As always, the contents of this blog constitute a compendium of multiple media reports supplemented by my personal opinion where indicated.
With little more than five weeks until Election Day according to various polls GOP prospects for retaining control of Congress appear bleak. As I have described in various recent blogs, incredibly, despite the fact that the Dems are running a conglomeration of far-left, neo-communist candidates who should have little appeal to mainstream voters, current polling indicates that they are tied or ahead in most of the key congressional races. How can this be? Glad you asked. Below please find my analysis of the reasons as well as my suggestions for turning the tide.
- According to multiple recent polls President Trump’s job approval has declined to record lows, between 35-39%. This is significant, because in the last ten years his popularity has provided a considerable boost to GOP candidates. Almost every candidate that he has endorsed has gone on to win the GOP primary and then the election.
- This decline has even been evident among his base. According to a recent poll conducted by the Marquette Law School his approval rating among “very conservative voters” declined from 84% in July to 76% in September. In addition, a recent poll in North Carolina exhibited signs of disaffection between some Republicans and President Trump as some races in which the GOP once had comfortable leads that have become competitive or toss-ups.
- Putting aside the inane Trump haters the primary reasons are the economy and the Iran War. Only approximately 30% of the public approves of his handling of the economy, whereas approximately 63% have opined that his policies have made it worse. For example, they complain that the tariffis, the rate of inflation and the cost of food, energy, and other necessities are too high.
- This result is understandable since consumers are exposed to these items every day.
- On the other hand, in my view the criticism of his prosecution of the Iran War is unfounded, simplistic and short-sighted. Yes, it has dragged on longer than many of us had thought/hoped; yes, the end is not in sight; and yes it is the main reason for the high price of oil, which has impacted the entire US economy. However, let’s not forget that the main reason for the war was to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. The evidence was overwhelming that it was very close to achieving that, perhaps only weeks away. Iran’s own peace negotiators even admitted it, bragged about it. I and many others maintain that a nuclear-capable Iran would have been disastrous for the safety and security of not just the ME but the entire world, because its crazy leaders would have no hesitation to use it. We destroyed most of their nuclear stockpile and buried the rest under so many tons of debris that cannot be excavated. In my view that accomplishment “trumps” any and all of the negatives. Unfortunately for Trump unlike the oil prices, that success is intangible. One cannnot see it, touch it, or feel it. Thus, it has faded from the public’s memory. It will not help the GOP in this election, but future historians will undoubtedly recognize it as an existential triumph for world peace and security.
- As I have reported in recent blogs voters are either unaware of the DSA candidates’ extreme principle policies, beliefs and past statements or are choosing to ignore them. The more extreme candidates like El-Sayed, James Talarico and Sherrod Brown, among others, have repeatedly expressed their antisemitism, anti-Israel opinions, and anti-Americanism, although in order to win a general election recently they been moderating their tone. Don’t be fooled. Use your common sense. Their lifelong attitudes and prejudices did not really just change abruptly. You can be sure that if they were to gain control they would quickly revert back to their true selves. They will seek to shred the Constitution (e.g. eliminate the presidency, the Senate, the Supreme Court, ICE and the Pentagon, reopen out borders, pass universal cradle-to-grave healthcare for all, and release all prisoners, among others) and remake the country as a communist state. I am not making this up. They have posted these intentions repeatedly (although they may have been deleted or altered most of them by now).
Ironically, recently there has been some positive news with respect to the economy. Unfortunately, these positive developments will likely not manifest themselves until 2027 or 2028. As frequently happens the next administration will probably get the credit even though the seeds for recovery have been sown by the previous one. For example:
- Illegal border crossings, which were rampant under the previous administration, have shrunken dramatically. The Department of Homeland Security has reported 16 consecutive months of zero releases (“catch and release”) of individuals that had crossed illegally, been detained, and subsequently deported through September 2026. As I have discussed in previous blogs this has had and will continue to have significant and far-reaching positive impact on the US, politically, economically, and socially.
- According to the Council on Criminal Justice and the FBI violent crimes in crimes in major U.S. cities, including murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault, are all at or near alltime lows..They declined by approximately 10% during the first half of 2026, the latest figures available. This is not a “one-year wonder.” It represents a continuation of the trend in recent years..
- According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention the average life expectancy at birth in the United States is 79, 81.4 for females aad 76.5 for males. These are all record highs.
- The economy is growing. The Atlanta Fed has forecast 5% growth for the current quarter. Unfortunately for the Repubs the actual numbers will not be released until after the election.
- According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the unemployment rate for August 2026 was holding steady at 4.1%. At the peak of the pandemic it was 81%.
- According to the Consumer Price Index, which monitors changes in the cost of everyday items such as groceries, shelter, clothing, health care and transportation, the rate of inflation over the past year was 2.7%. This rate is not bad by historical standards, and it is line with the Fed’s target rate. Nevertheless, the public’s perception is that it onerous, and in this case perception has become reality. The public is blaming President Trump, which is unfair. Let’s not forget the spendthrift policies of the previous administtration, which pandered to voters and ignited inflation. In my experience inflation, once ignited takes years to bring under control.
- The financial markets are booming. As I write this, the Dow is at 51,683; the S&P 500 is at 7,651; and the Nasdaq Composite is at 21,523. Some 44% of US households, or 58 million persons, own at least one IRA. Some own 401k and/or 403b accounts as well. Remember, the financial markets are leading indicators, which augurs well for the future. Persons in all socio-economic categories, not just the wealthy, own these accounts. They are all sharing in this newfound wealth, which is being generated by President Trump’s record-breaking tax cuts and other elements of his economic plan. Furthermore, leading financier, Jamie Dimond, is forecasting a small business boom, a manufacturing boom, and an employment boom. So, I understand the frustration of consumers with prices, but criticisms of Trump’s handling of the economy are superficial, shortsided, unfair, and just plain wrong.
- Speaking of inflation the Dems have been advocating a new ” Green New Deal.” As usual, it sounds teriffic, money, money money for everyone but would not work. Moreover, be advised that recent studies estimate the cost to be $212 trillion over the next ten years. That’s trillion with a “T,” and that’s probably understated. Quite simply, if enacted the GND would bankrupt the country. There would be no way to pay for it without printing excessive amounts of money, as if the current deficit is not high enough.
CONCLUSION
In order to turn the tide Repubs need to step up voters’ cognizance of the foregoing. At least, make sure they are aware of what they are voting for. They should focus on outlets where the Dem and independent voters get their news, such as streaming services, Tik Tok, and the like.
Early voting and mail-in voting have already commenced in some states. Many observers expect it to be substantial and perhaps decisive. Historically, Dems have been more prone to vote early than Repubs. This has often put Repubs in “catch-up” mode on ED. Not good. Repubs need to improve their oranization and match the Dems’ early voting totals. On ED they need to be organized and get their supporters to the polls. As always, voter turnout will be crucial.
Repubs, take heed. In the immortal words of the late Yogi Berra, “it gets late early.”
We Built It Blog by Larry Jacob 