What are the three words that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khomenei, and the rest of its leadership group dread more than any other? Repeat after me: it’s “drill, baby, drill.”
In 2020 Iran was on the brink of bankruptcy. The US’s fossil fuel production and exportation and Trump’s sanctions were strangling its economy. But then, the Biden Administration’s ill-advised policy of restricting US fossil fuel production coupled with relaxing sanctions and cash payments enabled Iran to flourish financially. In addition, it provided Iran with the means to finance its nuclear program and provide funding and other means of support to various terrorist groups, such as Hamas and Hezbollah. Trump’s re-election will change all that. Iran’s leadership is cognizant of that, and therefore it is, or should be, very, very concerned. More on that below.
Trump has made no secret of his intent. He has long been a strong supporter of the US fossil fuels industry. He has been repeating his mantra of “drill, baby, drill” for months. It has become one of the cornerstones of his campaign. This will also include building new refineries, power plants, and reactors and reopening the Keystone Pipeline. In conjunction with increasing production he maintains that his policy will “slash red tape” and reverse many restrictions and regulations regarding US carbon emissions.
The US has more oil reserves than any other country, and it has the ability to become the number one producer and exporter of oil and gas. The Green New Deal advocates will squawk, but Trump’s landslide election victory has given him the power to proceed. That was his approach during his first term, and it worked as I noted above. Even more concerning to Iran is that Trump has the reputation of saying what he means and meaning what he says.
Multiple media sources have reported that Trump will initiate his fossil fuel policy within a few days of his inauguration. The people elected him for that purpose, and he will be only too eager to follow through. The likelihood is that Trump fossil fuel policy will exert maximum pressure on Iran (as well as other fossil producing countries).
According to Reuters Trump is prepared to enact a “wide-ranging energy plan” to explore and drill for oil and gas, including off the coast of the US and on federal lands, for both domestic use and export. For example, according to Bloomberg.com Trump has advised that his administration will be “ready within seconds” to do so.
Newsweek and Montana’s Livingston Enterprise reported that Mike Dunleavy, Alaska’s governor, has been urging Trump to commence exploring for fossil fuels in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. This would be very controversial. The potential economic benefits would be substantial as the lands sits on an estimated 7 -12 billion barrels of oil. On the other hand, the ANWR is an ecosystem that supports some 700 species of plants and animals. Various environmental groups have long been opposed to developing this area. Their opposition has been supported by a goodly portion of Congress.
In my view Trump’s fossil fuel policy will yield various benefits:
- He has claimed his policies will reduce energy prices “in half within 12 months,” which, in turn, will reduce inflation. Exaggeration? Hyperbole? Perhaps, but I wouldn’t bet against it.
- It will exert maximum pressure on Iran (as well as other fossil producing countries) to be more flexible in their relations with the US.
- Trump will likely exert pressure on Iran to (1) curb its support of terrorist organizations, (2) curtail its development of a nuclear weapon, and (3) and tone down its hostility toward Israel.
- Similarly, Russia’s oil revenue would be reduced and with it its influence over our European allies who are presently overly dependent on Russia for their oil. Furthermore, the loss of revenue would impair its ability to fund its war with Ukraine, which might make it more amenable to negotiating a settlement.
- It will roll back much of the wasteful and inflationary Green New Deal. He has vowed to “rescind all unspent funds.” Despite its many flaws and wasteful provisions, the GND has many supporters even some among the GOP, so the expectation is that he will direct his staff and allies in Congress to “use a scalpel rather than a sledgehammer” in effecting cuts.
- Trump will likely take a hard look at electric vehicles. They have their supporters and detractors, but there is no need to make them mandatory as the Dems want to do.
CONCLUSION
Trump’s overall energy policy is supported by a clear majority of Americans. For the reasons cited above its implementation will benefit the country economically, politically, militarily, geopolitically, and security-wise. Some parts of it will be implemented on Day 1; other parts will take a few weeks or months; still other parts will take longer or may be blocked entirely. However, we can be confident that Trump will follow through to the best of his ability. He has his strong mandate. He will not be deterred.
He will make America united again. He will make America strong again. He will make America respected again. He will make America safe again. Most importantly, he will make America great again.
We Built It Blog by Larry Jacob 