we were “perhaps ten days to two weeks away from wiping out Iran’s remaining ballistic missile launchers, underground storage sites, military production facilities, and nondefense industries.” Basically, we let Iran off the hook. It still retains sufficient power and influence in the ME to cause problems. At this point it is likely that we will have to fight another war with it and continue to deal with the terrorist activities of it and its proxies.
As I write this, Iran has retained control of the Strait of Hormuz. In contravention of the laws of the sea, it is not allowing free unfettered passage to any and all ships. It has been selecting which ships will be allowed to pass through, and it is threatening to assess tariffs. This has been and will continue to wreak havoc with gas prices and therefore the economies of all countries. President Trump has to resolve this asap or else despite all of his accomplishments the GOP will likely be slaughtered at the polls in November.
In my opinion, at this point the key to a satisfactory result is Kharg Island. It is merely a tiny island of little consequence, EXCEPT FOR ITS LOCATION, which is smack dab in the middle of the aforementioned Strait of Hormuz. Remember some 20% of the world’s oil passes through it, and it accounts for 90% of Iran’s oil exports. I am reminded of that old expression that the value of real estate is based on “location, location, location.” KI is supremely important, and in my view if Iran continues to hinder traffic thru the Strait the US should take control of it and the Strait either by blockade or invasion.
Conclusion
The current peace negotiations in Pakistan are a waste of time. I understand that Trump wants to give peace a chance. I understand that he would prefer a peaceful resolution to the horrors of more war. However, as I said above, I have seen this movie before. I didn’t like it the other times I saw it, and I like it less this time. I know how it ends. You know it; Trump knows it; everyone who does not have their head up their a*s knows it.
Regardless of whatever terms may be agreed upon in Pakistan, history tells us the Iranian leaders will never abide by them. Iran will never fully disarm voluntarily. It will continue to foment terrorism in the ME, the US and the rest of the world. It will continue its 47-year campaign to destroy any and all “nonbelievers.” It will continue to blackmail the rest of the world by disrupting the world’s oil supply, or just by threatening to do so. It will try to rebuild their enriched uranium stockpile. They will never deviate from their goal of nuclear capability. If left alone, eventually, whether next year or in ten years, they will succeed. Eventually, we will have to fight them again, perhaps, in a larger, more devastating war. As I said in an earlier blog history generally repeats itself. For example, we didn’t finish off Germany in WWI, which sowed the seeds for the rise of Hitler. Throughout the 1930’s the European powers continually appeased Hitler, which led to a larger and more devastating WWII.
My advice to Trump is ignore your critics. You will never be able to satisfy them anyway. You know it. I know it. We all know it. Do the right thing, not the politically expedient thing. Don’t fall for the Iranian “rope-a-dope” as your predecessors have. Let’s not forget that as winners we get to dictate the terms.
Metaphorically, we are stalled on the one-yard line. Punch it in. FINISH THE WAR!
We Built It Blog by Larry Jacob 