Tag: 2026-mid-term-elections

GOVERNOR HOCHUL AND A HAM SANDWICH

As always, the contents of this blog constitute a compendium of multiple media reports supplemented by my personal opinion where indicated.

Dem Governor Kathy Hochul has been leading Repub Bruce Blakeman in the election polls all year, at times by a comfortable margin. However, two recent polls have disclosed that the spread has narrowed to the point that Blakemen has a realistic chance of an upset. The latest Marist poll reported that Hochul has an eleven point lead, and the latest Pollfinity poll reported that she has a mere three point lead. In addition, most news outlets and commentators have opined that Blakeman “won” their recent debate decisively. More on that later.

Hochul’s ascendancy to governor was based on a fortuitous set of circumstances that bore little relationship to her record as a politician. In 2014 NYS Governor Andrew Cuomo was seeking a running mate to “balance” the ticket. Hochul seemed to be the best choice. She was a former Congresswoman from a conservative-leaning district and had been an Erie County Clerk. He had run poorly in that area in 2010, and he was not as popular among women. The expectation was that she would appeal to centrist, conservative, and rural voters upstate where Cuomo was weak. She provided both geographic and gender balance, and she was also a moderate. Furthermore, Hochul was the party’s sole female statewide candidate that year. Thus, Hochul was plucked from obscurity into the bigtime.

More good fortune: In August 2012 Cuomo became embroiled in a sexual harasssment scandal. He was forced to resign and Hochul became the first female NYS governor without possessing the requisite experience and qualifications. In that type of situation some people are able to grow into the job and be succcessful, whereas others are not. You can decide into which category Hochul belongs.

In 2022 she was elected to a full term. Soon after, her handpicked lieutenant governor, former state Senator Brian Benjamin, was indicted on corruption charges and was forced to resign. Hochul was widely criticized because she had been cognizant of Benjamin’s legal problems, but she picked him regardless.

Hochul’s tenure as governor has been marred by a plethora of issues, controversies and bad decisions, for example;

  1. She has become known for “flip-flops.” She is not a person of strong convictions. She has changed her positions on topics such as Manhattan congestion pricing, tax policies and immigration, to name a few. Regarding congestion pricing, prior to the 2024 elections she delayed its implementation. Then, afterwards her opinion “evolved,” and she promulgated it. It has been very unpopular especially among the working class and small business owners. In addition, it does not appear to have relieved Manhattan’s congestion problem in the least.
  2. Prior to her selection as Lt. Governor she was a hardliner on immigration, particularly with respect to illegals obtaining drivers’ licenses. For instance, she opposed a state proposal to grant driver’s licenses to undocumented immigrants, even threatening to have them arrested if they applied at her offices. Then, in 2018, while serving as Lieutenant Governor, she reversed her stance, supporting the initiative to meet the labor demands of upstate farmers. As governor she has turned NY into a sanctuary state. Critics from both the progressive left and conservative right have opined that her policy trajectory on immigration has been unpredictable, with opponents like Bruce Blakeman and Representative Mike Lawler denoting she has shifted positions depending on which political faction she needs to appease at the time. In my view, this flip-flopping is typical of many of her policies. She may characterize this trait as “evolving,” but I view it as gaslighting.
  3. For years she was known as a moderate Dem, which was one of the main reasons Cuomo picked her as a running mate in the first place. Since Comrade Zoh was elected mayor of NYC, however, rather than restraining his wild policies she has entered into a mutually-beneficial political alliance with him. For example, she provided him with billions of dollars in state aid to help New York City close its considerable budget gap; and they joined forces on expanding free child care initiatives across the city by committing substantial state funding to the program.
  4. Mamdani has endorsed Hochul’s re-election bid, and Hochul relies on him and his progressive, youthful base for support. As the expression goes, “politics makes strange bedfellows.”
  5. Hochul has become toxic. A recent poll released by Sienna University/Times Union and NBC, among others, reported that 60% of respondents had an unfavorable view of her. Furthermore, according to the NY Post at least two Dems running for Congress have disavowed that they support her. In an open forum Cait Conley, Dem candidate in the Hudson Valley’s 17th Congressional District, actually agreed with her Repub opponent, Mike Lawler, that Hochul was responsible for NYS’s toxic business climate, including the “highest taxes in the nation,” congestion pricing and excessive red tape, concluding “Hochul has to go.” During a radio station interview North Country Dem nominee Blake Gendbien, who has been closely tied to Hochul, tried to downplay their mutual support by repeatedly dodging the host’s inquiries.
  6. The governor is supposed to control, or at least influence, the mayor. After all, the governor has the power of the purse. Hochul’s and Zoh’s relationship appears to be at least an equal partnership with Zoh actually dominating at times. Hochul’s motivation is clear. She wants the far left’s support in the current election. Who knows what promises she has made to those lunatics to be promulgated after the election.
  7. Historically, Hochul was against raising taxes. Yet recently she advocated assessing a tax on secondary homes in New York City. She wanted to implement an annual surcharge on non-primary NYC residences that are worth $5 million and higher, with the proceeds going toward paying down Mamdani’s $5.4 billion city budget gap. The Supreme Court struck this down on technicalities, but it could easily be resurrected, again after the election of course.
  8. The foregoing are problematic, but they pale before the next one. It’s no secret that NYS is in deep trouble financially. Years of Dem control, which has resulted in excessive spending, high taxes, waste and corruption have led businesses and people with the wherewithall to flee the state and resettle in states with lower taxes, a lower cost of living and a friendlier attitude towards business to do so. The obvious results have been a decline in the tax base and employment opportunities. In this day and age many businesses and individuals can easily operate remotely, and many of them have taken advantage of that. According to multiple media reports some 5,000 businesses have left NY in the last few years, and thousands more have scaled back their operations in the state. Moreover, in 2024 the state had a net decline of nearly 14,000 taxpayers, a disproportunate share of which were high income and wealthy taxpayers. This led to a classic Hochul flip-flop. Initially, in pushing her “tax the rich” program she basically told businesses and rich persons that if they don’t like it they should leave. As noted above many have. Later, recognizing the shrinking tax base she tried to lure them back. Said one commentator, “after taxing the hell out of us and even telling us to leave, Kathy Hochul is now begging people to return.” In short, I maintain that, as governor, one of Hochul’s primary responsibilites is to make NY more attractive to taxpayers, and she has failed miserably at that.

A few days ago Hochul and her Repub opponent, Bruce Blakeman met in their only scheduled debate. Most observers opined that Blakeman “won” decisively. The topics on which he “scored” were (1) the high price of energy, which, due to taxes embedded in the price, are 70% higher than the national average, (2) NYS’s sanctuary state practices, which severely compromise the safety and security of everyone, and (3) her close relationship with Comrade Zoh, an admitted anti-semite. Hochul’s weak rebuttal was to blame President Trump for everything. Voters have been hearing that from Dems for ten years, and they’re tired of it.

“Winning” the debate is fine, but historically, with few exceptions (Kennedy vs Nixon in 1960 and Trump vs Biden in 2024 being the most famous ones) the debate results have not been reflected in the polls. In this case, we will have to wait and see.

CONCLUSION

In my opinion, Hochul’s slim, shakey lead in the polls is an indictment of her poor record as governor as described above. The race should not be nearly this close. NYS is a deep blue state in which the Dem candidate virtually always wins a statewide election, often by a comfortable margin. Dem registered voters outnumber Repubs by more than 2:1 (48% vs 23%). NYS has not elected a Repub governor since George Pataki who served from 1995-2006. It should be noted that since then NY has become even more radically “blue.”

This situation reminds me of a famous expression that a District Attorney requesting a Grand Jury to issue an indictment against a person accused of a crime is almost always successful to the point that it’s been said that the DA could even get the GJ to issue an indictment against a “ham sandwich.” In my opinion, in NYS a majority of people would automatically vote for any Dem candidate regardless of his or her qualifications and experience, even the proverbial “ham sandwich.” (Some of you may recall that in a recent election cycle the voters in deep blue Alleghany County, PA actually elected a dead person to Congress.)


In this analogy, any candidate nominated by the Dems, regardless of his or her experience and qualifications, should defeat the Repub opponent. In this case Hochul represents the “ham sandwich.”


















































































































by Tags: , , , Leave a comment

MID-TERM ELECTIONS TILTING BLUE

As always, the contents of this blog constitute a compendium of multiple media reports supplented by my personal opinion where indicated.

In a previous blog I explained why, in my opinion, this mid-term election was the most critical one in my lifetine, if not ever. The Repubs are clinging onto very slim majorities in both the House and the Senate, and cannot afford to lose any ground. If they do, (1) President Trump’s program will be thwarted; (2) a contentious Congress will be unable to agree on any meaningful legialation; (3) the public will once again be subjected to endless, meaningless and wasteful negotiations; (4) President Trump will likely be impeached again; and (5) the neo-communists will have established a toehold in the federal government.

In my opinion, based on President Trump’s many accomplishments and the fact that the Dem Party has moved far to the left with many of the candidates even embracing communist policies and beliefs the Repubs should be cleaningup. However, the Repubs have some problems, which are hurting them and may prove to be fatal.

  1. President Trump’s popularity appears to be waning. Various current polls place his national job approval rating at a paltry 35% to 38%. Moreover, his approval among registered Republicans has declined to about 78%, which is the lowest in his second term. His personal popularity or lack thereof, has always had a strong influence on the down-ballot races.
  2. President Trump has accomplished a great deal so far, perhaps as much as any previous president. Limitations of time and space preclude me from listing them all here. But, a few of the more significant ones would include (1) extending the “Trump Tax Cuts,” (2) depriving Iran of a nuclear weapon, and (3) securing the border to prevent illegal immigration and reduce the inflow of deadly drugs.
  3. Unfortunately for him most of the voting public is not focusing on those accomplishments at the current time. As always, they are most concerned about the economy, inflation and the cost of basic items such as food, gas, healthcare and rent/mortgage payments. That is where the Repubs are being hurt. Inflation has proven to be most stubborn. The latest rate is 3.4%, which prompted the Fed to raise interest rates for the first time in three years. This will affect consumers negatively in many basic areas such as mortgage rates, credit card debt and car loans. The price of a barrel of oil is over $100. The price of gas at the pump has risen to over $4.00 in many areas. The public is reminded of this every day. This is what it is focusing on.
  4. In the long run depriving Iran of a nuclear weapon will likely become recognized as President Trump’s greatest achievement. Unfortunately, at the moment that is an intangible benefit. It will not help the Repubs in this election. Many people are actually growing tired of the war. As I said, their attention has shifted elsewhere. Iran’s “rope a dope” strategy is beginning to work.
  5. Same with the tax cuts. They will spur the economy, but not until 2027 or 2028, again too late to help with this election.

Conclusion

We still have nearly six weeks to go before the election, but with the advent of early voting it is getting late. As usual, Americans seem to be overly concerned with short-term issues while ignoring the long term. Consequently, we appear to be on the cusp of electing a plethora of neo-communists to the Congress as well as various state and local offices. As I have said in previous blogs these far-left loons/communists hate America. They want to tear it down and remake the country into a communist state. Check out their past comments and postings. They are disguising their true beliefs in order to get elected. For example, suddenly El-Sayed is attempting to distance himself from notorious Jew and Israel hater Hasan Piker. Then, they will revert to their true beliefs.

The Dems have yet to offer any meaningful solutions to the issues they have been ranting about. All they have offered is hatred for President Trump. Evidentally, voters have forgotten how much worse the situation was under Biden.

Turnout will be the key to winning. Repubs must organize and get out the vote!

I hope I’m wrong, but future historians may very well view 2026 as the beginning of the end of America as we have known it.

by Tags: , , Leave a comment

U. S.-IRAN MEMO OF UNDERSTANDING

As always, the contents of this blog constitute a compendium of various media communications supplemented by my personal opinion, where indicated.

The recently distributed 14-point Memo of Understanding between the US and Iran has drawn significant controversy. Everyone has an opinion. Comments and opinions have ranged from extremely positive (Trump, Vance and Rubio) to extremely negative, if not derisive (among most Dems, much of the media and even some Repubs). All this, and the ink is barely dry on the document.

In my opinion, people have to take a deep breath and recognize the MOU for what it is and what it is not. It is not a peace agreement. Essentially, what it is is a 60-day cease fire agreement, nothing more, nothing less, and it should be evaluated as such. Moreover, don’t be surprised if the 60-day limit gets extended, perhaps multiple times.

I believe it would be of little value to delve into the weeds of the MOU at this time. Suffice to say, the wording is vague and needs to be refined. Also, some key issues have been omitted, such as (1) Iran’s sponsoring of so-called “proxies” and (2) Israel’s separate war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, or require clarification, such as (1) the treatment of the $300 billion of “frozen” Iranian funds, (2) the details of the collection, disposal, and/or destruction of Iran’s nuclear dust, and (3) the verification process of various matters.

I wouldn’t characterize the MOU as “not worth the paper it is printed on” as some have. Rather, it should be evaluated as a first step in the peace negotiation process. I will denote, however, that it is a bad deal for Israel. It doesn’t address its major concerns with respect to Iran or its proxies. Some supporters, including me, would even characterize it as a betrayal of our staunchest ally in the ME.

I expect all parties to interpret elements of it differently. There is enough in it for both sides to interpret it as a “victory.” Hopefully, these issues will be ironed out sufficiently. Remember, as I opined in a previous blog the “devil is in the details.”

In the short-term I think the most significant matter is the opening of the Hormuz Strait. It will get the oil flowing, which will produce positive tangible results of lower energy prices for both businesses and consumers and ultimately improve the economy. As I have discussed in previous blogs the mid-term elections are approaching, and history tells us that the number one issue for voters is always the economy. Indeed, recent surveys have identified the number one issue for voters as affordability and the cost of living e.g. putting food on the table, paying the mortgage or rent, and healthcare. The Iran War and other key matters are simply not as important to most voters at the present time. Many of them have limited knowledge of the issues and are blissfully unaware of Iran’s nuclear threat.

Conclusion

I have significant misgivings concerning the current iteration of the peace process. I feel like we are missing our one chance to deal decisively with Iran once and for all. I fear that the vague wording of the MOU will yield a long, drawn-out peace treaty negotiation process. This will enable Iran to do what it has always done – lie, cheat, obfuscate, and delay, delay, and delay some more until US public opinion forces us to accept an agreement that does not meet all of our objectives.

As a means of defending the MOU President Trump has reiterated that if Iran fails to “live up” to its end of the MOU he can and will resume military action. Sounds great, but I foresee problems with that. At what point would an Iranian transgression be serious enough to warrant military action? For example, suppose Iran were to resume impeding the flow of oil through the Hormuz Strait or support a terrorist attack by one of its cells in the US or by Hezbollah against Israel. Would any of those actions be deemed sufficient to trigger additional military action? Resuming military action would be a drastic step and would be very unpopular with our allies and even worse, with the voters especially this close to the midterms. Furthermore, I believe Iran will test the US’s resolve by committing a series of “minor” violations.

Finally, and most significantly, although Iran fears and respects Trump he will not be president forever. Iran can take the long view. Eventually, the US will elect a president with less fortitude and with a more flexible attitude toward Iran and the ME in general. Then, I fear, Iran will be able to take advantage.

by Tags: , , , , Leave a comment

NO KINGS

As always, the contents of this blog are a compendium of various media reports supplemented by my personal opinion where indicated.

I was nonplussed by the most recent “No Kings” demonstrations. This was the third iteration, and the organizers are predicting (threatening) additional rallies prospectively. According to the Guardian, on March 28 over eight million people attended some 3,300 “No Kings” rallies in the U.S. and around the world, making it likely the largest single-day protest in U.S. history. I am continually amazed, appalled and even frightened by the dearth of some Americans’ knowledge of even the basics of current events, history and just general awareness of world events, and how easily they are continually manipulated by the radical left and the mainstream media, whose primary goals are to denigrate America and its system of government and divide the country. The organizers are radically left, highly organized, and well-funded. Many, if not most, of them are located offshore in communist/socialist countries.

With respect to the “No Kings” movement even the name is an absurd moniker that has no basis in reality. Trump is not a king, has not been acting as a king, and has no desire to be a king. He is not aiming to be president for life. After the 2028 presidential election he will leave the presidency just like all previous presidents have.

Most of the demonstrators don’t have the foggiest idea of the issues against which they are railing and don’t particularly care. All they know is that it is a protest against President Trump. What for, they don’t know or care. Some Dem politicians have even stated they are rooting against America just to hurt Trump. In my opinion, many of those who are protesting the war against Iran couldn’t even find it on the map much less have an understanding of the underlying and immediate issues.

Based on what I have bene able to glean from various news reports the major reasons for the protests are as follows:

  1. The Iran War
  2. High gas prices
  3. Inflation
  4. ICE overreach

I maintain that they are ignorant of the context of these issues. I have discussed each of these in recent blogs, but I will endeavor to provide a brief review at this time.

  1. The War – The overriding purpose of this war is to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear capability. No sane person wants that. We know Iran was merely weeks from achieving that goal. How? During the ongoing peace negotiations, they bragged as much to our representatives. We are highly confident that once they developed nuclear weapons, they would have no hesitation to use them. Their most likely targets would be Israel and the US, but they would have constituted a truly existential threat to the entire world. So, we are engaged in a limited war in the present to avoid a larger war in the future. If you think I am exaggerating the danger, review the history of the 1930s and the ill-conceived, ill-advised, and unsuccessful appeasement of Hitler. The people that are complaining that the war is “unnecessary,” “it’s not our fight,” and “we weren’t attacked” are woefully ignorant of the historical facts. In reality nothing could be further from the truth. The fact is we have been at war with Iran since 1979 when the radical lunatic mullahs took control of the country. Iran has established an unknown number of terrorist cells in the US.  Through its various proxies it has coordinated a plethora of attacks against both Israel and the US. It has planned and attempted the assassinations of various US officials including President Trump. So, this limited war is definitely necessary to prevent a significantly larger war later. Remember that old expression, “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” Rather than being vilified for his actions Trump should be applauded for having the courage to do what he is doing.
  2. High gas prices– It is true that the price of oil has skyrocketed since the advent of the aforementioned war, and that is a financial burden on virtually all Americans. However, this is a necessary short-term situation that will be resolved as soon as the war is over, which should be in a matter of weeks.  As I write this, according to Trading Economics and Bloomberg.com West Texas Crude oil is selling at approximately $104 per barrel, which is way too high, but, for perspective, in March 2022 during the Biden Administration the price was even higher, $130 per barrel. Furthermore, today’s price is due directly to Iran’s closing the Hormuz Strait whereas the price in 2022 was self-inflicted due to the Biden Administration’s ill-advised prolific spending.
  3. Inflation – The current inflation of 3% is too high, but to be fair, Trump did not cause the problem. He inherited it. He was in the process of addressing that issue before the war threw everything out of kilter. The price of energy affects the entire economy. After the war when the price of oil is under control the rate of inflation should decline to more acceptable levels.
  4. ICE Overreach – Briefly, the “left” has been complaining that ICE has been too aggressive in hunting down and deporting illegals. While there have been a few isolated incidents of violence these have occurred in sanctuary locales where the local law enforcement has exacerbated the situation by hindering, rather than helping the process. The larger point is that the illegals broke federal law just by entering the country. In addition, many of them were the dregs of society in their home countries and have continued to commit violent crimes in the US against US citizens. The perception is that the Dems favor the rights of illegals over those of American citizens.

Conclusion

Due to the foregoing, Trump’s current approval rating this month is the lowest it has been since his reelection. The fallout from the current problems is threatening to undue all of his prior accomplishments. With the midterm elections looming both he and the country need a quick and decisive end to the war. If the Dems were to take control of even one of the two houses of Congress nothing of substance will be accomplished going forward. His programs will be thwarted, and he may even be impeached again.

We are literally fighting this war for the sake of our children and grandchildren. Do we want to leave them a planet that is perpetually under the risk of nuclear war or one that is safe? That was a rhetorical question. I know the answer. Do you?

by Tags: , , , , Leave a comment