At long last, we come to the end of the 2012 campaign. After all the speeches, all the debates, all the PAC ads, all the exaggerations and, yes, the deceptions, the voters will finally have their say. On Tuesday we get to exercise our constitutional right and pick our next President.
This election will be a pivotal one in the country’s history. When you strip away all the rhetoric and political obfuscation the election comes down to a basic choice. Voters will be choosing between two substantially different ideologies. Do we want to continue the current trend toward a big government society similar to those in Western Europe or do we want one that stresses the traditional American values of individualism and free enterprise.
This election is the closest in memory. As I write this on November 4, the election is still in a virtual dead heat and extremely difficult to forecast. Complicating matters further is the plethora of polls, some of which are contradictory.
At the present time, the consensus is that the popular vote, for what it’s worth, is dead even – 47.4% for Mr. Obama and 47.2% for Mr. Romney. Mr. Obama has a “safe” lead in states totaling 237 electoral votes, and Mr. Romney has a “safe” lead in states totaling 191. There are nine states totaling 110 electoral votes that are too close to call. They are: Colorado (9 electoral votes), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10). 270 electoral votes are needed to win. Most pollsters are opining that Mr. Obama will win enough of these nine battleground states to put him over the top. This appears to be based on (1) the polls indicating he has slim margins in most of them, although within the margin for error, (2) a lead in the “safe” states’ electoral vote count, and (3) Storm Sandy appears to have blunted much of Mr. Romney’s recent momentum.
I do not concur with that analysis completely. I do agree that Sandy has blunted Mr. Romney’s recent momentum as it has afforded Mr. Obama the opportunity to appear “presidential” in dealing with the aftermath. But, I think Mr. Romney will win Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia with a total of 84 electoral votes, enough of the battleground states to win the election. This is based on the fact that even though Mr. Obama has a slight lead in those states, according to the consensus of polls his plurality is 48% or less, and historically, undecided voters have voted predominantly for the challenger in almost every Presidential election. These five states will give Mr. Romney 275 electoral votes.
Because of the extremely slim margins anticipated in so many states, it is highly likely that there will be recounts and, perhaps, even court challenges in a few states. Thus, the official result may be delayed. But, when all is said and done, I predict Mitt Romney will become the 45th President of the United States.
From Rich F.
Again, good analysis, Larry – below is mine.
I agree Romney will win, but I have I have a different twist. Despite almost all pundits having it a virtual dead heat, I believe it will a very emphatic popular vote for Romney and the electoral count will be not be close – perhaps even near a landslide.
In 2008 Obama received about 53% and McCain 46%. I believe there will be virtually no defections from those who voted for McCain switching to Obama, but we all know some who voted for Obama and have changed their mind. That gives Romney 46% to start with. All other factors being equal, that means only a 4% switch from Obama to Romney will win him the elections. This will happen and even more will defect. It should be reversed with at least 53% for Romney.
Where will the changes come from?
1. Some of the support for Obama in 2008 came from those who detested Bush – for the Iraq war; his cowboy demeanor and the collapse of the economy on his watch. These people aligned McCain with Bush. Romney does not have the Bush baggage (1%+ switch)
2. The slogan from 1992 still applies – “It is the economy, stupid”. No one blamed Obama the first 2 years, but logic tells us the last 2 years shows his economic theories failed – college graduates can’t get good jobs – we all know some who are waitresses, work at a Sears, etc. and yes, living in their parents basement. Both parents and kids are ready to try a change, interest rates too low for elderly who rely on interest income to get reasonable return on savings and eating up their retirement principal, gas too high and clearly we can use more oil production, debt up $6 Trillion with no end in sight, and after all Romney does not seem so bad (certainly not like Bush) and what is there to lose? (at least 3% switch)
3. Jews are still liberal and vote Democratic, but do not underestimate the anger of many Jews to Obama’s many slights of Netanyahu and Israel and no progress in stopping Iran. When Dov Hikind, an Orthodox Jewish Congressman from Brooklyn goes to Florida to campaign for Romney in Jewish areas, it should not be minimized. There are not many Jews in the US, but enough in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida who will switch to Romney and may be the difference in those states (under 1%, but could determine some swing states).
4. There are working class traditional Democratic voters who have great patriotism and family in the military. They see the lies about Libya and coverup and “leaks” when bragging about Seal team 6, which put their lives in danger. They cannot stand seeing the US pushed around and the apologies given to Arab and European countries. Some will switch (could be another 1%).
5. Democratic Catholics who did not like the bullying tactics for birth control/abortion by Obama and Obamacare and feel it impacted their religious freedom (at least another 1%).
6. Now for the shocker – the black vote will be a little less than in 2008. There is still hardcore racial pride in having one of their own (understandable), but black unemployment is far higher than the rates for whites. Some may want “free stuff” as Bill O’Reilly says, but most just want the economy to be better and get a job. They know Obama has failed and will “secretly” vote for Romney. Both pre-voting and exit polling will not be accurate since people will be embarrassed to admit their true vote to a stranger. (1%).
7. Obama will also be hurt by blacks not voting. Many are disenchanted with his economic performance, upset at his position on gay marriage which is vehemently opposed by many black ministers and are generally satisfied they “won one Superbowl” with is historic election. They cannot bring themselves to vote for Romney, so will just not vote. This is not a “switched” vote, but will hurt Obama.
8. Also, some seniors realize that taking $716 Billion from Medicare to fund Obamacare for those without insurance will hurt them in the long run; and they also like their current Medicare Advantage, which is slated to go under Obamacare. (1%)
There you go – possibility of a 9% switch from Obama voters of 2008 (that would give Romney about 55%). Even if this is overestimated, it should still be 7% or more, which will reverse the 2008 numbers and give Romney about 53% to Obama’s 46-47%. And, Romney can win almost all the swing states under this analysis. (If there is a landslide for Obama, I will eat one of my many hats, go into hiding and change my name, but I feel I am safe…) Everyone should vote that they think is best and not listen to anyone, even LJ or me.
Please see my email reply. Feel better after watching Fox analysts on Factor last night. Most feel O’s sandy surge ended over weekend and R can regain enough to have reasonable chance. Morris still very positive.