Tag: j-d-vance

Donald Trump didn’t waste any time. He could have kept us in suspense a day or so longer. He could have maintained the drama and uncertainty a bit longer. But he chose not to do so. He had made up his mind. He knew whom he wanted, and as is his nature he acted decisively. As most of you know by now, he picked Ohio freshman Senator J. D. Vance as his running mate. As is customary, the convention delegates then approved him by acclimation.

Some observers were a little surprised. Vance was on Trump’s short list along with Florida Senator Marco Rubio, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, biotech billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy, North Dakota governor Doug Burgum and some others. Each of them would have brought pros and cons to the ticket. Eventually, it came down to Burgum and Vance. In the end, he went with Vance. Was Vance a wise choice? Will he help Trump, hurt him, or have no discernible effect? In the recent past there have been examples of candidates for president being elected despite their choices for VP (FDR in 1944, Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956, and Bush, the elder, in 1988). In my view, it depends. Vance brings both pros and cons to the ticket. See below for my analysis.

Vance’s life story is, in many ways, a microcosm of the true “American Dream.” It is an embodiment of how one can, through hard work, determination, and perhaps a little luck, rise above the circumstances of his birth and achieve greatness. It’s a cliche, but in his case it is true. There have been many examples of this. As they say, “only in America.”

He was born on August 2,1984 in Middletown, OH. His birth name was James Donald Bowman. Later, he was adopted by his mother’s third husband, and his surname was changed to Hamel.

His beginning was as bad as it gets. His family was very poor. He suffered through a terrible childhood plagued by violence and abuse. His father was not in the picture. His mother suffered from drug addiction. His parents divorced soon after his birth, and he was raised primarily by his maternal grandparents whom he called “Mamaw’ and “Papaw.” He recalled, “I grew up poor in the Rust Belt in an Ohio steel town that ha[d] been hemorrhaging jobs and hope for as long as I can remember.” There was never enough money for food and other necessities. He recalled his Mamaw often had to “negotiate” with social services personnel for extra food. Yep. It doesn’t get any worse than that. Yet, Vance exhibited the strength, courage and fortitude to overcome it all.

Upon graduating from high school Vance enlisted in the Marines. He served in Iraq first as a combat correspondent and later in the Public Affairs section. He characterized this period as the “defining chapter of [my] life where [I] first developed a sense of purpose.”

After he was discharged, he attended Ohio State University from which he graduated Summa Cum Laude in two years. Then, he attended Yale Law School where he was editor of the Yale Law Journal and President of the Yale Law Veterans Association. Upon graduation he married and adopted his grandparents’ surname of “Vance.” He had a very successful business career in technology and venture capital, and he wrote a best-selling book based on his upbringing called Hillbilly Elegy, which was also made into an Academy Award-nominated movie starring Gabriel Basso, Amy Adams and Glenn Close.

Politically, Vance is generally viewed as a conservative, which should appease the right wing of the GOP, although I’m not sure how the all-important independents will view him. For example, he has been opposed to abortion and same-sex marriage. Moreover, until recently he was sharply critical of Trump. In fact, he was an avowed “never-Trumper.” He went so far as to characterize Trump as “reprehensible,” cultural heroin,” an “opioid of the masses,” a “cynical a**hole, and “America’s Hitler.” He denigrated his policies as ranging from “immoral to absurd.” However, after observing Trump’s record and accomplishments as president he abruptly changed his opinion, and he became a strong supporter. He endorsed Trump way back in January 2023.

Politically, he has since exhibited some similarities to Trump and also some differences. For example, he is an advocate of a strong, secure border and is a strong supporter of Israel. On the other hand, as I mentioned above, he has expressed opposition to abortion and same-sex marriages.

If elected Vance, 39, would become one of the youngest VPs ever. The youngest was John Breckenridge who was 36 when he took office in 1821. A bit of trivia: he would also become the first Ohio native to be elected to the office since Charles Dawes in 1924 and the first VP since Charles Curtis to sport facial hair (1929-1933 under Herbert Hoover).

Vance is married with three children. His wife, Usha Chilukuri is an accomplished attorney who was a classmate at Yale Law School and who has clerked for Supreme Court Justices Brett Kavanaugh and John Roberts.

CONCLUSION

Vance was a bold choice for VP. I believe he brings both pros and cons to the ticket. As I said, his life story is most inspiring. It is an embodiment of the American Dream. As political commentator David Graham wrote in The Atlantic “he brings youth and intellect to the Republican ticket.” As Catherine Lucey and John McCormick opined in the Wall Street Journal he “offers Trump a natural successor to his MAGA movement. Trump had often said that this would be a critical element of his choice for VP.

On the other hand, there is much in his background for the Dem and Dem-supporting “spin doctors” in the media to attack, and they will definitely do so. They always do, and they are very effective at it. Their primary targets will likely be so-called “women’s issues” such as his early stance on abortion and same-sex marriage. Earlier in his career he was strongly opposed to abortion. He has since moderated his stance on the issue. He now characterizes it as a “state issue,” but the Dems will still attack him on it as it is probably their best (only?) issue. Additionally, they will gleefully repeat his early characterizations of Trump as listed above.

Yes, this was a bold choice by Trump. Despite all the recent negativity surrounding the Biden campaign and the well-publicized panic among many Dems who want him to withdraw, this is still a close election. My analysis of state-by-state polls reveals that Trump is currently ahead in states totaling 300 electoral votes, however, many of those margins are very narrow and within the margin of error. Also, it is still very early in the campaign, and history tells us that a lot can happen and often has happened between now and Election Day.

In summary, I believe Trump could have made a safer choice, one which would have been harder for the Dems and their allies to attack, but bottom line, I think Vance is a solid choice who will be efficacious to the ticket.

Whether or not that translates into victory remains to be seen. As always, the decisive factors will be organization and turnout. In 2020 and 2022 the Dems excelled in these areas, particularly in early voting and ballot harvesting. The GOP did not. The Trump campaign has to match the Dems in these areas, or it could very well lose.