Once again, the powder keg that we call the Middle East is in danger of exploding. Unfortunately, this seems to recur every few years. Israel has been in a virtually constant state of war ever since its founding in 1948. Many observers are fearful that this situation could easily morph into a wider war, or even WWWIII. Before you scoff at that remember your history. WWI commenced following the assassination of one man, Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand by a deranged Slav activist named Gavrilo Princip. That set off a chain of events that culminated in WWI. It doesn’t take much to light a powder keg. To illustrate the gravity of the situation President Biden took the unusual step of interrupting his vacation on the beach to return to DC to deal with it.
The following comments are based on multiple news reports unless stated otherwise. The situation is very fluid, and by the time you read this it may very well have changed.
Normally, Iran has attacked Israel indirectly through various proxies such as Lebanon, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah that it supports through financing, training or other means. This time Iran launched a massive direct attack of some 300 drones and rockets. Incredibly, Israel with some help from the US, UK and Jordan managed to thwart the attack destroying 99% of them. Israel employed its Iron Dome defense system and also a new defense system it called “David’s Sling.” As I write this the only reported casualty was a seven-year-old girl.
Many Israelis and Jews the world over are very concerned by the possible ramifications of Iran’s blatant attack. Why did Iran do it? Why did it attack Israel directly instead of employing proxies as it has normally done? The ruling mullahs had to know Israel would likely retaliate against them. They had to know that their attack could very easily set off a chain of events that would culminate in a much broader war involving multiple nations.
In the wake of the attack many analysts have posited the opinion that Iran sensed weakness in the Biden Administration and the US’s resolve to support Israel and it determined to seize on the opportunity to attack. One strong possibility was that Iran was emboldened by Biden’s recent well-publicized criticisms of Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Indeed, he has been pressuring Israel to show “restraint” in retaliating against Hamas in Gaza; he has called for Netanyahu to resign; he has threatened to withhold aid; and he has threatened to reassess the US’s staunch support for Israel. Moreover, Biden has continually shown weakness in foreign policy, in general, since he has been in office. From Iran’s point of view, it would be reasonable that there would be no significant consequences for the attack. Indeed, speaking on ABC’s Good Morning America National Security Council spokesman John Kirby cautioned that a response “could result in the conflict spreading,” the implication being that Israel should just let it go. Biden was less discrete saying that Israel should just be satisfied that 99% of the drones and rockets were shot down and “take the win.” I guess the Iranian rulers were not deterred by Biden’s simplistic, vague and inane warning of “don’t.” Finally, you know that our other enemies, Russia, China and North Korea, are paying close attention to developments and re-assessing their own foreign policies.
As reported by Mark Dubowitz and Behnam Ben Teleblu in the NY Post Iran is claiming that the attack was in retaliation for Israel’s recent bombing attack, which killed several senior Hamas officials including General Mohammad Reza Zahedi who reputedly played a significant role in the planning and execution of the October 7 terror attacks. Of course, that is a specious argument as that bombing was, itself, in retaliation for those attacks. Afterwards, Iran warned Israel against any “reckless behavior” in retaliation vowing it would engender a much more robust response. Regardless, Iran has left itself open to a significant retaliatory attack. Israel would have a plethora of rich targets to choose from including Iran’s oil refineries and nuclear bomb facilities.
Following the attack Israel’s war cabinet met immediately to discuss how to respond. Ominously, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured that Israel had been prepared for such an attack and vowed it would “respond accordingly.” War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz asserted that Israel “would take the actions [against Iran] that it deems appropriate [and] exact the price from Iran in the fashion and timing that is right for us.” It’s safe to assume that Israel will brook no interference from the US, the UN, or anyone else.
Israel has few friends in the world, and it will need the unwavering support of the US to survive this war. In view of the current lukewarm relationship between Israel and the US it is appropriate to wonder how strongly the US will support Israel. In my opinion, such concern is warranted. True, President Biden has assured that the US’s support for Israel is “ironclad.” But wait, isn’t that the same Joe Biden who abandoned hundreds of Americans and Afghanis who had supported us for years at great personal risk to an uncertain fate due to his ill-advised and ill-timed withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan? Isn’t that the same Joe Biden who has been assuring us for three plus years that the southern border is secure when anyone with two eyes can see evidence daily that it is not? Isn’t that the same Joe Biden that has been assuring us that inflation is under control when a quick trip to the grocery store or the gas station tells you it is not? Isn’t that the same Joe Biden who brags about his modest working-class roots in Scranton but yet has managed to accumulate a published net worth in excess of $10 million, excluding any surreptitious payments from foreign governments for access and favors, even though he has never held a job outside of government service? Of course it is. Biden is well known for saying one thing and doing another. Furthermore, Biden’s recent lukewarm, wishy-washy, often contentious attitude toward Israel would suggest his support for Israel will be far from “ironclad.”
Meanwhile, in other developments:
- In various US cities “activists” cheered and celebrated after learning that Iran had launched the attack on Israel.
- Despite Iran’s claim that the attack was a “retaliation” the IDF views it as a desire to “escalate” the ongoing conflict.
- Various media outlets in the US and elsewhere published scathing criticisms of Biden’s “timid” policy toward Iran and mocked his ineffectual “don’t” admonitions to Iran.
- Campaigning in PA former President Trump attributed Iran’s attack to the US having shown “great weakness,” and it “should not have happened” and “wouldn’t have [if he were president]”. Many would agree.
- In the US and elsewhere groups of “activists “have been taking to the streets disrupting traffic brandishing flags of Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah while burning the American flag and chanting death to America, death to Israel, and death to Jews. More on this later.
- Some commentators predicted that oil prices would “surge,” the extent of which would depend on how long and how extensive the fighting turns out to be.
- Appearing on Sunday Morning Futures John Ratcliffe, former Director of National Intelligence, delineated an extensive list of Biden’s “blunders” with respect to relations with Iran and opined that the US’s “fractured” relationship with Israel emboldened Iran to launch its attack. Many other commentators have expressed similar thoughts.
- Israel has augmented its forces in southern Gaza, which many believe is an indication it will attack Rafah. Located on the border with Egypt Rafah is Hamas’ last refuge in Gaza. In addition, it houses an estimated one million displaced Palestinian non-combatants. Biden has advised Israel “don’t,” but Israel is not inclined to heed his advice. According to today’s NY Post an attack is “imminent.” As always, Israel will do its utmost to minimize civilian casualties, and as always it will be severely criticized if there is but one.
- Appearing on CNN PA Senator John Fetterman, a Democrat, strongly disagreed with Biden’s statement that the US would not participate in any offensive operations against Iran. He added that he would never “capitulate to the fringe” of the Dem party, as Biden has.
- Appearing on Fox News Sunday John Kirby called on China to help “de-escalate” tensions in the ME. Good luck with that.
So, what can the US do? Biden convened a meeting of the G7 to examine diplomatic solutions. Fine as far as it goes, but I don’t have much faith that diplomacy, by itself, will resolve this situation. Additionally, the Wall Street Journal reported that he moved two destroyers to the region as a deterrent.
Short of war, which no one wants, the best course of action would be to reinstitute sanctions. Put together a consortium of nations. Strangle Iran financially. Freeze the $10 billion of its money that Biden has unfrozen. Convince other countries to cease importing Iran’s oil. We could even resume domestic drilling (not likely). Fighting wars takes money, lots of it. If Iran doesn’t have money, it can’t finance war or even terror activities. Passing an aid package would be a good idea, but so far Congress has been unable to do so. Typically, each party is blaming the other for that.
Conclusion
In his foreign policy regarding Israel Biden has continually tried to walk a tightrope worthy of the Flying Wallendas’ circus act. He is trying to please both Jewish voters and the far-left radicals in his party. So far, he has pleased neither. With typical lack of clarity and decisiveness, which has characterized his entire foreign policy, Biden recently made two contradictory statements regarding support for Israel. On the one hand, he reaffirmed the US’s “ironclad commitment” to Israel, but then as reported by CNN he also informed Israel that the US would not participate in any “offensive” actions against Iran. Huh?
As the expression goes, “actions speak louder than words.” As I said above, Biden consistently says one thing then does another. His mendacity knows no bounds. He is willing to sell out Israel, a staunch and reliable ally and the only one in the ME, in order to win an election. According to the polls his support among Blacks and Hispanics has been sharply declining, and in my view, he is kowtowing to the far left because he is terrified he will lose their support as well and hence the election.
These people he is courting are despicable. They are antisemitic and anti-American. Many of them are not even citizens. They are here on work visas or college visas or perhaps illegally. They are guests in the US and have no right to chant “death to America.” In my opinion they should all be deported. If Biden really truly intends to support Israel, he needs to communicate that to Iran clearly, decisively and definitively and above all act like it. I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for that.
We Built It Blog by Larry Jacob 