The following is based on multiple media reports supplemented by my opinion as indicated.
Phase One of Trump’s Middle East Plan (the “Plan”) the exchange of 20 surviving hostages and the remains of four deceased hostages being held by Hamas for some 1,900 Palestinian prisoners that had been held by Israel is just the first step of Trump’s 20-point Plan. (It is thought that there are 24 additional deceased hostages whose remains were not returned, and as reported by NBC NEWS it is unclear when they will be.)
This was widely hailed as a great success and rightly so. The man whose enemies have characterized him as “unstable,” “power-hungry,” and a “warmonger” managed to arrange a miraculous peace agreement that few thought was possible. The euphoric and poignant sight of hostages being greeted by members of the Knesset in Jerusalem and then being reunited with their families was something to see. Of course, Trump haters such as Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and AOC could not manage to say anything positive. As I write this, they have remained silent. Other Dem politicians tempered their praise and/or did not mention Trump by name. Also silent are the protesters who had been claiming Israeli genocide.
So, how did Trump pull this off? How did he manage to accomplish in just nine months what a host of past presidents could not? (1) Through a plethora of past actions, he established his bona fides as a tough, decisive person who means what he says and says what he means. (2) He convinced Netanyahu that America was a staunch ally in its fight against Hamas and would support it unwaveringly. (3) He demonstrated to the various Arab heads of state that he could eliminate the threat of a nuclear Iran. Everyone knew Iran was within months of attaining nuclear capability, and regardless of politics everyone was terrified what the unstable mullahs would do with it. He gave Iran a deadline to dismantle its nuclear program. Unlike prior US presidents he followed through. When Iran failed to comply, he bombed the s**t out of its reactors, thus destroying its nuclear capability. This was done precisely and decisively remotely from the US. The Arab world took notice. It was awed and cowed by America’s power and its president’s willingness to employ it. (4) He assembled a consortium of 27 nations who wanted peace and were willing to support his efforts to attain it.
(5) Along the way the US succeeded in eliminating several key senior terrorists, again precisely and decisively. (6) It decimated Hezbollah and the Houthis and convinced Qatar to cut off its support to Hamas. (7) Hamas was now weakened and isolated; its allies had been neutralized; and it knew Israel was poised to “finish the job.” Essentially, that was how the “dealmaker” brokered the peace deal.
As I said, Trump has assembled a consortium of some 27 world leaders to support his Plan. It appears that they all want this chance of peace in the ME to succeed. Trump hailed the Plan as “not only the end of a war, [but] the end of an age of terror and death and the beginning of the age of faith and hope and of God. It’s the start of a grand concord of lasting harmony for Israel and all the nations of what will soon be a magnificent region.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu affirmed that he is “committed to this peace [Plan]. Many other world leaders and US politicians expressed similar views. Even former President Barack Obama and former VP Kamala Harris managed to express tepid praise for the Plan and for Trump’s role in its success. However, Harris refused to mention Trump by name, citing “the president.”
In accordance with the first phase of Trump’s plan, Israeli forces have moved to an initial withdrawal line within Gaza (the “yellow line”). However, as miraculous as Phase One was, it was the easy part. Now comes the hard part, securing the agreement of all parties to the rest of the Plan and then maintaining the peace. As I delineated in my previous blog on this subject the Plan contains several contentious points, each of which is a potential dealbreaker, that need to be ironed out or else the Plan will fall apart. As the expression goes, “the devil is in the details.”
Hamas is moving quickly and decisively to fill the power vacuum that currently exists in Gaza. Some 300 miles of its vast tunnel system remain intact. They are purported to contain considerable amounts of weapons, food, and medical supplies that could easily support further fighting.
In addition, there have been multiple reports of Hamas soldiers indiscriminately and arbitrarily murdering persons of rival clans that they perceive as opponents. It claims that these clans collaborated with Israel, which is unlikely. This bloodletting is a danger to the Plan’s success. It is essential that the powers that be establish a central governing body in Gaza to stabilize and administer it. More on this later.
According to NBC News many Palestinians fear the resumption of Israel’s offensive in Gaza. They are cognizant of the fact that Netanyahu and other members of his right-wing government have said that the struggle isn’t over yet. Indeed, Netanyahu has maintained that Israel’s “campaign is not over” until Hamas’ fighting capacity has been totally destroyed. Recently, as Israeli planes carried out strikes in Lebanon, he asserted that “some of our enemies are trying to recover in order to attack us again.” Many people have interpreted those comments as a disquieting indication that the halt to the fighting in Gaza did not mean an end to the wider conflict in the region.
The NY Times correctly denoted that persuading Hamas to disarm will be difficult (an understatement in my view). Hamas has steadfastly refused to disarm, and many (including me) doubt that it will. Israel has estimated that there are as many as 18,000 Hamas fighters still at large and armed. Indeed, Hossam Badran, a member of Hamas’ political bureau, has declared that “the proposed weapons turnover is out of the question and not negotiable.” Conversely, Netanyahu has asserted that “if Hamas does not disarm there will be no further compromises,” and Trump has asserted that Hamas will disarm or “we will disarm them.”
According to the NY Post the Plan is unlikely to reduce the deep and bitter enmity between Israel and the Gazans. On the contrary the Post opines that it will exacerbate as the Israelis ascertain more details of the inhumane treatment of the hostages and as the Gazans return to their homes only to find a pile of rubble. The war has killed close to 70,000 people, according to Palestinian health officials, and most of the buildings in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed. Moreover, most of the population is still living without adequate access to food, shelter, care and other vital needs. These abhorrent conditions are not sustainable.
As I explained in my previous blog on this topic perhaps, the most problematic bone of contention is the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. Support for this two-state solution has been growing internationally. Conversely, the idea is deeply unpopular among Israelis. According to a recent Pew Research Center poll only 21% of Israelis believe their country and a Palestinian state could coexist. This is the smallest percentage ever recorded since the survey commenced in 2013. Recently, when asked to opine on this issue Trump was noncommittal. He said “a lot of people like the one-state solution; some people like the two-state solution. We’ll have to see.” There is still a plethora of Muslim countries that do not recognize Israel as a country.
The rebuilding of Gaza will be an enormous task. For what it’s worth the UN has estimated that the area is covered with some 50 tons of rubble and debris that would take 30 years to remove completely. Additionally, the area is strewn with live ordnance, which must be removed for obvious reasons. It estimated the cost would be $50 billion, which will probably prove to be an understatement. Trump is expecting the various neighboring Arab nations to pony up the money, but as of yet there have been no volunteers. Furthermore, the area has suffered “brain drain” as many of the skilled and professional people have fled and are unlikely to return.
The issue of who will govern Gaza is another contentious point. The Plan calls for it to be governed initially by a “technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee” overseen by a “Board of Peace” led by Trump and others such as former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Some of the Arab states have suggested the Palestinian Authority. Netanyahu has declared he would “never” agree to that.
The situation is fluid and fraught with uncertainty and contradictions. For instance, according to the NY Post Iran has expressed support for terminating the “genocidal war” in Gaza but asserted it will continue to support Hamas “if Israel continues its expansionist and racial plans.” There have already been indications that the Plan is fragile and may not hold together.
Conclusion
As I said, Phase One of the Plan was a rousing success, but there is still much work to be done in order to achieve a lasting peace. For the Plan to succeed will require a considerable amount of time, money and fortitude. It will probably fall to the US to hold the current coalition together. It will be important to prevent the rise of new terrorist groups and to keep guard against outsiders who will seek to take advantage of what they perceive to be a power vacuum.
Finally, once again, one must be mindful of the lessons of history. Often, ill-advised decisions made after a war have sown the seeds for the next one. For example, during WWI the ill-conceived Balfour Declaration was intended to secure Jewish support for the Allied war effort. The declaration boosted the legitimacy of the Zionist movement and influenced the British Mandate for Palestine, leading to increased Jewish immigration and the eventual establishment of the State of Israel in 1948. Unfortunately, it was made without the consent of the majority Arab population in Palestine and came after Britain had made conflicting promises of independence to Arab leaders. This double-dealing, which many historians believe was intentional (since Britain needed both sides’ support to win the war) laid the groundwork for the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian wars that have plagued the Middle East ever since.
Also, the Allies’ harsh peace terms foisted upon Germany after WWI planted the seeds for the rise of Hitler and Nazi Party, which led to WWII.
On the positive side we should seek to emulate the success of the Marshall Plan following WWII by which the US propped up the war-torn countries of Europe which, in turn, prevented the spread of communism to those areas.
We Built It Blog by Larry Jacob 