Tag: 2026-mid-term-elections

U. S.-IRAN MEMO OF UNDERSTANDING

As always, the contents of this blog constitute a compendium of various media communications supplemented by my personal opinion, where indicated.

The recently distributed 14-point Memo of Understanding between the US and Iran has drawn significant controversy. Everyone has an opinion. Comments and opinions have ranged from extremely positive (Trump, Vance and Rubio) to extremely negative, if not derisive (among most Dems, much of the media and even some Repubs). All this, and the ink is barely dry on the document.

In my opinion, people have to take a deep breath and recognize the MOU for what it is and what it is not. It is not a peace agreement. Essentially, what it is is a 60-day cease fire agreement, nothing more, nothing less, and it should be evaluated as such. Moreover, don’t be surprised if the 60-day limit gets extended, perhaps multiple times.

I believe it would be of little value to delve into the weeds of the MOU at this time. Suffice to say, the wording is vague and needs to be refined. Also, some key issues have been omitted, such as (1) Iran’s sponsoring of so-called “proxies” and (2) Israel’s separate war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, or require clarification, such as (1) the treatment of the $300 billion of “frozen” Iranian funds, (2) the details of the collection, disposal, and/or destruction of Iran’s nuclear dust, and (3) the verification process of various matters.

I wouldn’t characterize the MOU as “not worth the paper it is printed on” as some have. Rather, it should be evaluated as a first step in the peace negotiation process. I will denote, however, that it is a bad deal for Israel. It doesn’t address its major concerns with respect to Iran or its proxies. Some supporters, including me, would even characterize it as a betrayal of our staunchest ally in the ME.

I expect all parties to interpret elements of it differently. There is enough in it for both sides to interpret it as a “victory.” Hopefully, these issues will be ironed out sufficiently. Remember, as I opined in a previous blog the “devil is in the details.”

In the short-term I think the most significant matter is the opening of the Hormuz Strait. It will get the oil flowing, which will produce positive tangible results of lower energy prices for both businesses and consumers and ultimately improve the economy. As I have discussed in previous blogs the mid-term elections are approaching, and history tells us that the number one issue for voters is always the economy. Indeed, recent surveys have identified the number one issue for voters as affordability and the cost of living e.g. putting food on the table, paying the mortgage or rent, and healthcare. The Iran War and other key matters are simply not as important to most voters at the present time. Many of them have limited knowledge of the issues and are blissfully unaware of Iran’s nuclear threat.

Conclusion

I have significant misgivings concerning the current iteration of the peace process. I feel like we are missing our one chance to deal decisively with Iran once and for all. I fear that the vague wording of the MOU will yield a long, drawn-out peace treaty negotiation process. This will enable Iran to do what it has always done – lie, cheat, obfuscate, and delay, delay, and delay some more until US public opinion forces us to accept an agreement that does not meet all of our objectives.

As a means of defending the MOU President Trump has reiterated that if Iran fails to “live up” to its end of the MOU he can and will resume military action. Sounds great, but I foresee problems with that. At what point would an Iranian transgression be serious enough to warrant military action? For example, suppose Iran were to resume impeding the flow of oil through the Hormuz Strait or support a terrorist attack by one of its cells in the US or by Hezbollah against Israel. Would any of those actions be deemed sufficient to trigger additional military action? Resuming military action would be a drastic step and would be very unpopular with our allies and even worse, with the voters especially this close to the midterms. Furthermore, I believe Iran will test the US’s resolve by committing a series of “minor” violations.

Finally, and most significantly, although Iran fears and respects Trump he will not be president forever. Iran can take the long view. Eventually, the US will elect a president with less fortitude and with a more flexible attitude toward Iran and the ME in general. Then, I fear, Iran will be able to take advantage.

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NO KINGS

As always, the contents of this blog are a compendium of various media reports supplemented by my personal opinion where indicated.

I was nonplussed by the most recent “No Kings” demonstrations. This was the third iteration, and the organizers are predicting (threatening) additional rallies prospectively. According to the Guardian, on March 28 over eight million people attended some 3,300 “No Kings” rallies in the U.S. and around the world, making it likely the largest single-day protest in U.S. history. I am continually amazed, appalled and even frightened by the dearth of some Americans’ knowledge of even the basics of current events, history and just general awareness of world events, and how easily they are continually manipulated by the radical left and the mainstream media, whose primary goals are to denigrate America and its system of government and divide the country. The organizers are radically left, highly organized, and well-funded. Many, if not most, of them are located offshore in communist/socialist countries.

With respect to the “No Kings” movement even the name is an absurd moniker that has no basis in reality. Trump is not a king, has not been acting as a king, and has no desire to be a king. He is not aiming to be president for life. After the 2028 presidential election he will leave the presidency just like all previous presidents have.

Most of the demonstrators don’t have the foggiest idea of the issues against which they are railing and don’t particularly care. All they know is that it is a protest against President Trump. What for, they don’t know or care. Some Dem politicians have even stated they are rooting against America just to hurt Trump. In my opinion, many of those who are protesting the war against Iran couldn’t even find it on the map much less have an understanding of the underlying and immediate issues.

Based on what I have bene able to glean from various news reports the major reasons for the protests are as follows:

  1. The Iran War
  2. High gas prices
  3. Inflation
  4. ICE overreach

I maintain that they are ignorant of the context of these issues. I have discussed each of these in recent blogs, but I will endeavor to provide a brief review at this time.

  1. The War – The overriding purpose of this war is to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear capability. No sane person wants that. We know Iran was merely weeks from achieving that goal. How? During the ongoing peace negotiations, they bragged as much to our representatives. We are highly confident that once they developed nuclear weapons, they would have no hesitation to use them. Their most likely targets would be Israel and the US, but they would have constituted a truly existential threat to the entire world. So, we are engaged in a limited war in the present to avoid a larger war in the future. If you think I am exaggerating the danger, review the history of the 1930s and the ill-conceived, ill-advised, and unsuccessful appeasement of Hitler. The people that are complaining that the war is “unnecessary,” “it’s not our fight,” and “we weren’t attacked” are woefully ignorant of the historical facts. In reality nothing could be further from the truth. The fact is we have been at war with Iran since 1979 when the radical lunatic mullahs took control of the country. Iran has established an unknown number of terrorist cells in the US.  Through its various proxies it has coordinated a plethora of attacks against both Israel and the US. It has planned and attempted the assassinations of various US officials including President Trump. So, this limited war is definitely necessary to prevent a significantly larger war later. Remember that old expression, “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” Rather than being vilified for his actions Trump should be applauded for having the courage to do what he is doing.
  2. High gas prices– It is true that the price of oil has skyrocketed since the advent of the aforementioned war, and that is a financial burden on virtually all Americans. However, this is a necessary short-term situation that will be resolved as soon as the war is over, which should be in a matter of weeks.  As I write this, according to Trading Economics and Bloomberg.com West Texas Crude oil is selling at approximately $104 per barrel, which is way too high, but, for perspective, in March 2022 during the Biden Administration the price was even higher, $130 per barrel. Furthermore, today’s price is due directly to Iran’s closing the Hormuz Strait whereas the price in 2022 was self-inflicted due to the Biden Administration’s ill-advised prolific spending.
  3. Inflation – The current inflation of 3% is too high, but to be fair, Trump did not cause the problem. He inherited it. He was in the process of addressing that issue before the war threw everything out of kilter. The price of energy affects the entire economy. After the war when the price of oil is under control the rate of inflation should decline to more acceptable levels.
  4. ICE Overreach – Briefly, the “left” has been complaining that ICE has been too aggressive in hunting down and deporting illegals. While there have been a few isolated incidents of violence these have occurred in sanctuary locales where the local law enforcement has exacerbated the situation by hindering, rather than helping the process. The larger point is that the illegals broke federal law just by entering the country. In addition, many of them were the dregs of society in their home countries and have continued to commit violent crimes in the US against US citizens. The perception is that the Dems favor the rights of illegals over those of American citizens.

Conclusion

Due to the foregoing, Trump’s current approval rating this month is the lowest it has been since his reelection. The fallout from the current problems is threatening to undue all of his prior accomplishments. With the midterm elections looming both he and the country need a quick and decisive end to the war. If the Dems were to take control of even one of the two houses of Congress nothing of substance will be accomplished going forward. His programs will be thwarted, and he may even be impeached again.

We are literally fighting this war for the sake of our children and grandchildren. Do we want to leave them a planet that is perpetually under the risk of nuclear war or one that is safe? That was a rhetorical question. I know the answer. Do you?

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