As always, the contents of this blog constitute a compendium of multiple media reports supplemented by my personal opinion where indicated.
Let’s begin with a quiz. Unlike my other quizzes this one will be easy. Most of you should know the answer.
With respect to politics most of the American electorate is (a) ignorant; (b) oblivious; (c) misinformed; (d) shortsighted; (e) all of the above. Of course, the answer is “e.” Feel free to disagree, but read on for my reasoning.
Below please find my comments and analyses. Most of the topics discussed have been the subject of previous blogs.
- The numbers don’t lie. The Dems won the election decisively. They won majorities in both the House and the Senate. They gained 83 seats in the House to give them a 259-176 majority. They gained five seats in the Senate to give them a 54-44 majority. In addition, the Dems won most of the down-ballot contests at the state and local level.
- The Dems made inroads in every state. There were landslide victories in blue states. They even won races in some red states which the Repubs were supposed to win handily. Even the races the Repubs won, notably in FL, were much closer than projected.
- In off-year elections the president’s party almost always loses seats in Congress, but these losses exceeded the historical average, especially in the House. Since 1934 the president’s party has lost an average of 26 to 27 House seats per midterm election and an average of 3 to 4 Senate seats.
- In my view Dems should not interpret the results as overwhelming support for their socialist and communist agenda. Quite the contrary. According to a recent poll 54% of voters have an unfavorable view of socialism. Probably, with respect to communism it would be substantially higher. America remains a capitalist, free enterprise, freedom of choice society.
- The vote was more a repudiation of President Trump policies particularly his handling of the Iran war and the current rate of inflation. His approval ratings have been in the mid 40s all year.
- The fallacy of electing socialists to repudiate Trump is that Trump will be gone in two years, but the radical senators will remain for six years and the various state governors for four.
- Now comes the more difficult task of governing. The Dem Party is badly fractured between the traditional more moderate Dems and the far left crazy radicals. It will be interesting to see how they govern. First, they have to agree on the Speaker and Senate Majority Leader.
- Despite their clear majorities the Dems will not have carte blanche to do whatever they want. President Trump will be in office until March 2029. He will negotiate and cooperate, but only up to a point. He will not roll over. If the Dems want to accomplish anything they will have to temper their more radical policies. Can they do it? Will they do it?
- The Dems were good at criticizing policies, but they never offered any reasonable, rational alternative solutions. I don’t believe they have any. We’ll see.
- Many, if not most, of the radicals have little or no experience in governance. They have little or no knowledge of or experience in business, politics, economics, foreign affairs, or anything else needed to govern.
- I expect much internal squabbling among the various Dem factions. They only things they agree on are hatred of Trump, Israel and Jews.
- The radical wing will be intent on retribution. They’ve already said so. They will want to waste time on investigations and impeachments rather than dealing with the issues the people elected them to fix. I believe this would be a serious mistake and a waste of time. It will turn off voters and result in a backlash in 2028. Don’t be surprised if some voters develop buyer’s remorse.
- Trump has not committed any impeachable offenses, which won’t prevent his enemies from trying. However, even if they succeed in impeaching him in the House they will never get 2/3 of the Senate to vote to convict him.
- The people did not elect them to exact retribution. They elected them primarily to fix inflation and end the Iran War. The Dems are not equipped to accomplish either. Have we forgotten the 9% inflation rate under Biden? Have we forgotten the disastrous way we left Afghanistan? We left behind countless Afghan allies who had risked their lives to support us and equipment worth billions of dollars. And can we ever forget the image of dozens of desperate people clinging to the wings of the last airplane to leave as it taxied up the runway?
- If we just quit the war Iran will claim victory, regain control of the flow of oil thru the Hormuz Strait, resume its terrorist activities, and continue its surreptitous development of nuclear weapons. A nuclear capable Iran would constitute an existential threat to the rest of the world.
- In the wake of the Dem victory what will be the future for Israel and the Jews? The radical Dems have advocated curtailing aid to and support of Israel. They are also openly and blatantly anti-semitic. History tells us this will not augur well for Jews.
Conclusion
Many commentators have opined that the election results are not as disastrous as I have portrayed above. They cite previous off- year elections where the two parties were able to find common ground. Furthermore, they denote that usually the party that lost power was able to regain control in the next election cycle and retain/recapture the presidency.
True, but in my view this time is different. In the previous instances the victors were moderate and open to working with the other party. Compromises were made which is the way it should be. Presently, the radical Dems who have a strong influence, if not outright control of the Dem Party are not interested in compromise. They have stated on the record that they want to radically and permanently change America and the American way of life. I believe they mean what they say. In my opinion, such changes would occur gradually and largely unnoticeably, perhaps over a few election cycles.
Pay close attention to the turmoil and violence currently devastating Europe. That could easily be our future. In my opinion we have let the socialist genie out of the bottle. History tells us that once that happens there is no putting it back in. I would like to be wrong about this, but I don’t think I am.
