Tag: Iran

DEAL OR NO DEAL

As always, the contents of this blog are a compendium of multiple media reports supplemented by my personal opinion where indicated.

Below please find my observations, thoughts and opinions with respect to the war with Iran:

  1. Here’s a statement on which all sane, rational, objective persons can agree. IRAN CAN NEVER BE ALLOWED TO POSSESS NUCLEAR CAPABILITY! Anyone who cannot endorse that statement needs to have their head examined. Furthermore, they should be automatically disqualified from holding any responsible government political office or leadership position (on the grounds of deficient mental acuity). Apparently, that includes many if not most of the Dem politicians.
  2. Trump did not want a war. He reiterated that point over and over again. He wanted to make a deal, but a deal the US could live with such as (1) an Iran devoid of nuclear capability, (2) unfettered and independent inspections, and (3) penalties for non-compliance, among other things. The Iranian leadership has been gaslighting us on this for decades. They say they want to make a deal, but they don’t really want to do so. Like I said in my previous blog it’s the Iranian version of “rope-a-dope.”
  3. A nuclear capable Iran would pose an existential threat not only to Israel, not only to the ME, but to the entire world. Its leaders are religious fanatics. They hate and want to kill anyone who is not a “true believer.” They are fanatical enough to use it, even if it would mean mutual destruction. They simply don’t care.
  4. The concept that America is protected by two vast oceans is outdated. In a war we would be in range of our enemies’ ballistic missiles. Moreover, there is the threat from within posed by terrorist cells.
  5. As I write this, the war is eleven days old. Militarily, it has been a success beyond all expectations. In that short period the US and Israel have destroyed Iran’s Air Force, sunken in excess of 60 naval vessels (which constituted most of its navy), and taken out most of its missiles and missile launchers. 
  6. Enjoying complete air superiority, Israeli and US bombers have had free rein to attack any targets they choose. As I write this, they have destroyed more than 5,500 targets inside Iran, and Trump has said there will be more to come.
  7. They have killed the Supreme Leader, virtually all of the top echelon of leaders and advisors and most of the second tier.
  8. Trump has made it clear that the Ayatollah’s replacement must have his support, or else he won’t “last long.” We don’t want to end up with a government of more of the same. They have chosen Mojtaba Khamenel, son of the late Supreme Leader, who likely will likely be more of the same.
  9. Anyone who doubts the urgency and legitimacy of this war should listen to Steve Witkoff, the US’s co-chief negotiator. He told Fox News that at the latest meeting the Iranian negotiators’ first comment was to brag about how they had surreptitiously developed 460kg of 60% enriched uranium. It’s been estimated that Iran could have enriched it up to 90%, which is weapons grade, in a mere ten days or fewer. At that point Iran would have possessed nuclear weapons.
  10. Iran tried to gaslight Witkoff by insisting its nuclear goals were peaceful, but Witkoff denoted that if that were true there would have been no need to enrich beyond 20%.
  11. The Iranians told Witkoff they viewed it as their “inalienable right” to develop such weapons. Witkoff responded that it was our “inalienable right” to stop them. At that point it was clear that there would be no deal.
  12. The Strait of Hormuz, which is just South of Iran, is a vital choke point for oil that is shipped to and from the ME. Some 20% of the world’s oil is shipped through it. In order to disrupt the oil markets Iran has attempted to blockade it and attack ships traversing it. A few days ago, it sunk three oil tankers, and it sought to mine the strait even though Trump had warned them not to do it.
  13. As a result of Iran’s actions, the price of oil has been fluctuating wildly. A few days ago, it hit a high of $119.50 per barrel before retreating to $90 on Monday. We sunk their warships, which is good, but we’re not completely out of the woods yet. It has been reported that Iran still has a multitude of small boats, minesweepers and sea explosives.
  14. The International Energy Agency, which for decades has monitored global crude oil supplies and helped to prevent price shocks, announced that its 32 member countries would release 400 million barrels of oil from their respective strategic reserves. That would represent the largest release ever and the first such coordinated action since 2022. However, the IEA has not yet released details about when countries will start releasing oil, nor how much they will be able to put into the market at a time. The goal is to moderate rising oil prices prospectively.
  15. Hezbollah, in an ill-advised strategic move, has been attacking Israel with barrages of rockets. Israel has responded with waves of airstrikes in Lebanon and an extensive ground campaign. To date, more than 630 people have been killed in Lebanon, and some 1,500 others have been injured.
  16. The primary critics of the war have been the Dem politicians and their allies in the media. They can’t help themselves. As I have said in prior blogs this war is not one of choice. It is of necessity. This is not a replay of the Bush Administration’s false claims of “weapons of mass destruction.” Naturally the Dems have been critical. First, they claimed that it was illegal since Congress was not consulted beforehand, and only Congress has the constitutional authority to declare war. Nevertheless, precedent for a president starting a war is clearly on Trump’s side. Presidents have been doing so all the way back to Thomas Jefferson and the Barbary Pirates Wars (beginning in 1803). The idea of consulting with Congress on war strategy is absurd on its face. There would be no confidentiality. One does not disclose to the enemy when and where one will be attacking. That claim was thwarted.
  17. Now, many of them are still claiming there is no clearcut strategy. They just don’t “get it.” For example, Senator Richard Blumenthal (D CT) told reporters, “I emerged from [last Tuesday’s] briefing [to the Senate Armed Services Committee] as dissatisfied and angry, frankly, as I have from any past briefing in my 15 years.” I say, why, about what? Our goals are crystal clear. Chuck Schumer (dead man walking politically) still professes that Trump’s justification for the war is “confusing” and exhibits “blatant disregard” for [the safety of] American soldiers. I didn’t realize he was that ignorant of history. Maybe, he should research the preamble to WWII and read my last two blogs.
  18. Although Iran cannot defeat us militarily, it does present a real clear and present danger via possible terrorist attacks. It likely has a plethora of terror cells in the US that it could activate if it hasn’t already. We are especially vulnerable since the Dems have caused a government shutdown which is undermining the effectiveness of the DHS and the secret service, which have responsibility for ferreting out and preventing terrorist attacks. I urge Congress to agree on a deal to end the shutdown asap. (Schumer, are you listening, or are you confused about that too?

Conclusion

Iran miscalculated our power and our resolve. They were not the first, and they won’t be the last to do so. They are paying dearly for their miscalculation. Iran’s only hope is to turn American public opinion against the war like with the Vietnam War.

We must exhibit resolve in the face of economic adversity. This war is too important, and I don’t believe it will last a long time. I view it as short-term pain, long-term gain. I repeat, IRAN CANNOT BE ALLOWED TO HAVE NUCLEAR CAPABILITY.

No deals, except unconditional surrender.

by Tags: , , , , Leave a comment

THE WAR WITH IRAN

As always, this blog is based on a compendium of multiple media reports supplemented by my personal opinion, where indicated.

The decision to go to war with Iran was not a “reckless,” “spur of the moment” decision as some Dems and other critics would have you believe. President Trump repeatedly advocated for a peaceful settlement, but due to Iran’s intransigent negotiating strategy it became obvious that it would never agree to curtail its quest to become a nuclear power. He warned them what would happen, and then he followed through. As I have always said, Trump says what he means and means what he says.

I believe that in retrospect we can all see that Trump began to lay the groundwork for a potential war with Iran in his first administration beginning with the Abraham Accords. Furthermore, he has nurtured a positive relationship with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States most of which are also fearful of a nuclear-armed Iran. So, this was a well-planned, well-thought-out operation. Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.

Remember, every war has its underlying causes and an immediate cause. In this case the underlying causes were thousands of years of religious antipathy and 47 years of terrorist activities committed by Iran and its proxies. In 1979 a group of religious fanatics overthrew the government run by Mohammad Reza Pahlavi (aka “The Shah of Iran”). Since then, Iran has become the primary source of terrorist activities in the Middle East, the US and Europe. It has been well-funded by oil money and its allies such as Russia and China.

In recent years Iran has engaged in various negotiations with the US and others aimed at achieving a lasting peace in the ME. Lately, however, it has become increasingly apparent that Iran does not really want peace and never did. It has engaged in several negotiations and agreed to various peace deals such as the toothless Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal, but it never abided by them. What it does want and has always wanted is nuclear capability, and recently the evidence shows unequivocably that it was very close to achieving that, maybe within weeks. According to Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, currently the US’s chief negotiators with Iran, the Iranian negotiators admitted as much at the most recent meeting, even bragging about how it had achieved that status surreptitiously,

What many have long suspected became obvious. All of the negotiations with prior presidents were just camouflage, an Iranian “rope-a-dope,” if you will. The US has tried to bribe Iran with various concessions and billions of dollars, all of which failed. Finally, in Donald Trump we have a president who was not deceived, who realized that the world was being “gas lighted” big-time, who would not be deterred from what must be done, who had the cojones to do what was right as opposed to what was politically expedient, and who realized that the world was rapidly approaching Armageddon. The timing was propitious. Iran had been weakened by previous attacks, and its citizens were rising up against the government. The feeling was if not now, when?

Simply put, Trump realized what these prior administrations did not or were afraid to act on. Iran, a country that was governed by religious fanatics who were virulently antisemitic, anti-Israel, anti-America, and anti-Christian and had repeatedly openly declared that its goal was to destroy Israel and the US, could never be allowed to possess nuclear capability. Surely, they would not hesitate to use it. Even the mere threat of them using it would destabilize the entire ME if not the world. That realization was the immediate cause. Anyone who doubts the righteousness of Trump’s decision need only recall the preamble to WWII. During the 1930’s European leaders repeated appeased Hitler in the hope of avoiding war. We all know how that worked out.

I am perplexed why any clear and objective thinker would criticize this war. Yet, the Dems have not disappointed. They are predictably consistent, the gift that keeps on giving. The defenders of criminals, illegal aliens, election fraud, and boys participating in girls’ sports cannot help themselves. Their DNA requires them to criticize anything Trump advocates or does. In the words of the late former president Ronald Reagan, “there they go again.”

Many members of Congress are mad that Congress wasn’t asked for prior approval or even consulted beforehand. For example, Hakeem Jeffries said that “the Trump administration must explain itself to the American people and Congress immediately, provide an ironclad justification for this act of war, clearly define the national security objective and articulate a plan to avoid another costly, prolonged military quagmire in the Middle East.” For good measure he opined we would lose the war. Majority leader Chuck Schumer, said this war is “not necessary.” He called for “more information.” In her typically “wishy-washy” manner, NY Governor Kathy Hochul was all over the place, afraid to offend anyone. She “blasted” the Iranian regime as a “global threat,” but then in the next breath she commented that “it is deeply disturbing that we entered a war without an exit strategy.” My response to them is Trump’s actions were no different than those of other recent presidents. Also, once a decision was made speed and confidentiality were paramount to success. You don’t tell the enemy where and when you are coming. Finally, words of wisdom from Senator John Kennedy (R LA), he of the acerbic wit; “We’re not trying to start a war…We’re trying to end it.” And, with respect to the late Ayatollah, “may he rest in ‘pieces.’ ”

Trump is angry with some of our European allies including the UK, Spain and France, among others for refusing to allow the US to utilize their bases to refuel during the attacks particularly since their countries have already been victimized by Iranian-sponsored terrorism, and they are already within the range of Iran’s missiles. He denigrated UK’s PM, Keir Starmer, as “no Winston Churchill.”

Conclusion

An Iran with nuclear capability would have presented an existential threat not only to Israel and the US, but to the entire world. Be honest. Would you have rested easy in that case? I think not.

As I said, already some of its ballistic missiles have the capability to reach parts of Europe. That makes our European allies’ actions even more puzzling. In a short time, Iran would likely have developed enhanced weaponry with the capability to reach parts of the US as well. Heretofore, the nations that have had nuclear capability have exercised responsibility and restraint. They may bluster and threaten from time to time, but they know that using a nuclear weapon would likely provoke an all-out war that would devastate everything and everyone. I and many others believe that the Mullahs of Iran, being crazy, deranged lunatics, could not be counted on to follow suit.

This should be an all-out war. No halfway measures. Finish the job once and for all. Don’t fight not to lose. Fight to win. When Iran loses, and it will lose, I advocate unconditional surrender.

Trump’s critics, which are legion, have characterized this war as a “war of choice.” In fact, in my view it is just the opposite. It is a war of survival. Therefore, Trump should be applauded, not criticized, for his actions. To his critics I say take a deep breath, hold your nose, swallow your pride, suspend your TDS and be grateful he is our president.

by Tags: , , , , Leave a comment

IRAN’S COMEUPPANCE

The following is a compendium of various news reports regarding the Israel-Iran War, which, as most of us know is currently raging in the Middle East, supplemented by my own opinion sprinkled in where noted.

In my view, almost anyone who was paying attention to world events knew it was only a matter of time. It was obvious that Iran, despite its continuous denials, was developing nuclear weapons and the capacity to deliver them. Also, everyone knew that it would not hesitate to use them once it was able to do so. Iran has been very blunt with respect to its goal to destroy Israel and then wreak havoc on other countries it perceived to be enemies, including the US.

I maintain it was equally obvious that Israel would never allow Iran to possess such weaponry. Jews have already suffered through one Holocaust; they do not need another.

Israel has been at war since its founding as a nation. It knows this war is literally a fight to the death. If the US leadership were to continue in its appeasement policy, it was prepared to act alone. Once Donald Trump became president and the US expressed unwavering and unconditional support of Israel’s “no nuclear weapon for Iran” policy the die was cast. I’m surprised it waited so long to “drop the hammer,” but I suppose Trump and Netanyahu wanted to give peace a chance.

As I have written many times Trump is not wishy-washy like Joe Biden and other former US presidents. He says what he means and means what he says. He gave Iran 60 days to agree to a deal, and on the 61st day he gave Israel the go-ahead. In turn, Israel has unleashed holy hell on Iran. In just a few days Israel has destroyed much of Iran’s nuclear capacity, killed much of its leadership and nuclear scientists, virtually destroyed its air force, and has the country at its mercy.

As I said, Trump has repeatedly said he wants peace, but he is prepared for war. The US already had substantial assets in the ME region, and recently, as a show of force, it tasked another aircraft carrier group to the area due to what the US military termed “an emergent operational requirement.” As the expression goes, “hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.”

Messrs. Trump and Netanyahu have been working closely together to thwart Iran. In a sense they have been providing a blueprint of how to deal with a genocidal terrorist autocratic regime. Now, it appears that there is a real chance to transform the geopolitics of the ME. In due course, perhaps other Arab nations will join the “Abraham Accords” that Trump has been advocating. You may have noticed the deafening silence from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the other ME nations. They didn’t want Iran to have nuclear capacity either. No one does. No one trusts them not to use it.

Predictably, the biggest opposition has been coming from within the US from the TDS-afflicted far-left wing of the Dem Party and their allies in the media. For example, Hakeem Jeffries wants it both ways. While acknowledging that “Iran should never be allowed to become nuclear capable” he has backtracked by advocating for a “reduction in hostilities.” Doofus Tim Walz is bemoaning the fact that the US, by its unwavering support of Israel, has ceased to be a “neutral arbitrator.” Not to be outdone, Ilhan Omar has chimed in with what the NY Post termed her usual “antisemitic dog whistles.” As expected, the country’s leading Jewish politician, (Up)Chuck Schumer, has failed to express support for Israel. One of the few voices of reason among Dem leaders has been PA Senator John Fetterman who told the Jewish Insider he was “shocked by his ‘party pals’ ‘ views.” I say, he shouldn’t have been.

Iran is the very definition of a rogue nation with an unhinged leadership. It is an integral part of a rogue’s gallery of nations that includes Russia, China and North Korea. It has been the world’s biggest sponsor of terrorism. Through its proxies, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Hootie’s and other terrorist organizations it has fomented mayhem and death throughout the ME, Europe and the US. It has attempted to assassinate President Trump at least twice, and it is reputed to have several terrorist cells active in the US. In my view, it deserves what it gets.

CONCLUSION

Clearly, Iran’s leadership, through arrogance or blind hatred, miscalculated the situation. They were used to dealing with appeasers like former presidents Biden and Obama whom they were able to “string along” with deceit and deception and who offered only tepid support for Israel. They didn’t realize that Trump is totally different from them. Their insane hatred of Israel blinded their reason, and now they will pay for it.

Now, Israel is in total control of the situation. If it chooses it could assassinate the Ayatollah, and destroy Iran’s oil fields, which would render the country leaderless and bankrupt. Trump has urged some restraint “for now.” Perhaps, he is patiently waiting for the Iranian people to rise up and displace the country’s current leadership, which is reputed to be widely unpopular. The Ayatollah could always follow in the footsteps of Syria’s former president Bashar al-Assad who fled to Russia. However, Trump’s patience won’t last forever. The situation has been evolving rapidly. Stay tuned.

by Tags: , , , , Leave a comment

IRAN’S COMEUPPANCE

What are the three words that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khomenei, and the rest of its leadership group dread more than any other? Repeat after me: it’s “drill, baby, drill.”

In 2020 Iran was on the brink of bankruptcy. The US’s fossil fuel production and exportation and Trump’s sanctions were strangling its economy. But then, the Biden Administration’s ill-advised policy of restricting US fossil fuel production coupled with relaxing sanctions and cash payments enabled Iran to flourish financially. In addition, it provided Iran with the means to finance its nuclear program and provide funding and other means of support to various terrorist groups, such as Hamas and Hezbollah. Trump’s re-election will change all that. Iran’s leadership is cognizant of that, and therefore it is, or should be, very, very concerned. More on that below.

Trump has made no secret of his intent. He has long been a strong supporter of the US fossil fuels industry. He has been repeating his mantra of “drill, baby, drill” for months. It has become one of the cornerstones of his campaign. This will also include building new refineries, power plants, and reactors and reopening the Keystone Pipeline. In conjunction with increasing production he maintains that his policy will “slash red tape” and reverse many restrictions and regulations regarding US carbon emissions.

The US has more oil reserves than any other country, and it has the ability to become the number one producer and exporter of oil and gas. The Green New Deal advocates will squawk, but Trump’s landslide election victory has given him the power to proceed. That was his approach during his first term, and it worked as I noted above. Even more concerning to Iran is that Trump has the reputation of saying what he means and meaning what he says.

Multiple media sources have reported that Trump will initiate his fossil fuel policy within a few days of his inauguration. The people elected him for that purpose, and he will be only too eager to follow through. The likelihood is that Trump fossil fuel policy will exert maximum pressure on Iran (as well as other fossil producing countries).

According to Reuters Trump is prepared to enact a “wide-ranging energy plan” to explore and drill for oil and gas, including off the coast of the US and on federal lands, for both domestic use and export. For example, according to Bloomberg.com Trump has advised that his administration will be “ready within seconds” to do so.

Newsweek and Montana’s Livingston Enterprise reported that Mike Dunleavy, Alaska’s governor, has been urging Trump to commence exploring for fossil fuels in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. This would be very controversial. The potential economic benefits would be substantial as the lands sits on an estimated 7 -12 billion barrels of oil. On the other hand, the ANWR is an ecosystem that supports some 700 species of plants and animals. Various environmental groups have long been opposed to developing this area. Their opposition has been supported by a goodly portion of Congress.

In my view Trump’s fossil fuel policy will yield various benefits:

  1. He has claimed his policies will reduce energy prices “in half within 12 months,” which, in turn, will reduce inflation. Exaggeration? Hyperbole? Perhaps, but I wouldn’t bet against it.
  2. It will exert maximum pressure on Iran (as well as other fossil producing countries) to be more flexible in their relations with the US.
  3. Trump will likely exert pressure on Iran to (1) curb its support of terrorist organizations, (2) curtail its development of a nuclear weapon, and (3) and tone down its hostility toward Israel.
  4. Similarly, Russia’s oil revenue would be reduced and with it its influence over our European allies who are presently overly dependent on Russia for their oil. Furthermore, the loss of revenue would impair its ability to fund its war with Ukraine, which might make it more amenable to negotiating a settlement.
  5. It will roll back much of the wasteful and inflationary Green New Deal. He has vowed to “rescind all unspent funds.” Despite its many flaws and wasteful provisions, the GND has many supporters even some among the GOP, so the expectation is that he will direct his staff and allies in Congress to “use a scalpel rather than a sledgehammer” in effecting cuts.
  6. Trump will likely take a hard look at electric vehicles. They have their supporters and detractors, but there is no need to make them mandatory as the Dems want to do.

CONCLUSION

Trump’s overall energy policy is supported by a clear majority of Americans. For the reasons cited above its implementation will benefit the country economically, politically, militarily, geopolitically, and security-wise. Some parts of it will be implemented on Day 1; other parts will take a few weeks or months; still other parts will take longer or may be blocked entirely. However, we can be confident that Trump will follow through to the best of his ability. He has his strong mandate. He will not be deterred.

He will make America united again. He will make America strong again. He will make America respected again. He will make America safe again. Most importantly, he will make America great again.

by Tags: , , , , , , , Leave a comment

ISRAEL TAKES OUT LONGTIME HEZBOLLAH LEADER WITH MASSIVE AIR STRIKE

Over this past weekend, in another act of defiance aimed at the Biden-Harris Administration (“BH”), the UN and all of its other critics throughout the world Israel unleashed multiple massive air attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon killing longtime Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and various additional members of the terror group’s leadership. Among the dead was Nabil Kaouk, who had been viewed as a possible successor to Nasrallah. The attack was so powerful that it leveled six buildings in the vicinity. Israel has now killed seven of Hezbollah’s top leaders in the space of just over one week.

As we know, since the Muslim terror attacks Last October 7 BH has been urging Israel to temper its response. Among other things, BH has repeatedly urged Israel to pursue a “measured” response (whatever that is), publicly criticized President Netanyahu’s aggressive prosecution of the war, called for him to resign, slow-walked military aid, and continually pushed for a cease fire and peace negotiations with a two-state solution (which neither side wants). Israel, as is its wont, has pushed back against what it deems to be unwarranted interference. It has reiterated many times that it will continue to attack aggressively until it has achieved its goal of destroying the fighting capability of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. This attack is the latest iteration.

This attack was the culmination of a long-term intelligence operation. These attacks were very cleverly planned over years. As a result of extensive hacking and surveillance Israel was able to acquire copious amounts of information with respect to Hezbollah’s top leaders, including personal information and their travel routines. For instance, Israeli spies were able to hack various surveillance cameras in Lebanon and even monitor the odometers on their cars. This paid off on Friday as Israel was able to pinpoint Nasrallah’s precise location.

Israel had developed special powerful ordnance specifically designed to penetrate 60 feet underground to where it knew the terrorists were hiding. It deployed approximately 80 tons of these bombs. The terrorists had no clue of the Israelis’ capabilities to penetrate their bunker. They thought they were safe. They were, until they weren’t. Kudos to the Israelis.

Additionally, yesterday, the IDF launched a massive attack against the Houthis. The key targets included the group’s facilities in the vicinity of the ports of Ras Issa and Hodeida and several power plants in the area. This was in retaliation for the Houthis’ attempting to shoot down Netanyahu’s plane on Friday.

CONCLUSION

President Netanyahu characterized Nasrallah’s death as an “historic turning point” in the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict.” Perhaps, it was a tad hyperbolic, but there is little doubt that Hezbollah, with its leadership decimated, was dealt a serious blow.

In my opinion, these attacks sent a clear and direct message to the terrorists and Iran, their sponsor, which is that there is no longer any safe hiding place. The world now knows that (1) Israel is capable of launching bunker-buster bombs that can penetrate to the terrorists’ hideouts deep underground; (2) Israel has the technology to enable it to ascertain the whereabouts of them at any time; and (3) Israel has the resolve to use its new ordnance and technology whenever and wherever it chooses.

by Tags: , , , , , Leave a comment

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR – DEAL OR NO DEAL

I will spare you the suspense. The answer is NO DEAL.

Since the advent of the Israel-Hamas war the Biden-Harris Administration has been pushing for a cease fire followed by a negotiated peace between Israel and Hamas with a two-state solution. At a cursory glance, this may sound like a reasonable resolution as it would, in theory, free the hostages and stop the killing. However, anyone who understands the root causes of the war and the motivations of Iran, Hamas and the other terrorist groups, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, would realize this is a pipedream. It was doomed from the start. It will never happen. Neither side is motivated to negotiate a peace at the present time, and neither side is in favor of a two-state solution. I will explain below.

In order to comprehend the current mindset of the combatants one must understand the history of the area. Briefly, Muslims and Jews have been fighting over the ME for thousands of years. Each has what it believes is a legitimate claim to the area. Each side considers Jerusalem and the surrounding area to be central and indispensable to its religion. Each refers to the area as The Holy Land. In my opinion, throughout history religion has been one of the most frequent (if not the most frequent) causes of wars.

Israel has been in a constant state of war since even before its founding in 1948. At one time or another it has fought against all of the Arab states in the ME, some of them multiple times, often fighting several states at once. Moreover, it has been a frequent victim of terrorist attacks. Try to imagine what it’s like to live in a constant state of war.

The Arabs’ objective has always been and still is to drive the Jews out of the area, better yet to wipe them out. That is part of Hamas’ charter. Israel’s objective is merely to survive. So far, Israel has won every war despite the heavy odds against it. It fights with a sense of desperation and determination since it knows it cannot afford to lose even one war.

At this point it realizes as do many of us that it must eliminate Hamas entirely as a threat. Otherwise, history tells that prospectively there will another attack, and another, and another, until one time the Arabs will win. If that were to happen Israel would be destroyed. So, Israel is fighting for its very survival. Each side wants total victory. Neither side wants a negotiated peace that will fall short of its objective.

The US has always been a staunch ally of Israel and vice a versa since 1948. They have developed and maintained a symbiotic relationship. The US’s support is vital to Israel’s survival, and Israel has been the US’s only reliable ally in the volatile and strategically critical ME. This goes for every Administration, whether Republican or Democrat, whether liberal or conservative. Every Administration, that is, until now.

BH either don’t understand this or are choosing to ignore it for political reasons. BH have tried to undermine Israel’s war effort from the inception. For example:

  1. Despite the horrific attacks on October 7, they have urged Israel to use “restraint” ignoring the basic tenant that as the attacked country Israel has a right, duty and obligation to retaliate in any manner it sees fit.
  2. They have slow-walked or even withheld aid.
  3. When Israel retaliated in force as any country would they tried to undermine Prime Minister Netanyahu. They even advocated that he resign.
  4. Many considered these actions and others to be blatant and unwarranted interference in the internal affairs of an ally.
  5. By refusing to reinstate the economic sanctions against Iran they have enabled it to continue to wreak havoc in several parts of the world. In fact, it can be argued that presently Iran is the nexus of instability in the world. (a) It is supporting Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis politically, militarily and financially. In addition to Hamas’ attack, Hezbollah has fired some 7,500 rockets at Israel during the war. (Israel retaliated in a small, but clever, way by the “exploding pagers” caper that killed and wounded several Hezbollah terrorists and unfortunately some civilians.) The Houthis have been causing unrest in Yemen. (b) It has been aiding for Russia in its war against Ukraine. (c) It is probably funding all the anti-Israel, antisemitic protests in the US. (d) It is likely engaging in election interference in the 2024 presidential election. It wants Harris to beat Trump because it knows she will be a “soft touch,” whereas Trump will likely reinstate sanctions and curtail its influence in the world. To that end it has hacked the Trump campaign’s website, provided confidential election material to Harris’ campaign, and possibly has been attempting to assassinate Trump.
  6. The White House has been pressuring Israel to accept a series of flawed cease fire and peace deals in order to, it claims, secure the return of the hostages and save military and civilian lives. Everyone agrees with those goals, but the details of each of those deals were extremely disadvantageous to Israel. For example, they would have allowed Iran to continue its destabilizing activities and would have enabled Hamas to retain its fighting capabilities and its leadership, which would have virtually guaranteed another war at some point. Thus, these flawed deals may have forged a temporary peace, but they would not have constituted a permanent solution.
  7. It is clear to me and many others that these actions were politically motivated. It is an election year, and a sizeable section of the Dem Party is pro-Hamas/anti-Israel/antisemitic. BH are trying to placate those people to win an election regardless of the consequences. They are trying to walk a fine line by paying lip service to Israel and its supporters without losing the support of these radicals.

Conclusion

As I said above, any peace deal that includes a two-state solution is dead on arrival. Neither side is in favor of it. The Israelis want to finish off Hamas as an effective fighting force. Hamas wants to annihilate Israel and all the Jews. It wants all the land “from the river to the sea.” That is their mantra. I say, take them at their word.

BH are either not cognizant of that fact or refuse to acknowledge it. Their ill-conceived, ill-advised policies have prolonged the war and will end up costing more lives. Furthermore, they refuse to comprehend that Iran is the primary instigator of instability in the region and the world at large. They will have to deal with Iran one way or another before any lasting, meaningful peace can be achieved.

So far, this has been another failed BH policy, one of many. It reminds me of that familiar disparaging expression, “everything they touch turns to s**t.”

Many Jews may hate Trump for various reasons, which have been well-chronicled. But one thing is for certain. Right now, he is the best friend Israel has, and its survival may hinge on his winning the election.

by Tags: , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

IRAN’S BLATANT ATTACK ON ISRAEL

Once again, the powder keg that we call the Middle East is in danger of exploding. Unfortunately, this seems to recur every few years. Israel has been in a virtually constant state of war ever since its founding in 1948. Many observers are fearful that this situation could easily morph into a wider war, or even WWWIII. Before you scoff at that remember your history. WWI commenced following the assassination of one man, Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand by a deranged Slav activist named Gavrilo Princip. That set off a chain of events that culminated in WWI. It doesn’t take much to light a powder keg. To illustrate the gravity of the situation President Biden took the unusual step of interrupting his vacation on the beach to return to DC to deal with it.

The following comments are based on multiple news reports unless stated otherwise. The situation is very fluid, and by the time you read this it may very well have changed.

Normally, Iran has attacked Israel indirectly through various proxies such as Lebanon, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah that it supports through financing, training or other means. This time Iran launched a massive direct attack of some 300 drones and rockets. Incredibly, Israel with some help from the US, UK and Jordan managed to thwart the attack destroying 99% of them. Israel employed its Iron Dome defense system and also a new defense system it called “David’s Sling.” As I write this the only reported casualty was a seven-year-old girl.

Many Israelis and Jews the world over are very concerned by the possible ramifications of Iran’s blatant attack. Why did Iran do it? Why did it attack Israel directly instead of employing proxies as it has normally done? The ruling mullahs had to know Israel would likely retaliate against them. They had to know that their attack could very easily set off a chain of events that would culminate in a much broader war involving multiple nations.

In the wake of the attack many analysts have posited the opinion that Iran sensed weakness in the Biden Administration and the US’s resolve to support Israel and it determined to seize on the opportunity to attack. One strong possibility was that Iran was emboldened by Biden’s recent well-publicized criticisms of Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Indeed, he has been pressuring Israel to show “restraint” in retaliating against Hamas in Gaza; he has called for Netanyahu to resign; he has threatened to withhold aid; and he has threatened to reassess the US’s staunch support for Israel. Moreover, Biden has continually shown weakness in foreign policy, in general, since he has been in office. From Iran’s point of view, it would be reasonable that there would be no significant consequences for the attack. Indeed, speaking on ABC’s Good Morning America National Security Council spokesman John Kirby cautioned that a response “could result in the conflict spreading,” the implication being that Israel should just let it go. Biden was less discrete saying that Israel should just be satisfied that 99% of the drones and rockets were shot down and “take the win.” I guess the Iranian rulers were not deterred by Biden’s simplistic, vague and inane warning of “don’t.” Finally, you know that our other enemies, Russia, China and North Korea, are paying close attention to developments and re-assessing their own foreign policies.

As reported by Mark Dubowitz and Behnam Ben Teleblu in the NY Post Iran is claiming that the attack was in retaliation for Israel’s recent bombing attack, which killed several senior Hamas officials including General Mohammad Reza Zahedi who reputedly played a significant role in the planning and execution of the October 7 terror attacks. Of course, that is a specious argument as that bombing was, itself, in retaliation for those attacks. Afterwards, Iran warned Israel against any “reckless behavior” in retaliation vowing it would engender a much more robust response. Regardless, Iran has left itself open to a significant retaliatory attack. Israel would have a plethora of rich targets to choose from including Iran’s oil refineries and nuclear bomb facilities.

Following the attack Israel’s war cabinet met immediately to discuss how to respond. Ominously, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured that Israel had been prepared for such an attack and vowed it would “respond accordingly.” War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz asserted that Israel “would take the actions [against Iran] that it deems appropriate [and] exact the price from Iran in the fashion and timing that is right for us.” It’s safe to assume that Israel will brook no interference from the US, the UN, or anyone else.

Israel has few friends in the world, and it will need the unwavering support of the US to survive this war. In view of the current lukewarm relationship between Israel and the US it is appropriate to wonder how strongly the US will support Israel. In my opinion, such concern is warranted. True, President Biden has assured that the US’s support for Israel is “ironclad.” But wait, isn’t that the same Joe Biden who abandoned hundreds of Americans and Afghanis who had supported us for years at great personal risk to an uncertain fate due to his ill-advised and ill-timed withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan? Isn’t that the same Joe Biden who has been assuring us for three plus years that the southern border is secure when anyone with two eyes can see evidence daily that it is not? Isn’t that the same Joe Biden that has been assuring us that inflation is under control when a quick trip to the grocery store or the gas station tells you it is not? Isn’t that the same Joe Biden who brags about his modest working-class roots in Scranton but yet has managed to accumulate a published net worth in excess of $10 million, excluding any surreptitious payments from foreign governments for access and favors, even though he has never held a job outside of government service? Of course it is. Biden is well known for saying one thing and doing another. Furthermore, Biden’s recent lukewarm, wishy-washy, often contentious attitude toward Israel would suggest his support for Israel will be far from “ironclad.”

Meanwhile, in other developments:

  1. In various US cities “activists” cheered and celebrated after learning that Iran had launched the attack on Israel.
  2. Despite Iran’s claim that the attack was a “retaliation” the IDF views it as a desire to “escalate” the ongoing conflict.
  3. Various media outlets in the US and elsewhere published scathing criticisms of Biden’s “timid” policy toward Iran and mocked his ineffectual “don’t” admonitions to Iran.
  4. Campaigning in PA former President Trump attributed Iran’s attack to the US having shown “great weakness,” and it “should not have happened” and “wouldn’t have [if he were president]”. Many would agree.
  5. In the US and elsewhere groups of “activists “have been taking to the streets disrupting traffic brandishing flags of Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah while burning the American flag and chanting death to America, death to Israel, and death to Jews. More on this later.
  6. Some commentators predicted that oil prices would “surge,” the extent of which would depend on how long and how extensive the fighting turns out to be.
  7. Appearing on Sunday Morning Futures John Ratcliffe, former Director of National Intelligence, delineated an extensive list of Biden’s “blunders” with respect to relations with Iran and opined that the US’s “fractured” relationship with Israel emboldened Iran to launch its attack. Many other commentators have expressed similar thoughts.
  8. Israel has augmented its forces in southern Gaza, which many believe is an indication it will attack Rafah. Located on the border with Egypt Rafah is Hamas’ last refuge in Gaza. In addition, it houses an estimated one million displaced Palestinian non-combatants. Biden has advised Israel “don’t,” but Israel is not inclined to heed his advice. According to today’s NY Post an attack is “imminent.” As always, Israel will do its utmost to minimize civilian casualties, and as always it will be severely criticized if there is but one.
  9. Appearing on CNN PA Senator John Fetterman, a Democrat, strongly disagreed with Biden’s statement that the US would not participate in any offensive operations against Iran. He added that he would never “capitulate to the fringe” of the Dem party, as Biden has.
  10. Appearing on Fox News Sunday John Kirby called on China to help “de-escalate” tensions in the ME. Good luck with that.

So, what can the US do? Biden convened a meeting of the G7 to examine diplomatic solutions. Fine as far as it goes, but I don’t have much faith that diplomacy, by itself, will resolve this situation. Additionally, the Wall Street Journal reported that he moved two destroyers to the region as a deterrent.

Short of war, which no one wants, the best course of action would be to reinstitute sanctions. Put together a consortium of nations. Strangle Iran financially. Freeze the $10 billion of its money that Biden has unfrozen. Convince other countries to cease importing Iran’s oil. We could even resume domestic drilling (not likely). Fighting wars takes money, lots of it. If Iran doesn’t have money, it can’t finance war or even terror activities. Passing an aid package would be a good idea, but so far Congress has been unable to do so. Typically, each party is blaming the other for that.

Conclusion

In his foreign policy regarding Israel Biden has continually tried to walk a tightrope worthy of the Flying Wallendas’ circus act. He is trying to please both Jewish voters and the far-left radicals in his party. So far, he has pleased neither. With typical lack of clarity and decisiveness, which has characterized his entire foreign policy, Biden recently made two contradictory statements regarding support for Israel. On the one hand, he reaffirmed the US’s “ironclad commitment” to Israel, but then as reported by CNN he also informed Israel that the US would not participate in any “offensive” actions against Iran. Huh?

As the expression goes, “actions speak louder than words.” As I said above, Biden consistently says one thing then does another. His mendacity knows no bounds. He is willing to sell out Israel, a staunch and reliable ally and the only one in the ME, in order to win an election. According to the polls his support among Blacks and Hispanics has been sharply declining, and in my view, he is kowtowing to the far left because he is terrified he will lose their support as well and hence the election.

These people he is courting are despicable. They are antisemitic and anti-American. Many of them are not even citizens. They are here on work visas or college visas or perhaps illegally. They are guests in the US and have no right to chant “death to America.” In my opinion they should all be deported. If Biden really truly intends to support Israel, he needs to communicate that to Iran clearly, decisively and definitively and above all act like it. I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for that.

by Tags: , , , , , , , Leave a comment

TELLING IT LIKE IT IS

Yesterday, Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu gave a speech before a joint session of Congress about the growing crisis in the Middle East…. and, what do you know, contrary to what some critics had predicted, the world didn’t end! I woke up today, and found that the earth is still spinning on its axis; the sun is still in the sky.

My friends, I am not writing this blog to debate the merits and demerits of Mr. Netanyahu’s addressing Congress without President Obama’s permission. People have their opinions on it, and that’s that. Whether you agree or disagree with what he said or his right to speak in the first place is not the important issue, and to focus on it obscures the much broader and much more serious point, which, plainly and simply is IRAN CANNOT BE ALLOWED TO DEVELOP NUCLEAR CAPABILITY.

Common sense and past experience tell me that a nuclear-capable Iran cannot be good for the Middle East, for Israel or for the US. This is a country whose leadership continually lies, cheats and obfuscates. They have been fomenting terrorism directed toward the US. They have vowed to wipe Israel which, last time I checked, is our only dependable ally in the region, off the face of the earth. The leadership is unstable and dangerous. Give me a scenario in which it would be acceptable for Iran to have nuclear capability. There isn’t one.

To paraphrase Secretary of State John Kerry, this is the 21st century, not the 19th. We cannot rely on two vast oceans insulating us from the rest of the world. What happens in the Middle East or elsewhere affects us as well. It affects us militarily, economically, politically and socially.

Even worse, the agreement currently under discussion, the one we are hoping Iran will accept, is a bad deal for the US. As I understand it, (1) Iran would retain a sizeable portion of its nuclear arsenal, and (2) there would a “sunset” provision by which after ten years any restrictions would expire. Talk about “kicking the can down the road!” How does that protect us? How is that acceptable? Furthermore, does anyone believe that Iran will live up to its end of the deal in the first place? If we insist in negotiating a deal at least make it a good deal. Negotiating 101 says negotiate from strength. Don’t be afraid to walk away from a bad deal. Iran needs a deal as much as we do, particularly if they know we are willing to re-impose sanctions. Effective sanctions might even bring down the current regime. The mullahs are cognizant of this, and, therefore, if we push them they may be more flexible than we think.

It does not take a geopolitical genius to figure out that Israel will not stand by and watch Iran develop nuclear capability. It has no choice. It simply cannot afford to do so. At some point it would feel compelled to take pre-emptive military action. Many Israelis feel that their very continued viability as a nation depends on preventing Iran from achieving nuclear capability, and they will do whatever is necessary to prevent it. Such action would destabilize the region further, and a destabilized Middle East could easily spill over to the rest of the world politically, militarily and economically.

CONCLUSION

I view the current situation with Iran as an example of that old adage “an of ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” Simply put, our government should have dealt with this situation years ago when it was a much smaller and more manageable problem. If you have a small fire in your kitchen, put it out immediately. Don’t ignore it until it becomes a conflagration. Now that, by most accounts, Iran is on the very threshold of becoming a nuclear power what was a small, manageable problem has become a huge problem with no easy solutions.

Our choices are limited. No one is advocating boots on the ground, and even if we wanted to bomb the nuclear facilities, they are well disseminated and buried deeply underground. The way I see it, the best approach would be to re-impose economic sanctions. They were working before. Their effectiveness was what brought Iran to the negotiating table in the first place. Now, as a result of the precipitous decline in the price of oil worldwide, Iran’s economy is in dire straits, and the sanctions should be even more effective. Don’t wait for the talks to breakdown months from now when it might be too late. Iran has been stalling us while they work feverishly toward their objective. Do it now! Then, continue to negotiate, but from strength.

by Tags: 1 Comment