Tag: politics

TRUMP HITS THE GROUND RUNNING

As we all know, on January 20, 2025 President-elect Donald Trump will be riding into office on a humungous red wave. He didn’t just win the 2024 election in a squeaker. He won it in a landslide. He garnered 312 electoral votes; he won the popular vote with over 74 million votes, the first time a Republican has done so since 2004; he won all seven swing states; his Party gained control of the House with a projected 222 seats; and it held its majority in the Senate. All in all, the voters have given him a huge mandate to enact his policies.

To his credit, Trump has not been wasting any time. He has been moving with alacrity to assemble his team.

As I write this the key appointments are as follows:

Secretary of State – Marco Rubio; Secretary of Defense – Peter Hegseth; Head of Homeland Security – Kristi Noehm; Department of Government Efficiency (New) – Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy; Ambassador to Israel – Mike Huckabee; National Security Advisor – Mike Waltz; Head of the CIA – John Radcliffe; Border Czar – Thomas Homan.

Some of these will require Senate approval, but I don’t anticipate any problems. Each of these persons share two commonalities: (1) they are very capable; and (2) they share Trump’s vision for America.

For example, Homan is a former head of ICE and has some 30 years’ experience as a policeman and in border enforcement. He has vowed to institute deportations of illegals starting with criminals, cartel members, gang members, and suspected terrorists. He will use the full powers of the federal government to compel Sanctuary Jurisdictions to obey the law. He told Fox News ICE would conduct “well-targeted, planned operation[s].”

Hegseth has a most impressive background. He is currently a major in the Army National Guard. He has degrees from Harvard and Princeton. He has served tours in both Afghanistan and Iraq. He is a strong proponent of “America First,” and of replacing “wokeism” with meritocracy in the military.

Trump hasn’t been sworn in yet and some of our enemies have signaled a change in attitude in anticipation. As reported in the NY Post, Qatar has expelled Hamas leaders whom it had been sheltering; the Taliban issued a statement that it is “hoping for a new chapter” in its relationship with the US; Russia is ready for a “dialogue;” Hamas is calling for an “immediate end” to its war with Israel; and the latest caravan of illegals has turned back. These developments, if true, are most encouraging.

CONCLUSION

The election results were very clear. Americans want massive changes in their lives, and they trust Trump to provide them. Everyone, our friends, our enemies, the illegal migrants, the wokers, everyone, has gotten the message. At the present time Trump has a rare opportunity to act with near impunity. He must “strike while the iron is hot.” History tells us this opportunity will not last long.

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THE BLAME GAME

And so, it begins. That didn’t take long. Just a few days after the election and the Dem Party and its supporters have already begun to point fingers. The blame game is in full swing. They’re all stunned by Trump’s resounding victory. They wonder, how could this have happened? How could so many people have voted for the “fascist,” “racist,” “misogynistic,” “Hitler-reincarnated” Trump?

Incredibly, they have no idea. It’s Harris’ fault; no, it’s Biden’s fault; no, it’s the Party power brokers’ (PBs”) who wield the real power behind the scenes fault; no, it’s the donors; no, it’s the Obamas; no, it’s the Clintons; no, it’s the media. Well, in my view, if they’re looking to ascribe blame, they should all look in the mirror. They’re all right and they’re all wrong.

The last few days of listening to Dems supporters’ meltdowns have actually been entertaining. For example:

  1. CNN anchor Jake Tapper requested that a staffer show him a graph of the states in which Harris had outperformed Biden by in excess of three percent. The staffer showed him a blank gray map.
  2. The View‘s co-host Sunny Hostin simplistically blamed “uneducated white women” for Harris’ defeat.
  3. NYS Governor Kathy Hochul and Trump prosecutor Leticia James, rather than focusing on cooperating with Trump to resolve the state’s copious serious problems, vowed to pursue “potential federal legal threats to reproductive freedom, gun safety laws, and other key issues.” Huh?
  4. NBC’s “Morning Joe” concluded that Harris’ defeat was due to “misogyny and racism from minority voters.”
  5. Late night comedians Seth Meyers, Jimmy Kimmel, Jimmy Fallon, and Stephen Colbert, and I use the term loosely, who host shows that few people bother to watch anymore, acted like their best friend had died.
  6. AOC blamed “sexism” and warned “scary time[s]” were ahead under a Trump presidency.
  7. Al Sharpton dismissed and denigrated male blacks who had voted for Trump as “racists.” Huh?
  8. Writing in the NY Times columnist Peter Baker opined that America is “not ready for a woman in the Oval Office.”
  9. “Woke” colleges, such as Harvard and Columbia, cancelled classes or established “coping rooms” for distraught students. Puhlease!
  10. Several prominent “wokers” have speculated that Trump will retaliate against them personally. News flash. He has no intention of wasting his time on you. For one thing, you’re not that important. In addition, he has much more pressing matters to address, and his stated intent is to unite, not retaliate, a concept that is foreign to you.

As I said, these people are way out of touch and in denial. They believed their own propaganda.

In my opinion:

  1. The PBs stuck with Biden for too long. It was an open secret that his cognitive abilities were in a steep decline. The evidence was right there for all to see if they just cared to look. His family knew it; his staff knew it; the media knew it; the donors knew it; and eventually, most significantly, the electorate knew it (the ones who were objective, anyway). His decline had become noticeable in 2021, but the specter of COVID gave him a plausible reason to run his campaign largely hidden from public view. Rather than do its job the media aided and abetted him. No outsiders knew “the emperor had no clothes.” For those who know their history it was reminiscent of FDR and his staff’s hiding his polio affliction from the public. They should have realized that his decline would become known at some point, but they arrogantly believed they could hide it and if it were to come out, they could manage it.
  2. Biden’s disastrous debate with Trump was the watershed event. It caused a massive panic among Dems. Biden was exposed before the whole world as a fumbling, bumbling, mumbling, stumbling shell of his former self. Suddenly, just three months before the election, the secret was out. He was no longer a viable candidate. He needed to be replaced both as a candidate and as president or else Trump would surely win.
  3. The Dem Party PBs (who had really been running the country) were in a real quandary. Stubbornly, Biden refused to step aside. His attitude was he had swept the primaries fair and square garnering over 14 million votes. At the convention the delegates had made him the unanimous choice as Dem nominee. He had beaten Trump once; he could and would do it again.
  4. According to that pesky document known as the Constitution the only way to replace him legally would have been to declare him unfit for office under the 25th Amendment. But that would have meant a long, drawn-out public process that would have severely damaged the campaign. That was a nonstarter. They needed a new candidate, and fast.
  5. Finally, the PBs decided to force Biden to withdraw and replace him with Kamala Harris. It was nothing less than a coup perpetrated by, among others Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck (the “Chameleon”) Schumer, key donors, and probably other undisclosed PBs. In their view, it had to be Harris. As VP she was already in place in the campaign, and she was only person who could access the hundreds of millions of dollars of accumulated campaign funds.
  6. It didn’t matter that as a presidential candidate in 2020 she had been so bad that she had had to drop out before the Iowa caucuses. It didn’t matter that she had not won a single electorate vote. It didn’t matter that she had only been chosen as VP because Biden needed a running mate who was a black woman. It didn’t matter that she had been such an incompetent VP that there had been discussions to replace her on the 2024 ticket. It didn’t matter that she was the most far-left senator, a genuine died-in-the-wool Socialist, even further to the left than admitted Socialist Bernie Sanders. The PBs forced Biden out and shoe-horned her in. It was a coup, plainly and simply.
  7. The hope was to hide her real views from the electorate and rely on the mainstream media and the perceived widespread hatred of Donald Trump to carry the day.
  8. To make a long story short, it worked for a while, until it didn’t. Harris was a terrible candidate, and she ran a terrible campaign. She couldn’t hide from her 20 years of far-left policies; she couldn’t separate herself from Biden’s disastrous four-year record; and she was on the wrong side of every issue that mattered to the electorate – the economy, the border, crime, and security, to name a few. In the end her only viable strategy was to gaslight voters by avoiding interviews. She continually flip-flopped her policies to the extent that voters didn’t know her true beliefs, and they didn’t trust her.
  9. It didn’t help matters that she chose another Socialist, MN Governor Tim Walz, as her running mate over PA Governor Josh Shapiro. The pick was not viewed as a wise strategic choice since PA was a swing state that Shapiro, as VP nominee, would likely have carried for the ticket. It was widely viewed as a sop to the far left, antisemitic, pro-Muslim wing of the Party. With his “baggage” and buffoonery Walz turned out to be a negative factor. He even lost his home county to Trump.
  10. Perhaps, the happiest Dem today is Biden. Reports are that he is “giddy” over Harris’ decisive loss and views it as vindication and revenge for his forced removal. It doesn’t matter that he likely would also have lost, and perhaps worse.
  11. The primary problem for the Dems is that were out of touch with the voters. Their arrogance was boundless. They were living in their own insulated world. They were focused on abortion, pronouns, DEI, and name calling while voters cared about the economy, immigration and crime. They should have taken the time to mingle with the people. Go to malls. Take to the streets. Go to diners. Go to small businesses. Converse with ordinary people. Ask them questions. Listen to their answers.
  12. Voters no longer trusted the media; they no longer listened to elite politicians, entertainers or sports heroes who thought they knew what was good for them and did not hesitate to tell them so. They realized that these people knew less about their daily life struggles than they did. Moreover, they didn’t care about them. They arrogantly characterized regular people as “deplorables,” “racists,” “misogynists,” or “garbage.” They lived in a different world that was insulated from the hard life issues everyone else faced. They didn’t have to worry about putting food on the table, gassing up the car, paying the rent, or saving for their kids’ education, etc. They lived in gated communities with private security. They traveled in private jets. When was the last time Beyonce or George Clooney went to a grocery store or gassed up their car? Beyond their ignorance and indifference, they lectured the ordinary folks as to how they should live and what was good for them.
  13. Trump and the GOP listened and learned. For example, he perceived that all working and middle voters, whites, black and Latinos all had the same concerns and fears, which have been described numerous times by me and many others. He intuited that Hispanic citizens were just as opposed to illegal immigration as the rest of us. Rather than seeking to divide us as the Dems were, he sought to unite us. His points resonated, and we saw the result.

That was why the Dems lost and lost so thoroughly.

The first step to correcting a problem is to acknowledge it. As I write this, the Dems are still in denial.

CONCLUSION

Trump did not win a squeaker. It was a massive landslide. He won over 300 electoral votes; he won the popular vote by some five points, he carried the Senate; he likely will carry the House; he made historic inroads into traditionally Dem voting blocs such as blacks, Hispanics, Jews, and young people. In essence he expanded the base of the GOP. He forged a coalition of working class, middle class and minority voters that could last for a long time. It is comparable to what FDR accomplished for the Dems in 1932.

This dramatic shift to the right was confirmed by commentator Patrick Ruffini who characterized it as “unprecedented in the modern era.” Remarkably, Trump accomplished all this despite being subjected to eight years of non-stop misinformation, outright lies, harassments and impeachments, not to mention two assassination attempts.

As I said, today, the Dem Party is in disarray and disbelief. It has been hijacked by the small but vocal far left, woke, antisemitic, Pro Muslim, wing of the Party. Where are the moderate Dems? They need to speak up. The moderates in the Party need to jettison that radical element and return to the mainstream or else it will lose its relevance as a major party.

As for the GOP, it now faces the difficult challenge of governing. The electorate will expect it to solve all the problems that they have inherited from the Biden Administration, and, as we all know, there is a long list. Otherwise, it will lose credibility, and there may very well be a reckoning in 2026 and 2028.

It will not be easy. Once the Dems get over their shock and get organized, they and their media allies will resist. The lies, harassments and half-truths will return. Already, there have been rumblings. Trump and the GOP have to act quickly and decisively.

Note: in that vein, today he announced that Susie Wiles, the brilliant architect of his campaign, will be his chief of staff. Wiles, the daughter of former NFL player and announcer Pat Summerall, is the first female to hold that powerful and prestigious position. It appears to be an inspired choice. Kudos to her.

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TRUMP WINS. GOP FLIPS SENATE. HOUSE TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

The media is shocked. The elites are stunned. They were so out of touch with the American people. They called Trump and his supporters all sorts of derogatory names – Hitler, Nazis, racist, Islamophobic, deplorables, garbage, etc. They actually believed their own propaganda. Talk is cheap; play the game, and the voters did just that.

Even the pollsters did not see it coming. They called the race “too close to call.” Either their polls failed to capture the mood of the people, or they were too afraid to make a prediction. As you know some of us were not so reticent. In my last blog I went out on a limb and predicted a Trump victory. Many others of you commented that you agreed.

Trump even won the popular vote, possibly by a goodly margin. The GOP rarely achieves that. He came close in Virginia. He outperformed expectations in various other states. Harris’ gaslighting did not fool us. She consistently ran behind Biden’s 2020 numbers everywhere.

As I write this, the GOP has control of the Senate with 51 seats, and they are leading in a few others that have not been called. It is too early to “call” many House races officially, but the expectation is that they will retain their majority for a clean sweep.

Trump has a clear mandate to enact his policies, the policies that we, the people want. The Dems will not be able to distract us with false impeachments. The Senate will confirm his Supreme Court choices.

Conclusion

The people have spoken. Now it’s time to get to work.

Finish the Wall. Close the border.

Drill baby drill. Deal with Iran.

It’s time to take out the garbage. It’s time to drain the swamp.

Komrade Kamala – YOU’RE FIRED!

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2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PREDICTION

This will be my final 2024 presidential election blog before the big day. (I can hear the wild cheering in the background.) If you are like me, regardless of your preference, you will be happy to get all the excessive and extraneous chatter over with and get on with the real voting. Talk is cheap; play the game.

Most prognosticators predict that this will be a very close election with the winner too close to call. That may be true, but I submit it is a coward’s way out. I will show no fear and make a prediction. Feel free to disagree. I would welcome your comments.

My analysis is as follows:

  1. According to most of the latest polls Harris has a slight lead in the national vote, which the Dems almost always win. That is informative but largely irrelevant, although it is worth noting that her lead is much slimmer than that which is normal. It is the electoral votes of the individual states that count. Many people think that is unfair, but there are various historical reasons for that, which I have discussed in previous blogs. In any event, it is what it is.
  2. There are seven “swing” states that will decide the election. Excluding those states, I have calculated that Harris is leading and likely to win in states totaling 241 electoral votes. Trump is leading and likely to win in states totaling 204 electoral votes.
  3. The aforementioned swing states are MI (15 electoral votes), NC (16), AZ (11), GA (16), PA (19), NV (6), and WI (10). Those states represent 93 EVs. All the latest polls report Trump and Harris to be tied or within the margin of error in all of them, except for AZ where Trump has a four-point lead.
  4. Because of those poll results prognosticators are loath to make a definitive prediction. They are hedging their bets.
  5. I, however, have no such reservations.
  6. I will go out on the proverbial limb and predict that Trump will win, and the EV total may not even be close. Why? See below.
  7. I have doubts as to the accuracy of the polls. In the last two elections they have significantly underestimated Trump’s support. In 2016 he was several points behind Clinton, and he won in what was considered a big upset. In 2020 he lost to Biden by a “hair,” but he still outperformed the polls.
  8. Trump has drawn tremendously large, enthusiastic crowds wherever he has gone. For example, at MSG in deep blue NYC he drew 20,000 inside the arena and untold thousands more outside. In my view this is irreconcilable with the polls, and it is the main reason why I doubt their accuracy.
  9. According to multiple polls Trump is drawing significantly more support among blacks and Hispanics, which traditionally have been strong Dem supporters. This is another harbinger that I don’t believe is being reflected fully in the polls.
  10. Normally, the Dems gain a sizeable advantage in early voting. That forces the GOP to play “catch-up” on ED. Often, due to the vagaries of weather or other unforeseen circumstances, that gap has been too much to overcome. During this election cycle the GOP has emphasized EV, and the results have been very encouraging.
  11. In NC I think the impact of hurricane Helene will be very significant, particularly in the western part of the state. Thousands of people lost everything, and the Feds’ response and support was terrible. In addition, this event is very recent and should be fresh in their minds.
  12. Regarding PA I don’t think many people will be deceived by Harris’ inconsistent position on fracking, which is crucial to the state’s economy. They realize she is gaslighting them. In addition, Dem Senator John Fetterman, who is monitoring the campaign in PA very closely, has characterized the level of Trump’s support on the “stump” as “astonishing.” He also thinks that Elon Musk’s support will be a considerable plus for Trump.
  13. As always, turnout will be the key, but based on the foregoing analysis I predict that Trump will carry AZ, G, NV, NC and PA. Those 68 EVs would bring his EV total to 272 and a narrow victory.
  14. I am less certain about MI and WI, but he could carry them as well, which would bring his EV total to 297, which would constitute more of a mandate.
  15. Let’s not overlook the Senate. The GOP needs to flip a net of two seats to gain control. According to CNN there are several Dem seats that are vulnerable. With Joe Manchin retiring WVA is a “lock.” Montana and Ohio are strong possibilities. Other possibilities are MI and WI, particularly if Trump were to win those states.
  16. Individual House races are unpredictable, but in my view the GOP should retain control.

Conclusion

If I am right the GOP should have sufficient control to enable Trump to enact his policies. Furthermore, the government would not have to deal with phony impeachments or other distractions.

If I am right, it will be time to TAKE OUT THE TRASH AND DRAIN THE SWAMP!

One disquieting thought. As we all know, the country is very divided. We can debate whose fault that is, but the fact remains that supporters of the losing candidate will likely contest the results. The closer the election, the stronger the likelihood of that occurring. That would be their right, but let’s hope any such protests are peaceful.

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TRUMP AT MSG. SUPPORTERS 20,000, NAZIS 0

As you all know, this past Sunday Donald Trump held a massive rally at Madison Square Garden in NYC. The concise headline in the NY Post summed it up perfectly, “A MEGA MAGA AT THE MECCA.”

Trump boldly decided to stage a massive rally in arguably the bluest of blue venues, NYC. This is the same NYC that virtually always votes for Dem candidates from the president on down to the City Council and for every office in between. This is the same NYC that hosted his Stalin-era “show trial” a few months ago on “trumped up” charges that resulted in a conviction, which will certainly be overturned by the higher courts.

According to multiple media reports the Garden was filled to capacity; plus, there were thousands more people outside who could not get in. Among the attendees were my grandson, Mason, and three of his friends. Despite the inane and execrable statements that have been spewed out by many Dems and their allies in the media regarding those who attended the rally I can assure you that my grandson and his friends are not Nazis. They, like all the other attendees are people who are fed up with the state of the country and believe that Trump will fix it.

According to Mason there was a wide cross-section of people of all ages, genders, and races with nary a Nazi in sight. Other eyewitness accounts published in multiple media outlets have confirmed this. For example, Lily Zuckerman, reported in the Post seeing several Jews wearing Stars of David and traditional Orthodox garb such as kippahs and black hats. She added that people were generally upbeat, vibrant, joyous, and friendly. More gaslighting by desperate and duplicitous Dems exposed.

Mason and his friends got up at 6:00 am, arrived at around 7:40, and reported there were already a goodly number of people there. The Post reported that some 2,000 people had been camping out for as long as 48 hours. The crowd was peaceful and in festive spirits. They waited outside several hours before the doors were opened, but they were able to get good seats inside. Much of the overflow that could not get in watched the proceedings from inside nearby restaurants and bars, but thousands more remained outside, content just to be part of the event. Once the proceedings commenced the crowds were raucous and enthusiastic but peaceful. The Post compared the atmosphere and enthusiasm to that seen for rock stars. Many fans had driven hundreds of miles and camped out for days to be a part of it.

As I said, there was a wide cross-section of people in attendance. But do you know what was missing from the rally? Nazis. There was nary a Nazi flag or swastika in sight. Speaker Hulk Hogan, in his blunt, bombastic manner, bellowed “I don’t see no stinking Nazis in here!” Do you know what else was missing? Protesters. One secret service agent was quoted as estimating the number of protesters at about 150, hardly a blip.

In a demonstration of unity, the program included speeches by a wide cross-section of supporters including allies such as Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, former opponents such as Vivek Ramaswamy and RFK, non-political luminaries such as Rudy Giuliani, Hulk Hogan and Tucker Carlson, former Dems such as Tulsi Gabbard, VP nominee J. D. Vance, and the former First Lady, Melania (not a Nazi among them either). Indeed, in what world would one find Orthodox Jews and pro-Israel banners at a Nazi rally? Many of the speakers specifically defended Israel and criticized BH for the manner in which they have treated it.

The massive and enthusiastic crowd counteracted the claim by the Dems that he is unfit for office. In addition, columnist Piers Morgan characterized Clinton’s comparison of this rally to the 1939 pro-Nazi rally as “despicable” but consistent with the Dems “incessant and hysterical demonization” of Trump. I couldn’t have said it better myself.

Trump led off his speech with the standard question, “are you better off today than you were four years ago?” Of course, that got the crowd fired up, because for 90% of us the answer is a resounding NO! Then, he covered the usual topics, such as the economy, the border, mass deportation of illegal migrants, reinstituting drilling for oil and gas, no tax on social security, tips, and overtime, and fighting crime. He introduced a new tax initiative – a tax cut for caregivers who look after family members. He introduced a new tag line, which I think will resonate. “Kamala broke it, but I will fix it.”

The Dems have gotten so desperate it’s pathetic. In every previous election in my lifetime each candidate had bona fide issues that he could run on. Voters might not agree, but at least there was something to discuss. This is the first election I can recall in which the incumbent, Harris, has had nothing bona fide to run on. She has been VP for four years and she has no accomplishments to point to. None.

The economy is as bad as at any time since the Great Depression. The border is wide open. Illegal immigrants are pouring in at will. (Presently, we actually have no real southern border.) Crime is skyrocketing and becoming more random, especially in the cities run by Dems. There are no longer any “safe, crime-free” areas. Due to “no-bail” laws criminals are often released from jail before the paperwork for their arrest has been completed. Moreover, they are often not even getting prosecuted due to “woke” DAs. Businesses and people have been abandoning the crime-ridden cities for more law-abiding locales. Those who have remained are afraid to go out. There are wars in the ME and in Ukraine, which are threatening to metastasize into WWIII. We have abandoned our allies and placated our enemies.

Even worse, the country is as divided as I have ever seen it. GOP vs Dem, progressive vs. conservative. Antisemitism is as overt as I have ever seen it. The atmosphere is almost as bad as it was under the Nazis in pre-WWII Germany. Colleges are being controlled by pro-terrorist, anti-Jewish administrators and agitators. Many Jews are afraid to identify themselves as Jewish. All of the foregoing has developed and spun out of control in the last four years under Biden-Harris. They have been unable or unwilling to deal with it.

So, I repeat, Harris has nothing positive to claim in her four years. So, what have she and her cohorts done? They have manufactured issues, and they have lied. “Trump” is a Nazi.” “Trump is Hitler.” “Trump’s rally at MSG is reminiscent of the infamous Nazi rally of 1939.” “Trump should be in prison.” “Trump is a threat to democracy.” “Trump wants to be a dictator. He will never leave office.” “Trump wants to outlaw abortions.”

Of course, none of these is even remotely true. The Dems know they are losing, possibly badly. They are desperate. They are flailing, trying to foment hate, division, fear and dissension. Personally, I find some of above characterizations as very offensive, particularly the references to Hitler and Nazis. Perhaps, Harris and her campaign are unaware of the Holocaust in which Hitler and the Nazis murdered six million Jews and millions of others. Every Jew, indeed, every Trump supporter, should be outraged.

The fact of the matter is that if anyone is antisemitic it is Harris and her cohorts given their tepid support of Israel and laissez faire attitude toward the bias being visited upon Jews at the present time. I have discussed this in detail in previous blogs.

If anyone is a threat to democracy it is these same power-hungry phonies. It was they who carried out a four-year deception against the American people by hiding Biden’s deteriorating cognition, thus allowing a president to remain in office who was unfit to serve. Who was actually running the country? We don’t know. Certainly not Biden. They should have invoked the 25th amendment, which had been enacted for this very situation. By not doing so they violated the Constitution in order to maintain their power and control.

I have noticed that whatever outlandish accusation the Dems make against Trump they themselves are guilty of it. For example, they say he is antisemitic and a threat to democracy, but those are traits that they have exhibited. It was they who threw a duly elected president and duly nominated presidential candidate “under the bus.” It was they who cast aside a candidate who had received 18 million primary votes in favor of one who had not received any. It was they who blocked a bona fide candidate, RFK, Jr., from pursuing his candidacy, and sought to keep Trump off the ballot in various states for no bona-fide reason. It was they who sought to imprison Trump on “trumped up” charges because they realized they couldn’t beat him fair and square. It is they who have fomented divisiveness and hatred even though they know it is likely to encourage some mentally and emotionally unbalanced person to try to assassinate Trump. It is they who have not provided Trump with sufficient Secret Service protection despite two previous assassination attempts and credible threats of others. And it is they who are trying any means, nefarious and otherwise, to hold on to power.

Conclusion

The polls still indicate that the race is very, very tight, both nationally and in the battleground states, but there are signs that that may not be the case. For whatever reason in every election the polls have underestimated Trump’s support. In both 2016 and 2020 Trump outperformed the polls in the actual election. Those polls reported him to be behind both Clinton and Biden. Yet, he won in 2016 and lost by a hair in 2020. Also, he is ahead of where he was on this date in those election cycles.

Additionally, one cannot ignore the large and enthusiastic crowds he attracts wherever he campaigns, even in a deep blue venue such as NYC. Harris’ crowds have not come close.

Finally, one can sense the desperation in the Harris campaign. For example, she agreed to an interview on Fox News where she knew she would not be able to get away with her normal evasive, non-answer answers. This was way out of her comfort zone, and it showed.

Finally, the Harris campaign has called out the “big dogs,” the Obamas and the Clintons, to help. They, too, know she is losing.

All that said, we all know that the only poll that counts is the one on ED. We’ve learned that lesson many times, most recently in the 1948 and 2016 elections.

So, GOPers, don’t be complacent. Your vote counts. The GOP needs to expand its majority in the House and flip the Senate. Trump needs a clear and decisive mandate in order to govern effectively.

VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!

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THIS MONTH IN HISTORY – OCTOBER

October has had more than its share of significant historical events. Please see below:

10/1/1908 – The first Model T cars, designed by Henry Ford, went on sale.
10/1/1938 – German troops occupied the Sudetenland section of Czechoslovakia.
10/1/1949 – The Peoples’ Republic of China was founded with Mao Zedong as its leader.
10/1/1979 – The US formally turned the Canal Zone over to Panama.
10/2/1967 – Thurgood Marshall was sworn in as the first African American associate justice of the Supreme Court.
10/3/1863 – President Abraham Lincoln promulgated a proclamation designating the last Thursday in November as Thanksgiving (later changed to the fourth Thursday).
10/3/1929 – The Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes was officially renamed Yugoslavia.
10/3/1932 – Iraq gained its independence from Great Britain.
10/3/1974 – Hall of Famer Frank Robinson became the first African American to manage a major league baseball club (the Cleveland Indians). Later, he also became the first AA manager to be fired.
10/3/1990 – East and West Germany were united as the Federal Republic of Germany ending 45 years of separation.
10/4/1830 – Belgium gained its independence from the Netherlands.
10/4/1957 – Russia ushered in the Space Age as it launched the first satellite, named Sputnik.
10/5/1908 – Bulgaria proclaimed its independence from the Ottoman Empire.
10/6/1927 – “The Jazz Singer,” the first “talkie,” opened in NYC.
10/6/1928 – Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek became the president of the Republic of China.
10/6/1973 – The “Yom Kippur War” commenced as Egypt and Syria launched surprise attacks against Israel, which was busy celebrating the most sacred of Jewish holidays.
10/6/1981 – Egyptian President Anwar Sadat was assassinated.
10/7/1985 – Palestinian terrorists seized the cruise ship, “Achille Lauro,” and threatened to blow it up if their demands were not met. They infamously murdered an elderly wheelchair-bound passenger, Leon Klinghoffer, by pushing his wheelchair off the deck into the sea.

10/7/2023 – Hamas terrorists perpetrated the worst attack on Israeli civilians since the Holocaust murdering, raping and terrorizing thousands of innocent women, children and elderly people.

10/8/1871 – The Great Fire of Chicago destroyed much of the city. Legend has it that Mrs. O’Leary’s cow started it by kicking over a lantern in her barn.
10/8/1918 – Sergeant Alvin York, arguably the US’s greatest war hero, single-handedly took out a German machine-gun battalion, killing and capturing nearly 150 enemy soldiers. He was awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor and the French equivalent, the Croix de Guerre.
10/8/1998 – The House of Representatives voted to launch a formal impeachment inquiry of President Bill Clinton.
10/9/1962 – Uganda gained its independence from Great Britain.
10/10/1973 – Vice President Spiro Agnew resigned amid allegations of income tax evasion stemming from his tenure as Governor of Maryland.
10/11/1939 – Scientist Albert Einstein issued a warning to President FDR that Germany was seeking to develop an atomic weapon. His warning led the US to marshal its resources to develop its own atomic weapon (the Manhattan Project).
10/12/1492 – Christopher Columbus landed in present-day El Salvador, erroneously thinking he had found the elusive northwest passage to India.
10/12/1811 – Paraguay declared its independence from Spain.
10/12/1822 – Brazil declared its independence from Portugal.
10/13/1792 – George Washington laid the cornerstone of the White House.
10/13/1884 – Greenwich, England was established as the basic time zone from which all time is calculated.
10/14/1066 – The Normans defeated the English at the decisive Battle of Hastings, which resulted in the Normans’ conquest of England.
10/14/1912 – Former president Theodore Roosevelt was shot while campaigning for re-election, but he survived.
10/14/1947 – Test pilot Chuck Yeager became the first to break the sound barrier.
10/14/1964 – Martin Luther King became the youngest recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize.
10/15/1991 – Following several days of contentious hearings regarding allegations of sexual harassment against a former aide, Anita Hill, the Senate confirmed Clarence Thomas as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court.
10/16/1701 – Yale University was founded in Killingworth, CT as the Collegiate School of Connecticut.
10/16/1793 – French Queen Marie Antoinette, known for her extravagance and contempt for her subjects (“Let them eat cake.”), was beheaded.
10/16/1853 – The Crimean War (Russia, England and France vs. the Ottoman Empire and parts of present-day Italy) began.
10/16/1995 – Louis Farrakhan led the Million Man March on Washington.
10/17/1777 – The Colonial Army defeated the British at Saratoga in what many historians believe was the turning point of the Revolutionary War.
10/17-25/1944 – The US succeeded in decimating the Japanese Navy at the Battle of Leyte Gulf, which was the largest naval battle in history.
10/18/1945 – The Nuremberg War Crimes Trial commenced with indictments against 24 former Nazi leaders.
10/19/1781 – English General Cornwallis surrendered to the Colonial Army at Yorktown, VA. marking the end of the Revolutionary War.
10/19/1987 – This day was dubbed “Black Monday” on Wall Street as stocks plunged 508 points or 22.6%, the largest one-day decline ever.
10/20/1818 – The US and Great Britain agreed to establish the US-Canadian border at the 49th parallel. The 5,525-mile border is the longest in the world between any two countries.
10/20/1944 – General Douglas MacArthur, who upon fleeing the Philippines in 1942 to escape the Japanese Army boldly asserted “I shall return,” returned as promised.
10/20/1968 – Jacqueline Kennedy, widow of President John Kennedy, married Greek shipping tycoon Aristotle Onassis.
10/21/1805 – The British Navy defeated the combined naval forces of France and Spain at the Battle of Trafalgar, obviating the threat of their invasion of England.
10/21/1879 – Thomas Edison successfully tested an incandescent lamp.
10/21/1915 – AT&T transmitted the first successful transatlantic radio voice message (Virginia to Paris).
10/22/1962 – President Kennedy warned Americans of the existence of Russian missiles in Cuba. The so-called “Cuban Missile Crisis” was probably the biggest threat of nuclear war during the Cold War.
10/23/1942 – The British Army led by General Bernard Montgomery launched a major offensive against the German Afrika Corps, led by General Erwin Rommel, at El Alamein, Egypt. Montgomery’s victory marked a major turning point in WWII.
10/24/1931 – Notorious Chicago gangster, Al Capone, was sentenced 11 years in prison for income tax evasion.
10/24/1945 – The UN was founded.
10/25/1854 – 673 British cavalrymen took on a Russian force in the Battle of Balaclava. This famous Crimean War battle was immortalized in a poem by Alfred Lord Tennyson entitled “The Charge of the Light Brigade.”
10/26/1881 – In the infamous shoot-out at the OK Corral the Earp brothers and “Doc” Holliday defeated the Clanton Gang.
10/26/1825 – The Erie Canal, the first man-made waterway in America, opened for business.
10/27/1904 – The NYC subway system opened with a run from City Hall to West 145th Street as the first underground and underwater system in the world.
10/27/1978 – Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat shared the Nobel Peace Prize.
10/28/1636 – Harvard University, the oldest university in America, was founded in Cambridge, MA, funded by donations provided by John Harvard.
10/28/1846 – The ill-fated Donner Party departed Illinois for California.
10/28/1918 – The Republic of Czechoslovakia was founded by combining three provinces that were formerly part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire – Moravia, Slovakia, and Bohemia.
10/28/1919 – Prohibition commenced as Congress enacted the Volstead Act.
10/28/1962 – Russia agreed to halt the construction of offensive missile bases in Cuba and dismantle existing bases, thus ending the Cuban Missile Crisis.
10/29/1929 – The stock market “crashed” ushering in the Great Depression.
10/30/1938 – A radio broadcast of H. G. Wells’ “War of the Worlds” without commercial interruption caused widespread panic, as many people thought that Martians had actually invaded Earth.

10/31/41- The sculptures of four US presidents on Mt. Rushmore was completed. Can you name them? (See below).

10/31/50 – Earl Lloyd became the first AA to play in the NBA (Washington Capitols).

10/31/84 – Indian Prime Minister Indira Ghandhi was assassinated.

BIRTHDAYS – Mohandas (Mahatma) Gandhi – 10/2/1869; Rutherford B. Hayes (19th President) – 10/4/1822; Frederic Remington (artist)- 10/4/1861; Chester A. Arthur (21st President) – 10/5/1830; Robert Goddard (“Father of the Space Age”) – 10/5/1882; George Westinghouse (engineer and inventor) – 10/6/1846; John Lennon – 10/9/1940; Eleanor Roosevelt – 10/11/1884; Mary Ludwig (aka Molly Pitcher (Revolutionary War heroine of the Battle of Monmouth, NJ) – 10/13/1754; William Penn (founded the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, which bears his name) – 10/14/1644; Dwight (Ike) Eisenhower (WWII commanding general and 34th President) – 10/14/1890; Lido Anthony (Lee) Iacocca (auto industry executive) – 10/15/1924; Noah Webster (teacher and journalist who compiled the first dictionaries) – 10/16/1758; Oscar Wilde (Irish playwright and poet) – 10/16/1854; David Ben Gurion (“Father” of Israel) – 10/16/1888; Eugene O’Neill (playwright – “The Iceman Cometh”) – 10/16/1888; William O. Douglas (associate justice of the Supreme Court) – 10/16/1898; John Birks (Dizzy) Gillespie (jazz musician) – 10/21/1917; Pablo Picasso (artist) – 10/25/1881; Hillary Rodham Clinton – 10/26/1947; James Cook (English explorer) – 10/27/1728; Theodore Roosevelt (26th President) – 10/27/1858; Dr. Jonas Salk (polio vaccine) – 10/28/1914; Bill Gates (Microsoft) – 10/28/1955; John Adams (2nd President) – 10/30/1735; Emily Post (arbiter of etiquette) – 10/30/1872; Admiral Will (“Bull”) Halsey (WWII fleet commander) – 10/30/1882.

Quiz answer: George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln, and Theodore Roosevelt.

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JEWS FOR KAMALA

I have made this point many times during the 2024 presidential election campaign, but it bears repeating. Why in the world would any Jew who is thinking objectively and who cares about Israel and the welfare of American Jews, vote for Kamala Harris? For that matter, why would they vote for any Democrat? After all, Dem pols are supporting Harris, or at least they are reluctant to speak out in contradiction of her antipathy toward Jews. I don’t get it; it’s inane; it’s not logical.

Perhaps, it is due to habit and inertia. They’ve always voted Dem; their parents always voted Dem; so, they continue the practice without giving it serious thought or analysis. In any case the Dems have abandoned the Jews and Jewish causes. They have not been loyal to you, so you no longer owe them your loyalty. Jews need to have an open mind.

Another reason is some voters, although they agree with Trump’s policies, despise him intensely on a personal basis and refuse to vote for him under any circumstances. That is just ridiculous, inane and fatuous. If Trump were to lose the election he would, of course, be disappointed. But he would not be devastated. He would merely return to his previous life as a billionaire entrepreneur and entertainer. We, on the other hand, would be saddled with the same policies we are suffering under now. Therefore, anti-Trumpers would be “cutting off their noses to spite their face.

Perhaps, a brief review of Harris’ actions and non-actions since becoming the nominee would be helpful and appropriate.

  1. Among her staunchest supporters is the antisemitic far left wing of the Dem Party. It’s obvious that she is afraid of offending them. This includes “Squad” Congresswomen, such as AOC (NY), Ayanna Pressley (MA), Rashida Tlaib (MI), and Ilhan Omar (MN), among others. She knows she needs their support to win, and she will need their continuing support to govern. All have repeatedly expressed antisemitic and Anti-Israel attitudes. Furthermore, Tlaib and Omar are representatives of states that are Anti-Israel hotbeds. Harris needs those states’ electoral votes to win.
  2. Publicly, Harris (and Biden, for their policies and actions have been interchangeable) have stated that they support Israel, and it that it has the right to defend itself. (Thank you, Captain Obvious!) However, privately they have continually acted to restrict Israel’s response to the horrific October 7, 2013 sneak attacks. From the outset they have advocated “restraint” and demanded “precision” in its deployment of weaponry. It’s all right for the terrorists to attack indiscriminately, but the Israelis have to demonstrate “restraint” and “precision?” This is wholly unreasonable. What do “restraint” or “precision” even mean in this context? Also, tell me what other country in the history of the world when attacked has been urged to show “restraint?” The answer is “none.” Did the US show “restraint” after Pearl Harbor or 9/11? Of course not. But BH expected the Israelis to do so after October 7.
  3. BH threatened to withhold arms and support if Israel got too aggressive. In my view, the purpose of this was to placate their antisemitic far left wing and also Iran.
  4. BH and their minions objected to Netanyahu’s war strategy, so they tried to force him to resign or call for new elections. They trotted out political chameleon Chuck Schumer to give “the speech,” which I discussed in a previous blog. This type of outrageous interference in the internal workings of another sovereign government is not appropriate with respect to an ally, particularly one that is our only reliable one in the volatile and strategically crucial Middle East. Perhaps, BH need a lesson in geopolitics.
  5. BH insisted that a member of their administration sit in on Israel’s war cabinet meetings to suggest/approve strategies.
  6. BH continue to refuse to recognize that Iran is the root cause of the terrorism extant in the ME and take corrective action against it.
  7. BH have blamed a “significant deterioration” in the level of aid reaching the citizens of Gaza on Israel. They threatened to withhold aid if the Israelis did not allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza.
  8. Furthermore, they have long insisted that Israel not attack Rafah for “humanitarian reasons” even though there has been ample evidence that Hamas’ leadership was hiding there. Luckily, the IDF did not obey BH’s instructions. They attacked anyway. Douglas Murray, a columnist for the NY Post accompanied the IDF and filed an exclusive report describing the operation.
  9. Lo and behold, a few days ago, we learned that the 10/7 mastermind, Yahya Sinwar, had been hiding in that very area. He had set up luxury accommodations for his family and him deep within the labyrinth of tunnels under the city. In his report Murray described it as a “Rafah rat’s nest.” He reported “for the past 12 months [Sinwar] had [been] scurr[ying] like a rat through the tunnels he [had] spent years building.”
  10. In summary, he reported that the IDF found it to be well-stocked with food, medicine, and other provisions, including millions of dollars of cash that had been provided by the UN and had been earmarked for the Gazans. So, Sinwar and his family were living in relative luxury while the Gazans he and his men were supposedly “protecting” were starving. And all the while, the world had been criticizing Israel for keeping aid from the Gazans. How did he obtain all these goods? Either he stole them, or terrorist-sympathizing UN workers gave them to him. Either way, it is unconscionable.
  11. In addition, the IDF ascertained that Hamas had been smuggling rockets, guns and other weapons through this area. Had BH been cognizant of this while they were telling the IDF to refrain from attacking this area? Who knows, but I wouldn’t put it past them. The IDF also found passports and UN IDs, which indicates that Sinwar was planning to flee, like a coward, to Egypt with assistance from the UN. This is further evidence of the UN’s sympathizing with terrorists over Israel.
  12. This is just one of many examples of the UN’s blatant bias in regard to curbing terrorism in the ME. Another example is that since 2006 it has maintained a peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon to monitor the cease fire between Hezbollah and Israel. Recently, the NY Post reported that Hezbollah terrorists had dug a labyrinth of tunnels right under the noses of the peacekeepers which they had been utilizing to launch terror attacks in Israel. It described the UN as “worse than useless.”
  13. Opponents of Israel have persistently accused it of “genocide” against the Palestinians in Gaza. This accusation is not only inaccurate, but also it is inflammatory and dangerous. In point of fact, the Israelis have gone out of their way to minimize casualties, even providing advance warning of attacks so civilians could vacate the area. It is the Hamas terrorists who have shown a blatant disregard for Palestinian civilians by hiding among them and in hospitals and schools. The collateral damage means nothing to them. In fact, they want it for the optics. Unfortunately, this accusation has been accepted by many people. In a recent campaign speech Harris added fuel to the fire by stating that “[genocide] is real.” That was totally irresponsible. She should know better. She said it to rile up her base for votes. Afterwards, an anonymous campaign official attempted to clean it up, but she said what she said.
  14. As I have written in previous blogs BH have basically ignored the ongoing displays of antisemitism against American Jews. They have done nothing to deal with the violence on college campuses, nor the surging rate of crimes against Jews. They have many options. For example, they could have demanded that the college administrators deal with the matter or else lose funding. The Federal government provides a significant amount of financial aid to these universities in the form of grants. It also has the option to initiate legal action. They could have weaponized the Justice Department, Homeland Security and/or the FBI to investigate the masterminds behind the protests.
  15. Few people, think the protesters are all “students” who just happened to organize. In fact, according to a recently published study conducted by George Washington University Iranian agents have been “funding and fueling hate” on college campuses.
  16. It is no surprise that Harris has met several times with Imam Mohammed Ali Fahiem, who has deep ties with the Iranian regime, is vehemently antisemitic and anti-Israel, and is one of the suspected leaders of the antisemitic program against American Jews.
  17. In addition, they have done nothing to curb the overt and covert antisemitism against Jewish citizens.

CONCLUSION

Kudos to Israel for standing its ground against BH. Otherwise, we would have never found and killed Sinwar and discovered the duplicity of Hamas, the UN, and perhaps BH. This operation dealt a damaging blow to Hamas. I have often said the quickest way to rescue the hostages is to let Israel win the war.

Rather than criticizing Israel for its war strategy it should be admired for its determination to eradicate Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the rest of its enemies once and for all. In a sense it is fighting this war for all of us. Iran and the terrorists have been clear that they hate all “non-believers.” That includes all of us. If they were to succeed in annihilating Israel, they would not stop their aggression. Have we not learned anything from history?

Thankfully, there have been signs that the message is resonating with Jews. According to a recent poll by the Manhattan Institute Jewish support for Dems has been deteriorating. Currently, it is at 67%, which is the lowest in 40 years. By comparison 80% of Jews voted for Bill Clinton in 1992. The same poll reported that 86% of Jews supported Israel. Their chief complaint, according to Jesse Arm, chief of staff at the Institute was the Dem Party’s “tolerance” of the extreme criticism being levelled against Israel, notably calling it “genocidal.”

Anti-Trumpers, wake up. As I said above if you vote for Harris just because you hate Trump personally, you would onlybe hurting yourselves.

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2024 ELECTION UPDATE – HARRIS LAYS AN EGG ON FOX NEWS

A few months ago, when the Dem Party leaders selected Harris as the nominee, I asserted that her political policies were extremely far to the left, and if the public were aware of them, she would lose in a landslide. According to multiple media reports, at the outset of the campaign some 70% of the voters were unclear as to her policies and voting record. Consequently, for most of the campaign the polls have reported the race to be extremely close, virtually a dead heat. l suggested that in order to win her election strategy should be to endeavor to keep these policies hidden. Therefore, her overall strategy should adhere to the following principles:

  1. Say as little as possible.
  2. When forced to speak to the media only do so with friendly journalists who would not press her or ask follow-up questions.
  3. Limit her speeches to scripted comments and speak in generalities, rather than specifics.
  4. Rely on the friendly media to cover up, omit or alter any faux pas.
  5. When all else fails attack Trump and blame him for everything.

Conversely, Trump’s winning strategy was to somehow make the public aware of Harris’ far left policies. I believe that this strategy has been somewhat successful as more voters have become cognizant of Harris’ policies. The question is, is it enough.

For the most part Harris’ strategy was successful until recently. In the last week, however, it was becoming apparent that Trump had seized the momentum, which is very significant in elections. The Harris campaign had come to realize that she needed to change the narrative in order to regain the momentum. It decided that she should grant more interviews, including one with Fox News. It was a gamble, but it was one she had to risk. A few days ago, she participated in a one-on-one interview with Fox’s Bret Baer. Baer had a well-earned reputation of being fair but tough. Harris would have to be on her “A” game.

In a nutshell, she was not, not even close. Basically, she “laid an egg.” She was exposed before a huge audience. For many of them it was her first exposure to them. Rather than attract undecided voters, she turned them off.

My analysis of the interview is as follows:

  1. Parts of it were painful to watch. From the outset Harris appeared to be uncomfortable, defensive and argumentative.
  2. Baer was professional and respectful, but he did not let her get away with vague, general, non-responsive, and incomplete answers, which normally are her staple. Whenever she tried that he challenged her and asked follow-up questions in order to elicit an appropriate answer. Clearly, her inexperience with probing questions showed. She was not used to being challenged, and she didn’t handle it well.
  3. The interview was short – only 26 minutes. At some point, Baer realized that the point of her rambling, “word-salad” responses was to “run out the clock.” He began to interrupt her answers in order to elicit meaningful information. In some cases, she snapped back a retort like “may I finish responding, please? Many times, they ended up interrupting and talking over each other.
  4. There were several contentious topics, including immigration, the economy, relationship with Israel and Iran, and her relationship with Biden, among others.
  5. Regarding immigration, she continually dodged questions regarding the Biden/Harris policies. She did not accept any responsibility for the disaster at the southern border. She failed to explain her failure as “border Czar” to solve resolve the “root causes” or even visit the border until it became apparent that the issue had become a major negative. She stubbornly declined to concur that halting construction of the border wall or terminating Trump’s “remain in Mexico” policy were mistakes. She tried to deflect blame onto Trump for Congress’ failure to pass a comprehensive bi-partisan immigration bill, which she had championed. Baer interjected to explain that the bill would have made matters worse by giving the current policy the force of law and providing a “pathway to citizenship” for illegal immigrants presently in the US. That comment sparked one of the angry exchanges referred to above. She couldn’t or wouldn’t even disclose how many illegal immigrants had entered the country under her watch.
  6. She refused to elaborate on the controversial matter of Biden’s competence, such as what did she know and when did she know it.
  7. She offered no cogent plans on how to fix the economy, inflation or crime.
  8. Many times, she went to her default answer, which was to blame Trump. At one point, she characterized him as “unstable and unhinged” and questioned his “mental competence to hold office.”
  9. In a related matter Harris declined to attend the annual Al Smith Dinner. This is a non-partisan event hosted by the Catholic Diocese of NY. The goal is to raise money for various Catholic charities. Normally, it is attended by a cross-section of prominent politicians, wealthy executives, donors and members of the media. Attendance is considered a “must” for presidential candidates. Failure to attend is perceived as a “slap in the face” to Catholics. In the 90-year history of the event only one presidential candidate has ever declined to attend. That was Walter Mondale, the Dem candidate for president, in 1984. Coincidentally or not, in the ensuing election Mondale only won one state. Harris claimed she was campaigning, but the truth of the matter is she was already on thin ice with Catholics. She and her far left base are hardcore pro-choice and have been very critical of pro-lifers who have investigated and criticized what they considered to be Planned Parenthood’s “barbarism” toward women who choose to seek alternatives to abortion.

CONCLUSION

It was not a good week for Harris. Her campaign aides and allies in the media will likely try to spin it, but by any objective analysis her attempt to use the Bret Baer interview to widen her appeal had the opposite effect.

Likewise, Catholics will perceive her spurning the Al Smith Dinner as an insult.

All that said, the polls released in the last couple of days did not show any discernable movement. The race is still too close to call. Most everyone agrees it will be determined by the turnout for each candidate.

GET OUT AND VOTE!

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2024 ELECTION UPDATE – LATEST TRENDS AND STATUS OF SENATE RACES

Heretofore, my major focus has been on the presidential race and rightly so. As I write this, the various national polls report Harris with a slight one-to-two-point lead. These polls are mostly irrelevant since the winner is determined by electoral votes, but they do provide some incite as to trends and momentum. Furthermore, they reveal why multiple media outlets have been reporting that the Harris campaign is very concerned, if not panicked. More on that below.

For example:

  1. Harris has been leading Trump in the national polls, but lately her lead has been shrinking. For example, the most recent ABC/Ipsos poll disclosed Harris’ lead to be two points, down from six points last month; CBS News/You Gov reported Harris with a three-point lead versus four points last month; and RealClear reported 1.4% versus 2.2% just a few days ago. These may not seem like significant changes, but in such a close race one should be cognizant of the trend they indicate. Remember, in my last blog I described the significance of momentum in an election.
  2. Multiple polls have reported that Harris is losing support among Blacks and Hispanics, particularly males. This is not surprising since as I have written in previous blogs these groups favor Trump’s policies over Harris’, especially with respect to the economy, crime and illegal immigration. The latest NY Times/Siena and NY Post polls reported that Dem support among Blacks has declined from 90% in 2020 to 78%. Similarly, support among Hispanics has declined to 56%. Even though the Dems have been trying to scare Hispanics with Trump’s “get tough” policies regarding illegal immigrants, including deportation, they are not buying it. Polls show that 67% of Hispanics born in the US and 51% born in another country don’t believe those harsh policies will pertain to them. Both of these demographics have long been bellwether Dem supporters, but both groups have come to realize that the Dems are no longer delivering on campaign promises. Their primary complaints are regarding the economy/inflation, crime and illegal immigration.
  3. Prior to these surveys being published there were multiple media reports that Dems’ internal polls were indicating Harris was losing ground in the swing states and among Blacks and Hispanics. Political Journalist Mark Halperin denoted “there are a lot of really worried Democrats, and there are no really worried Republicans.”
  4. Across all demographics Harris is polling better among women and Trump is polling better among men.
  5. Multiple polls have reported that Trump is gaining in most of the swing states. The latest Redfield & Wilton survey of voters in GA and PA showed Trump to be up 1% in GA and 2% in PA. Again, although the margins are tiny and within the margin of error, they indicate a significant improvement compared to 2020 when Trump lost both GA and PA in tight races. These results are another indication of the shift in momentum towards Trump. If these leads hold up on ED and Trump also wins the other states in which he is currently leading, he will win the election.
  6. According to the NY Post more people who voted for Biden in 2020 have gravitated to Trump than to Harris. This is somewhat surprising since Harris, like Biden, is a Dem. Perhaps, it is an indication of the realization that Harris is a weaker candidate than Biden was in 2020. In the crucial states of PA and GA Trump is beating Harris in acquiring formerly Biden voters 12% to 6% and 13% to 11%, respectively. Again, this might not seem like much, but given the extremely tight races in those states, it is significant. Voters in both states identified the economy/inflation as their primary concern.
  7. Multiple media outlets have reported that Biden has been providing only tepid support for Harris. Apparently, he is resentful of the manner in which he was replaced by Harris. He feels he is still the better candidate, and his candidacy was sabotaged. For example, he has declined to attend some of her campaign events, and he was seen wearing a “Trump 2024” cap at a recent campaign event. Jason Meister, a strategist on the Trump campaign was blunter, saying “Biden is intentionally enacting revenge on Kamala for knifing him in the back.”
  8. Harris, whose campaign strategy had been to say as little as possible and only grant interviews with “friendly” journalists has recently agreed to appear on Fox News to be interviewed by Bret Baer. Baer will be fair, but it will not be a “softball” interview. She will likely have to explain her policies, in detail, including why they have changed since she became the nominee. This could be problematic for her, so I can only conclude that she is afraid, maybe even “panicked,” that she is losing. Prospectively, she may be forced to grant additional interviews outside of her comfort zone.
  9. The Senate could be a major issue. In my view, it is essential for the GOP to gain control of it in order to prevent the Dems from blocking legislation or even impeaching Trump like they did after the 2016 election. Presently, the Dems have slight control over the Senate – 51 (including two independents) to 49. Therefore, the GOP has to flip a net of two seats to obtain control (one if Trump were to win). According to multiple media reports West Virginia is virtually a “lock” due to Joe Manchin’s retirement. Montana is a good possibility as well. However, the Dems have a chance to flip Texas, where Ted Cruz is clinging to a narrow lead, and Nebraska. There are several other close races as well, so we’ll see what happens.

CONCLUSION

The presidential race remains tight. There are many states, including the swing states, where the polls report the margins to be very tight, well within the margin for error. The GOP has the momentum, but a lot can happen in the next few weeks to change the outcome. The GOP cannot be overconfident. Get out and vote!

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2024 PRESIDENTIAL UPDATE. MO FAVORS TRUMP.

Historically, momentum has proven to be a powerful force in elections. Often it is unrecognized or undervalued in the polls – until Election Day when the underdog who has been behind in the polls pulls an unforeseen upset. That is one of the axioms behind the famous expression that “the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day.” In recent history two examples of this phenomenon were Harry Truman defeating Dewey in 1948 and Donald Trump defeating Clinton in 2016. On the rare occasions when this occurs the winners are jubilant; the losers are shocked; and the “experts” are confounded. Who can forget the post-election visage of a grinning Truman holding aloft an early edition of the next day’s Chicago Daily Tribune boldly proclaiming, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”

Presently, all the polls indicate that the election remains very close as it has been for several months. In the national poll, which is essentially meaningless, the latest Guardian poll reports Harris ahead by two points 48% – 46%. It’s worth noting that the Guardian’s previous poll had Harris up by 4%, so Trump would appear to have some momentum.

More importantly, let’s consider the seven swing states that will actually decide the election – AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI. The latest Emerson and Real Clear Politics polls are consistently reporting that Trump has a slight one or two-point lead in AZ, GA, NV, NC, and PA, and the two are tied in MI and WI. This represents an improvement for Trump compared to the 2020 election and earlier 2024 polls, another hint that Trump is gaining momentum.

Pollster Matt Towery, Insider Advantage, noted that Trump is gaining with African Americans and Hispanics due to the economy and immigration issues. Hispanic citizens, in particular whose forebears emigrated legally, resent the illegal immigrants’ “jumping the line.” This is the opposite of what the Dems no doubt intended with their open-door policy. Ironically, the Dems are being “hoisted on their own petard.” Towery added that the Administration’s inadequate response to hurricanes Helene and Milton was another negative.

Pollster Robert Cahaly (Trafalgar Group) denoted that the polls may be undervaluing Trump. He speculated that there may be a “hidden vote” for him. Other polls may differ very slightly but taken as a whole the polls are indicating that Trump appears to have the momentum.

There is palpable pessimism among the Harris supporters. One senior Dem source apprised the NY Post that the Dems were “not in a Blue Wall panic… but they were concerned.” MI Dem Rep Elise Slotkin acknowledged “we have her underwater in our polling.”

Below please find what I consider to be the key recent developments based on multiple media reports:

  1. Trump is on the right side of the issues that voters have opined concerns them the most in this election – the economy, inflation, the border/illegal immigration, crime and security. The numbers with respect to these issues speak for themselves and cannot be explained away by the Dems with vague generalities, platitudes, and anti-Trump utterances.
  2. The electorate is gradually becoming cognizant that Harris’ reluctance to disclose her specific views on the issues is because she is hiding them in order to get elected. Her real views as expressed over her entire political career prior to becoming the nominee are so far to the left as to be downright scary. Even though she has given a few tv interviews recently with friendly journalists she has not acquitted herself well. She is still prone to giving rambling, non-responsive answers. In her recent interview with 60 Minutes a few of her answers were so embarrassing that the network had to edit them before showing them on tv.
  3. Based on polls in the swing states Trump is gaining among men, particularly Black and Hispanic men. Traditionally, Dem candidates have held decisive edges with these groups, but there are signs of much concern this year. For instance, recently the Harris campaign has launched ads aimed specifically aimed at Black and Hispanic men. Various observers, such as TX Rep Wesley Hunt, are predicting that Trump will have “the highest male Black vote of any Republican president[ial candidate] in modern history.” According to a recent NAACP survey 25% of Black men under 50 disclosed they would vote for Trump. This may not seem like much, but it represents a sizeable increase over previous election cycles.
  4. As a further indication of the extent of the Dems’ concerns regarding the above trends former President Obama in a recent speech actually lectured Blacks that it is “not acceptable for Black men to support Trump.” In addition, he asserted (incorrectly) that Black men are opposed to Harris based on her gender. I don’t believe that this insulting, demeaning and highhanded attitude will help the Dems with male Blacks.
  5. Moreover, local radio host Dan O’Donnell reported to the NY Post that the Harris campaign has taken the unusual tact of targeting Blacks in Philadelphia by advertising on hip-hop radio stations in the area.
  6. The NY Post reported that Black men such as Rafael Smith, a former Harris supporter from MI, has switched to Trump because he feels the Dems have taken his and other Blacks’ support for granted “just because [Harris] is a woman of color.” He said “I don’t really think they’re looking at what she has done within the last 3 1/2 years…”
  7. Another implication of concern among Dems is the appearance of former president Bill Clinton. The so-called “Big Dog” has commenced campaigning in NC and GA.
  8. Harris has committed to participate in a town hall interview on October 23 that will be hosted by CNN. As we all know, a town hall format is not exactly in her wheelhouse. In my view, this is a further illustration of her concern that her campaign is flailing.
  9. Trump has expressed his views and intentions on the issues very clearly. For example, he will not “pussyfoot” around with illegals, particularly those who have committed crimes against Americans. He states that his Administration “will either ‘put these vicious and bloodthirsty criminals in jail or get them the hell out of our country.’ ” He has even floated the idea of invoking the seldom-used Alien Enemies Act of 1798, which authorizes the president to “apprehend, restrain, secure and remove [those who] are deemed a threat to the US during wartime.” This language may be extreme or even illegal, but it resonates with those who are sick and tired of illegal aliens strutting into the US unrestrained and then preying upon US citizens.
  10. Trump has made other promises that show he is cognizant of voters’ major concerns. For example, he will “drill, baby drill;” he will deal more aggressively with Iran; and he will support Israel more strongly in its war against Iran and its terrorist proxies. He will not tax overtime pay or tips; he will eliminate the double taxation being levied against Americans living and working abroad; he will make interest on car loans tax deductible; and he will extend the Trump tax cuts that are scheduled to expire in 2025. These will primarily benefit middle class and working-class voters, which counters the Dem’s claim that his policies favor the wealthy.
  11. Despite multiple credible plots reported against him and two actual assassination attempts the government has still not acceded to all of the Trump campaign’s requests for enhanced security. Some Trump supporters have seriously questioned why, insinuating it may be part of a sinister assassination plot to leave Trump exposed.

CONCLUSION

As I said above, it appears that Trump has grabbed the momentum. He knows it; the Harris campaign knows it; you know it; and I know it. Just look at the substantial and enthusiastic crowds he draws wherever he goes. Just look at the signs of concern or even panic in the Harris campaign as delineated above.

Whether it’s due to a bias in the polling or the reluctance of some supporters to admit they will be voting for Trump, remember his appeal was undervalued in the polls in both 2016 and to a lesser extent in 2020. One caveat is that the election is far from over. A lot can happen between now and ED to swing the election, but at the present time it’s looking good.

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