As always, the contents of this blog constitute a compendium of multiple media reports supplemented by my personal opinion where indicated.
Dem Governor Kathy Hochul has been leading Repub Bruce Blakeman in the election polls all year, at times by a comfortable margin. However, two recent polls have disclosed that the spread has narrowed to the point that Blakemen has a realistic chance of an upset. The latest Marist poll reported that Hochul has an eleven point lead, and the latest Pollfinity poll reported that she has a mere three point lead. In addition, most news outlets and commentators have opined that Blakeman “won” their recent debate decisively. More on that later.
Hochul’s ascendancy to governor was based on a fortuitous set of circumstances that bore little relationship to her record as a politician. In 2014 NYS Governor Andrew Cuomo was seeking a running mate to “balance” the ticket. Hochul seemed to be the best choice. She was a former Congresswoman from a conservative-leaning district and had been an Erie County Clerk. He had run poorly in that area in 2010, and he was not as popular among women. The expectation was that she would appeal to centrist, conservative, and rural voters upstate where Cuomo was weak. She provided both geographic and gender balance, and she was also a moderate. Furthermore, Hochul was the party’s sole female statewide candidate that year. Thus, Hochul was plucked from obscurity into the bigtime.
More good fortune: In August 2012 Cuomo became embroiled in a sexual harasssment scandal. He was forced to resign and Hochul became the first female NYS governor without possessing the requisite experience and qualifications. In that type of situation some people are able to grow into the job and be succcessful, whereas others are not. You can decide into which category Hochul belongs.
In 2022 she was elected to a full term. Soon after, her handpicked lieutenant governor, former state Senator Brian Benjamin, was indicted on corruption charges and was forced to resign. Hochul was widely criticized because she had been cognizant of Benjamin’s legal problems, but she picked him regardless.
Hochul’s tenure as governor has been marred by a plethora of issues, controversies and bad decisions, for example;
- She has become known for “flip-flops.” She is not a person of strong convictions. She has changed her positions on topics such as Manhattan congestion pricing, tax policies and immigration, to name a few. Regarding congestion pricing, prior to the 2024 elections she delayed its implementation. Then, afterwards her opinion “evolved,” and she promulgated it. It has been very unpopular especially among the working class and small business owners. In addition, it does not appear to have relieved Manhattan’s congestion problem in the least.
- Prior to her selection as Lt. Governor she was a hardliner on immigration, particularly with respect to illegals obtaining drivers’ licenses. For instance, she opposed a state proposal to grant driver’s licenses to undocumented immigrants, even threatening to have them arrested if they applied at her offices. Then, in 2018, while serving as Lieutenant Governor, she reversed her stance, supporting the initiative to meet the labor demands of upstate farmers. As governor she has turned NY into a sanctuary state. Critics from both the progressive left and conservative right have opined that her policy trajectory on immigration has been unpredictable, with opponents like Bruce Blakeman and Representative Mike Lawler denoting she has shifted positions depending on which political faction she needs to appease at the time. In my view, this flip-flopping is typical of many of her policies. She may characterize this trait as “evolving,” but I view it as gaslighting.
- For years she was known as a moderate Dem, which was one of the main reasons Cuomo picked her as a running mate in the first place. Since Comrade Zoh was elected mayor of NYC, however, rather than restraining his wild policies she has entered into a mutually-beneficial political alliance with him. For example, she provided him with billions of dollars in state aid to help New York City close its considerable budget gap; and they joined forces on expanding free child care initiatives across the city by committing substantial state funding to the program.
- Mamdani has endorsed Hochul’s re-election bid, and Hochul relies on him and his progressive, youthful base for support. As the expression goes, “politics makes strange bedfellows.”
- Hochul has become toxic. A recent poll released by Sienna University/Times Union and NBC, among others, reported that 60% of respondents had an unfavorable view of her. Furthermore, according to the NY Post at least two Dems running for Congress have disavowed that they support her. In an open forum Cait Conley, Dem candidate in the Hudson Valley’s 17th Congressional District, actually agreed with her Repub opponent, Mike Lawler, that Hochul was responsible for NYS’s toxic business climate, including the “highest taxes in the nation,” congestion pricing and excessive red tape, concluding “Hochul has to go.” During a radio station interview North Country Dem nominee Blake Gendbien, who has been closely tied to Hochul, tried to downplay their mutual support by repeatedly dodging the host’s inquiries.
- The governor is supposed to control, or at least influence, the mayor. After all, the governor has the power of the purse. Hochul’s and Zoh’s relationship appears to be at least an equal partnership with Zoh actually dominating at times. Hochul’s motivation is clear. She wants the far left’s support in the current election. Who knows what promises she has made to those lunatics to be promulgated after the election.
- Historically, Hochul was against raising taxes. Yet recently she advocated assessing a tax on secondary homes in New York City. She wanted to implement an annual surcharge on non-primary NYC residences that are worth $5 million and higher, with the proceeds going toward paying down Mamdani’s $5.4 billion city budget gap. The Supreme Court struck this down on technicalities, but it could easily be resurrected, again after the election of course.
- The foregoing are problematic, but they pale before the next one. It’s no secret that NYS is in deep trouble financially. Years of Dem control, which has resulted in excessive spending, high taxes, waste and corruption have led businesses and people with the wherewithall to flee the state and resettle in states with lower taxes, a lower cost of living and a friendlier attitude towards business. The obvious results have been a decline in the tax base and employment opportunities. In this day and age many businesses and individuals can easily operate remotely, and many of them have taken advantage of that. According to multiple media reports some 5,000 businesses have left NY in the last few years, and thousands more have scaled back their operations. Moreover, in 2024 the state had a net decline of nearly 14,000 taxpayers, a disproportunate share of which were high income and wealthy taxpayers. This led to a classic Hochul flip-flop. Initially, in pushing her “tax the rich” program she basically told businesses and rich persons that if they don’t like it they should leave. As noted above many have. Later, recognizing the shrinking tax base she tried to lure them back. Said one commentator, “after taxing the hell out of us and even telling us to leave, Kathy Hochul is now begging people to return.” In short, I maintain that, as governor, one of Hochul’s primary responsibilites is to make NY more attractive to taxpayers, and she has failed miserably at that.
A few days ago Hochul and her Repub opponent, Bruce Blakeman met in their only scheduled debate. Most observers opined that Blakeman “won” decisively. The topics on which he “scored” were (1) the high price of energy, which, due to taxes embedded in the price, are 70% higher than the national average, (2) NYS’s sanctuary state practices, which severely compromise the safety and security of everyone, and (3) her close relationship with Comrade Zoh, an admitted anti-semite. Hochul’s weak rebuttal was to blame President Trump for everything. Voters have been hearing that from Dems for ten years, and they’re tired of it.
“Winning” the debate is fine, but historically, with few exceptions (Kennedy vs Nixon in 1960 being the most famous one) the debate results have not been reflected in the polls. In this case, we will have to wait and see.
CONCLUSION
In my opinion, Hochul’s slim, shakey lead in the polls is an indictment of her poor record as governor as described above. The race should not be nearly this close. NYS is a deep blue state in which the Dem candidate virtually always wins a statewide election, often by a comfortable margin. Dem registered voters outnumber Repubs by more than 2:1 (48% vs 23%). NYS has not elected a Repub governor since George Pataki who served from 1995-2006. It should be noted that since then NY has become even more radically “blue.”
This situation reminds me of a famous expression that a District Attorney requesting a Grand Jury to issue an indictment against a person accused of a crime is almost always successful to the point that it’s been said that the DA could even get the GJ to issue an indictment against a “ham sandwich.” In my opinion, in NYS a majority of people would automatically vote for any Dem candidate regardless of his or her qualifications and experience, even the proverbial “ham sandwich.” (Some of you may recall that in a recent election cycle the voters in deep blue Alleghany County, PA actually elected a dead person to Congress.)
In this analogy, any candidate nominated by the Dems, regardless of his or her experience and qualifications, should defeat the Repub opponent. In this case Hochul represents the “ham sandwich.”
