Tag: donald-trump

THE BLAME GAME

And so, it begins. That didn’t take long. Just a few days after the election and the Dem Party and its supporters have already begun to point fingers. The blame game is in full swing. They’re all stunned by Trump’s resounding victory. They wonder, how could this have happened? How could so many people have voted for the “fascist,” “racist,” “misogynistic,” “Hitler-reincarnated” Trump?

Incredibly, they have no idea. It’s Harris’ fault; no, it’s Biden’s fault; no, it’s the Party power brokers’ (PBs”) who wield the real power behind the scenes fault; no, it’s the donors; no, it’s the Obamas; no, it’s the Clintons; no, it’s the media. Well, in my view, if they’re looking to ascribe blame, they should all look in the mirror. They’re all right and they’re all wrong.

The last few days of listening to Dems supporters’ meltdowns have actually been entertaining. For example:

  1. CNN anchor Jake Tapper requested that a staffer show him a graph of the states in which Harris had outperformed Biden by in excess of three percent. The staffer showed him a blank gray map.
  2. The View‘s co-host Sunny Hostin simplistically blamed “uneducated white women” for Harris’ defeat.
  3. NYS Governor Kathy Hochul and Trump prosecutor Leticia James, rather than focusing on cooperating with Trump to resolve the state’s copious serious problems, vowed to pursue “potential federal legal threats to reproductive freedom, gun safety laws, and other key issues.” Huh?
  4. NBC’s “Morning Joe” concluded that Harris’ defeat was due to “misogyny and racism from minority voters.”
  5. Late night comedians Seth Meyers, Jimmy Kimmel, Jimmy Fallon, and Stephen Colbert, and I use the term loosely, who host shows that few people bother to watch anymore, acted like their best friend had died.
  6. AOC blamed “sexism” and warned “scary time[s]” were ahead under a Trump presidency.
  7. Al Sharpton dismissed and denigrated male blacks who had voted for Trump as “racists.” Huh?
  8. Writing in the NY Times columnist Peter Baker opined that America is “not ready for a woman in the Oval Office.”
  9. “Woke” colleges, such as Harvard and Columbia, cancelled classes or established “coping rooms” for distraught students. Puhlease!
  10. Several prominent “wokers” have speculated that Trump will retaliate against them personally. News flash. He has no intention of wasting his time on you. For one thing, you’re not that important. In addition, he has much more pressing matters to address, and his stated intent is to unite, not retaliate, a concept that is foreign to you.

As I said, these people are way out of touch and in denial. They believed their own propaganda.

In my opinion:

  1. The PBs stuck with Biden for too long. It was an open secret that his cognitive abilities were in a steep decline. The evidence was right there for all to see if they just cared to look. His family knew it; his staff knew it; the media knew it; the donors knew it; and eventually, most significantly, the electorate knew it (the ones who were objective, anyway). His decline had become noticeable in 2021, but the specter of COVID gave him a plausible reason to run his campaign largely hidden from public view. Rather than do its job the media aided and abetted him. No outsiders knew “the emperor had no clothes.” For those who know their history it was reminiscent of FDR and his staff’s hiding his polio affliction from the public. They should have realized that his decline would become known at some point, but they arrogantly believed they could hide it and if it were to come out, they could manage it.
  2. Biden’s disastrous debate with Trump was the watershed event. It caused a massive panic among Dems. Biden was exposed before the whole world as a fumbling, bumbling, mumbling, stumbling shell of his former self. Suddenly, just three months before the election, the secret was out. He was no longer a viable candidate. He needed to be replaced both as a candidate and as president or else Trump would surely win.
  3. The Dem Party PBs (who had really been running the country) were in a real quandary. Stubbornly, Biden refused to step aside. His attitude was he had swept the primaries fair and square garnering over 14 million votes. At the convention the delegates had made him the unanimous choice as Dem nominee. He had beaten Trump once; he could and would do it again.
  4. According to that pesky document known as the Constitution the only way to replace him legally would have been to declare him unfit for office under the 25th Amendment. But that would have meant a long, drawn-out public process that would have severely damaged the campaign. That was a nonstarter. They needed a new candidate, and fast.
  5. Finally, the PBs decided to force Biden to withdraw and replace him with Kamala Harris. It was nothing less than a coup perpetrated by, among others Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck (the “Chameleon”) Schumer, key donors, and probably other undisclosed PBs. In their view, it had to be Harris. As VP she was already in place in the campaign, and she was only person who could access the hundreds of millions of dollars of accumulated campaign funds.
  6. It didn’t matter that as a presidential candidate in 2020 she had been so bad that she had had to drop out before the Iowa caucuses. It didn’t matter that she had not won a single electorate vote. It didn’t matter that she had only been chosen as VP because Biden needed a running mate who was a black woman. It didn’t matter that she had been such an incompetent VP that there had been discussions to replace her on the 2024 ticket. It didn’t matter that she was the most far-left senator, a genuine died-in-the-wool Socialist, even further to the left than admitted Socialist Bernie Sanders. The PBs forced Biden out and shoe-horned her in. It was a coup, plainly and simply.
  7. The hope was to hide her real views from the electorate and rely on the mainstream media and the perceived widespread hatred of Donald Trump to carry the day.
  8. To make a long story short, it worked for a while, until it didn’t. Harris was a terrible candidate, and she ran a terrible campaign. She couldn’t hide from her 20 years of far-left policies; she couldn’t separate herself from Biden’s disastrous four-year record; and she was on the wrong side of every issue that mattered to the electorate – the economy, the border, crime, and security, to name a few. In the end her only viable strategy was to gaslight voters by avoiding interviews. She continually flip-flopped her policies to the extent that voters didn’t know her true beliefs, and they didn’t trust her.
  9. It didn’t help matters that she chose another Socialist, MN Governor Tim Walz, as her running mate over PA Governor Josh Shapiro. The pick was not viewed as a wise strategic choice since PA was a swing state that Shapiro, as VP nominee, would likely have carried for the ticket. It was widely viewed as a sop to the far left, antisemitic, pro-Muslim wing of the Party. With his “baggage” and buffoonery Walz turned out to be a negative factor. He even lost his home county to Trump.
  10. Perhaps, the happiest Dem today is Biden. Reports are that he is “giddy” over Harris’ decisive loss and views it as vindication and revenge for his forced removal. It doesn’t matter that he likely would also have lost, and perhaps worse.
  11. The primary problem for the Dems is that were out of touch with the voters. Their arrogance was boundless. They were living in their own insulated world. They were focused on abortion, pronouns, DEI, and name calling while voters cared about the economy, immigration and crime. They should have taken the time to mingle with the people. Go to malls. Take to the streets. Go to diners. Go to small businesses. Converse with ordinary people. Ask them questions. Listen to their answers.
  12. Voters no longer trusted the media; they no longer listened to elite politicians, entertainers or sports heroes who thought they knew what was good for them and did not hesitate to tell them so. They realized that these people knew less about their daily life struggles than they did. Moreover, they didn’t care about them. They arrogantly characterized regular people as “deplorables,” “racists,” “misogynists,” or “garbage.” They lived in a different world that was insulated from the hard life issues everyone else faced. They didn’t have to worry about putting food on the table, gassing up the car, paying the rent, or saving for their kids’ education, etc. They lived in gated communities with private security. They traveled in private jets. When was the last time Beyonce or George Clooney went to a grocery store or gassed up their car? Beyond their ignorance and indifference, they lectured the ordinary folks as to how they should live and what was good for them.
  13. Trump and the GOP listened and learned. For example, he perceived that all working and middle voters, whites, black and Latinos all had the same concerns and fears, which have been described numerous times by me and many others. He intuited that Hispanic citizens were just as opposed to illegal immigration as the rest of us. Rather than seeking to divide us as the Dems were, he sought to unite us. His points resonated, and we saw the result.

That was why the Dems lost and lost so thoroughly.

The first step to correcting a problem is to acknowledge it. As I write this, the Dems are still in denial.

CONCLUSION

Trump did not win a squeaker. It was a massive landslide. He won over 300 electoral votes; he won the popular vote by some five points, he carried the Senate; he likely will carry the House; he made historic inroads into traditionally Dem voting blocs such as blacks, Hispanics, Jews, and young people. In essence he expanded the base of the GOP. He forged a coalition of working class, middle class and minority voters that could last for a long time. It is comparable to what FDR accomplished for the Dems in 1932.

This dramatic shift to the right was confirmed by commentator Patrick Ruffini who characterized it as “unprecedented in the modern era.” Remarkably, Trump accomplished all this despite being subjected to eight years of non-stop misinformation, outright lies, harassments and impeachments, not to mention two assassination attempts.

As I said, today, the Dem Party is in disarray and disbelief. It has been hijacked by the small but vocal far left, woke, antisemitic, Pro Muslim, wing of the Party. Where are the moderate Dems? They need to speak up. The moderates in the Party need to jettison that radical element and return to the mainstream or else it will lose its relevance as a major party.

As for the GOP, it now faces the difficult challenge of governing. The electorate will expect it to solve all the problems that they have inherited from the Biden Administration, and, as we all know, there is a long list. Otherwise, it will lose credibility, and there may very well be a reckoning in 2026 and 2028.

It will not be easy. Once the Dems get over their shock and get organized, they and their media allies will resist. The lies, harassments and half-truths will return. Already, there have been rumblings. Trump and the GOP have to act quickly and decisively.

Note: in that vein, today he announced that Susie Wiles, the brilliant architect of his campaign, will be his chief of staff. Wiles, the daughter of former NFL player and announcer Pat Summerall, is the first female to hold that powerful and prestigious position. It appears to be an inspired choice. Kudos to her.

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2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PREDICTION

This will be my final 2024 presidential election blog before the big day. (I can hear the wild cheering in the background.) If you are like me, regardless of your preference, you will be happy to get all the excessive and extraneous chatter over with and get on with the real voting. Talk is cheap; play the game.

Most prognosticators predict that this will be a very close election with the winner too close to call. That may be true, but I submit it is a coward’s way out. I will show no fear and make a prediction. Feel free to disagree. I would welcome your comments.

My analysis is as follows:

  1. According to most of the latest polls Harris has a slight lead in the national vote, which the Dems almost always win. That is informative but largely irrelevant, although it is worth noting that her lead is much slimmer than that which is normal. It is the electoral votes of the individual states that count. Many people think that is unfair, but there are various historical reasons for that, which I have discussed in previous blogs. In any event, it is what it is.
  2. There are seven “swing” states that will decide the election. Excluding those states, I have calculated that Harris is leading and likely to win in states totaling 241 electoral votes. Trump is leading and likely to win in states totaling 204 electoral votes.
  3. The aforementioned swing states are MI (15 electoral votes), NC (16), AZ (11), GA (16), PA (19), NV (6), and WI (10). Those states represent 93 EVs. All the latest polls report Trump and Harris to be tied or within the margin of error in all of them, except for AZ where Trump has a four-point lead.
  4. Because of those poll results prognosticators are loath to make a definitive prediction. They are hedging their bets.
  5. I, however, have no such reservations.
  6. I will go out on the proverbial limb and predict that Trump will win, and the EV total may not even be close. Why? See below.
  7. I have doubts as to the accuracy of the polls. In the last two elections they have significantly underestimated Trump’s support. In 2016 he was several points behind Clinton, and he won in what was considered a big upset. In 2020 he lost to Biden by a “hair,” but he still outperformed the polls.
  8. Trump has drawn tremendously large, enthusiastic crowds wherever he has gone. For example, at MSG in deep blue NYC he drew 20,000 inside the arena and untold thousands more outside. In my view this is irreconcilable with the polls, and it is the main reason why I doubt their accuracy.
  9. According to multiple polls Trump is drawing significantly more support among blacks and Hispanics, which traditionally have been strong Dem supporters. This is another harbinger that I don’t believe is being reflected fully in the polls.
  10. Normally, the Dems gain a sizeable advantage in early voting. That forces the GOP to play “catch-up” on ED. Often, due to the vagaries of weather or other unforeseen circumstances, that gap has been too much to overcome. During this election cycle the GOP has emphasized EV, and the results have been very encouraging.
  11. In NC I think the impact of hurricane Helene will be very significant, particularly in the western part of the state. Thousands of people lost everything, and the Feds’ response and support was terrible. In addition, this event is very recent and should be fresh in their minds.
  12. Regarding PA I don’t think many people will be deceived by Harris’ inconsistent position on fracking, which is crucial to the state’s economy. They realize she is gaslighting them. In addition, Dem Senator John Fetterman, who is monitoring the campaign in PA very closely, has characterized the level of Trump’s support on the “stump” as “astonishing.” He also thinks that Elon Musk’s support will be a considerable plus for Trump.
  13. As always, turnout will be the key, but based on the foregoing analysis I predict that Trump will carry AZ, G, NV, NC and PA. Those 68 EVs would bring his EV total to 272 and a narrow victory.
  14. I am less certain about MI and WI, but he could carry them as well, which would bring his EV total to 297, which would constitute more of a mandate.
  15. Let’s not overlook the Senate. The GOP needs to flip a net of two seats to gain control. According to CNN there are several Dem seats that are vulnerable. With Joe Manchin retiring WVA is a “lock.” Montana and Ohio are strong possibilities. Other possibilities are MI and WI, particularly if Trump were to win those states.
  16. Individual House races are unpredictable, but in my view the GOP should retain control.

Conclusion

If I am right the GOP should have sufficient control to enable Trump to enact his policies. Furthermore, the government would not have to deal with phony impeachments or other distractions.

If I am right, it will be time to TAKE OUT THE TRASH AND DRAIN THE SWAMP!

One disquieting thought. As we all know, the country is very divided. We can debate whose fault that is, but the fact remains that supporters of the losing candidate will likely contest the results. The closer the election, the stronger the likelihood of that occurring. That would be their right, but let’s hope any such protests are peaceful.

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TRUMP AT MSG. SUPPORTERS 20,000, NAZIS 0

As you all know, this past Sunday Donald Trump held a massive rally at Madison Square Garden in NYC. The concise headline in the NY Post summed it up perfectly, “A MEGA MAGA AT THE MECCA.”

Trump boldly decided to stage a massive rally in arguably the bluest of blue venues, NYC. This is the same NYC that virtually always votes for Dem candidates from the president on down to the City Council and for every office in between. This is the same NYC that hosted his Stalin-era “show trial” a few months ago on “trumped up” charges that resulted in a conviction, which will certainly be overturned by the higher courts.

According to multiple media reports the Garden was filled to capacity; plus, there were thousands more people outside who could not get in. Among the attendees were my grandson, Mason, and three of his friends. Despite the inane and execrable statements that have been spewed out by many Dems and their allies in the media regarding those who attended the rally I can assure you that my grandson and his friends are not Nazis. They, like all the other attendees are people who are fed up with the state of the country and believe that Trump will fix it.

According to Mason there was a wide cross-section of people of all ages, genders, and races with nary a Nazi in sight. Other eyewitness accounts published in multiple media outlets have confirmed this. For example, Lily Zuckerman, reported in the Post seeing several Jews wearing Stars of David and traditional Orthodox garb such as kippahs and black hats. She added that people were generally upbeat, vibrant, joyous, and friendly. More gaslighting by desperate and duplicitous Dems exposed.

Mason and his friends got up at 6:00 am, arrived at around 7:40, and reported there were already a goodly number of people there. The Post reported that some 2,000 people had been camping out for as long as 48 hours. The crowd was peaceful and in festive spirits. They waited outside several hours before the doors were opened, but they were able to get good seats inside. Much of the overflow that could not get in watched the proceedings from inside nearby restaurants and bars, but thousands more remained outside, content just to be part of the event. Once the proceedings commenced the crowds were raucous and enthusiastic but peaceful. The Post compared the atmosphere and enthusiasm to that seen for rock stars. Many fans had driven hundreds of miles and camped out for days to be a part of it.

As I said, there was a wide cross-section of people in attendance. But do you know what was missing from the rally? Nazis. There was nary a Nazi flag or swastika in sight. Speaker Hulk Hogan, in his blunt, bombastic manner, bellowed “I don’t see no stinking Nazis in here!” Do you know what else was missing? Protesters. One secret service agent was quoted as estimating the number of protesters at about 150, hardly a blip.

In a demonstration of unity, the program included speeches by a wide cross-section of supporters including allies such as Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, former opponents such as Vivek Ramaswamy and RFK, non-political luminaries such as Rudy Giuliani, Hulk Hogan and Tucker Carlson, former Dems such as Tulsi Gabbard, VP nominee J. D. Vance, and the former First Lady, Melania (not a Nazi among them either). Indeed, in what world would one find Orthodox Jews and pro-Israel banners at a Nazi rally? Many of the speakers specifically defended Israel and criticized BH for the manner in which they have treated it.

The massive and enthusiastic crowd counteracted the claim by the Dems that he is unfit for office. In addition, columnist Piers Morgan characterized Clinton’s comparison of this rally to the 1939 pro-Nazi rally as “despicable” but consistent with the Dems “incessant and hysterical demonization” of Trump. I couldn’t have said it better myself.

Trump led off his speech with the standard question, “are you better off today than you were four years ago?” Of course, that got the crowd fired up, because for 90% of us the answer is a resounding NO! Then, he covered the usual topics, such as the economy, the border, mass deportation of illegal migrants, reinstituting drilling for oil and gas, no tax on social security, tips, and overtime, and fighting crime. He introduced a new tax initiative – a tax cut for caregivers who look after family members. He introduced a new tag line, which I think will resonate. “Kamala broke it, but I will fix it.”

The Dems have gotten so desperate it’s pathetic. In every previous election in my lifetime each candidate had bona fide issues that he could run on. Voters might not agree, but at least there was something to discuss. This is the first election I can recall in which the incumbent, Harris, has had nothing bona fide to run on. She has been VP for four years and she has no accomplishments to point to. None.

The economy is as bad as at any time since the Great Depression. The border is wide open. Illegal immigrants are pouring in at will. (Presently, we actually have no real southern border.) Crime is skyrocketing and becoming more random, especially in the cities run by Dems. There are no longer any “safe, crime-free” areas. Due to “no-bail” laws criminals are often released from jail before the paperwork for their arrest has been completed. Moreover, they are often not even getting prosecuted due to “woke” DAs. Businesses and people have been abandoning the crime-ridden cities for more law-abiding locales. Those who have remained are afraid to go out. There are wars in the ME and in Ukraine, which are threatening to metastasize into WWIII. We have abandoned our allies and placated our enemies.

Even worse, the country is as divided as I have ever seen it. GOP vs Dem, progressive vs. conservative. Antisemitism is as overt as I have ever seen it. The atmosphere is almost as bad as it was under the Nazis in pre-WWII Germany. Colleges are being controlled by pro-terrorist, anti-Jewish administrators and agitators. Many Jews are afraid to identify themselves as Jewish. All of the foregoing has developed and spun out of control in the last four years under Biden-Harris. They have been unable or unwilling to deal with it.

So, I repeat, Harris has nothing positive to claim in her four years. So, what have she and her cohorts done? They have manufactured issues, and they have lied. “Trump” is a Nazi.” “Trump is Hitler.” “Trump’s rally at MSG is reminiscent of the infamous Nazi rally of 1939.” “Trump should be in prison.” “Trump is a threat to democracy.” “Trump wants to be a dictator. He will never leave office.” “Trump wants to outlaw abortions.”

Of course, none of these is even remotely true. The Dems know they are losing, possibly badly. They are desperate. They are flailing, trying to foment hate, division, fear and dissension. Personally, I find some of above characterizations as very offensive, particularly the references to Hitler and Nazis. Perhaps, Harris and her campaign are unaware of the Holocaust in which Hitler and the Nazis murdered six million Jews and millions of others. Every Jew, indeed, every Trump supporter, should be outraged.

The fact of the matter is that if anyone is antisemitic it is Harris and her cohorts given their tepid support of Israel and laissez faire attitude toward the bias being visited upon Jews at the present time. I have discussed this in detail in previous blogs.

If anyone is a threat to democracy it is these same power-hungry phonies. It was they who carried out a four-year deception against the American people by hiding Biden’s deteriorating cognition, thus allowing a president to remain in office who was unfit to serve. Who was actually running the country? We don’t know. Certainly not Biden. They should have invoked the 25th amendment, which had been enacted for this very situation. By not doing so they violated the Constitution in order to maintain their power and control.

I have noticed that whatever outlandish accusation the Dems make against Trump they themselves are guilty of it. For example, they say he is antisemitic and a threat to democracy, but those are traits that they have exhibited. It was they who threw a duly elected president and duly nominated presidential candidate “under the bus.” It was they who cast aside a candidate who had received 18 million primary votes in favor of one who had not received any. It was they who blocked a bona fide candidate, RFK, Jr., from pursuing his candidacy, and sought to keep Trump off the ballot in various states for no bona-fide reason. It was they who sought to imprison Trump on “trumped up” charges because they realized they couldn’t beat him fair and square. It is they who have fomented divisiveness and hatred even though they know it is likely to encourage some mentally and emotionally unbalanced person to try to assassinate Trump. It is they who have not provided Trump with sufficient Secret Service protection despite two previous assassination attempts and credible threats of others. And it is they who are trying any means, nefarious and otherwise, to hold on to power.

Conclusion

The polls still indicate that the race is very, very tight, both nationally and in the battleground states, but there are signs that that may not be the case. For whatever reason in every election the polls have underestimated Trump’s support. In both 2016 and 2020 Trump outperformed the polls in the actual election. Those polls reported him to be behind both Clinton and Biden. Yet, he won in 2016 and lost by a hair in 2020. Also, he is ahead of where he was on this date in those election cycles.

Additionally, one cannot ignore the large and enthusiastic crowds he attracts wherever he campaigns, even in a deep blue venue such as NYC. Harris’ crowds have not come close.

Finally, one can sense the desperation in the Harris campaign. For example, she agreed to an interview on Fox News where she knew she would not be able to get away with her normal evasive, non-answer answers. This was way out of her comfort zone, and it showed.

Finally, the Harris campaign has called out the “big dogs,” the Obamas and the Clintons, to help. They, too, know she is losing.

All that said, we all know that the only poll that counts is the one on ED. We’ve learned that lesson many times, most recently in the 1948 and 2016 elections.

So, GOPers, don’t be complacent. Your vote counts. The GOP needs to expand its majority in the House and flip the Senate. Trump needs a clear and decisive mandate in order to govern effectively.

VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!

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2024 ELECTION UPDATE – HARRIS LAYS AN EGG ON FOX NEWS

A few months ago, when the Dem Party leaders selected Harris as the nominee, I asserted that her political policies were extremely far to the left, and if the public were aware of them, she would lose in a landslide. According to multiple media reports, at the outset of the campaign some 70% of the voters were unclear as to her policies and voting record. Consequently, for most of the campaign the polls have reported the race to be extremely close, virtually a dead heat. l suggested that in order to win her election strategy should be to endeavor to keep these policies hidden. Therefore, her overall strategy should adhere to the following principles:

  1. Say as little as possible.
  2. When forced to speak to the media only do so with friendly journalists who would not press her or ask follow-up questions.
  3. Limit her speeches to scripted comments and speak in generalities, rather than specifics.
  4. Rely on the friendly media to cover up, omit or alter any faux pas.
  5. When all else fails attack Trump and blame him for everything.

Conversely, Trump’s winning strategy was to somehow make the public aware of Harris’ far left policies. I believe that this strategy has been somewhat successful as more voters have become cognizant of Harris’ policies. The question is, is it enough.

For the most part Harris’ strategy was successful until recently. In the last week, however, it was becoming apparent that Trump had seized the momentum, which is very significant in elections. The Harris campaign had come to realize that she needed to change the narrative in order to regain the momentum. It decided that she should grant more interviews, including one with Fox News. It was a gamble, but it was one she had to risk. A few days ago, she participated in a one-on-one interview with Fox’s Bret Baer. Baer had a well-earned reputation of being fair but tough. Harris would have to be on her “A” game.

In a nutshell, she was not, not even close. Basically, she “laid an egg.” She was exposed before a huge audience. For many of them it was her first exposure to them. Rather than attract undecided voters, she turned them off.

My analysis of the interview is as follows:

  1. Parts of it were painful to watch. From the outset Harris appeared to be uncomfortable, defensive and argumentative.
  2. Baer was professional and respectful, but he did not let her get away with vague, general, non-responsive, and incomplete answers, which normally are her staple. Whenever she tried that he challenged her and asked follow-up questions in order to elicit an appropriate answer. Clearly, her inexperience with probing questions showed. She was not used to being challenged, and she didn’t handle it well.
  3. The interview was short – only 26 minutes. At some point, Baer realized that the point of her rambling, “word-salad” responses was to “run out the clock.” He began to interrupt her answers in order to elicit meaningful information. In some cases, she snapped back a retort like “may I finish responding, please? Many times, they ended up interrupting and talking over each other.
  4. There were several contentious topics, including immigration, the economy, relationship with Israel and Iran, and her relationship with Biden, among others.
  5. Regarding immigration, she continually dodged questions regarding the Biden/Harris policies. She did not accept any responsibility for the disaster at the southern border. She failed to explain her failure as “border Czar” to solve resolve the “root causes” or even visit the border until it became apparent that the issue had become a major negative. She stubbornly declined to concur that halting construction of the border wall or terminating Trump’s “remain in Mexico” policy were mistakes. She tried to deflect blame onto Trump for Congress’ failure to pass a comprehensive bi-partisan immigration bill, which she had championed. Baer interjected to explain that the bill would have made matters worse by giving the current policy the force of law and providing a “pathway to citizenship” for illegal immigrants presently in the US. That comment sparked one of the angry exchanges referred to above. She couldn’t or wouldn’t even disclose how many illegal immigrants had entered the country under her watch.
  6. She refused to elaborate on the controversial matter of Biden’s competence, such as what did she know and when did she know it.
  7. She offered no cogent plans on how to fix the economy, inflation or crime.
  8. Many times, she went to her default answer, which was to blame Trump. At one point, she characterized him as “unstable and unhinged” and questioned his “mental competence to hold office.”
  9. In a related matter Harris declined to attend the annual Al Smith Dinner. This is a non-partisan event hosted by the Catholic Diocese of NY. The goal is to raise money for various Catholic charities. Normally, it is attended by a cross-section of prominent politicians, wealthy executives, donors and members of the media. Attendance is considered a “must” for presidential candidates. Failure to attend is perceived as a “slap in the face” to Catholics. In the 90-year history of the event only one presidential candidate has ever declined to attend. That was Walter Mondale, the Dem candidate for president, in 1984. Coincidentally or not, in the ensuing election Mondale only won one state. Harris claimed she was campaigning, but the truth of the matter is she was already on thin ice with Catholics. She and her far left base are hardcore pro-choice and have been very critical of pro-lifers who have investigated and criticized what they considered to be Planned Parenthood’s “barbarism” toward women who choose to seek alternatives to abortion.

CONCLUSION

It was not a good week for Harris. Her campaign aides and allies in the media will likely try to spin it, but by any objective analysis her attempt to use the Bret Baer interview to widen her appeal had the opposite effect.

Likewise, Catholics will perceive her spurning the Al Smith Dinner as an insult.

All that said, the polls released in the last couple of days did not show any discernable movement. The race is still too close to call. Most everyone agrees it will be determined by the turnout for each candidate.

GET OUT AND VOTE!

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2024 ELECTION UPDATE – LATEST TRENDS AND STATUS OF SENATE RACES

Heretofore, my major focus has been on the presidential race and rightly so. As I write this, the various national polls report Harris with a slight one-to-two-point lead. These polls are mostly irrelevant since the winner is determined by electoral votes, but they do provide some incite as to trends and momentum. Furthermore, they reveal why multiple media outlets have been reporting that the Harris campaign is very concerned, if not panicked. More on that below.

For example:

  1. Harris has been leading Trump in the national polls, but lately her lead has been shrinking. For example, the most recent ABC/Ipsos poll disclosed Harris’ lead to be two points, down from six points last month; CBS News/You Gov reported Harris with a three-point lead versus four points last month; and RealClear reported 1.4% versus 2.2% just a few days ago. These may not seem like significant changes, but in such a close race one should be cognizant of the trend they indicate. Remember, in my last blog I described the significance of momentum in an election.
  2. Multiple polls have reported that Harris is losing support among Blacks and Hispanics, particularly males. This is not surprising since as I have written in previous blogs these groups favor Trump’s policies over Harris’, especially with respect to the economy, crime and illegal immigration. The latest NY Times/Siena and NY Post polls reported that Dem support among Blacks has declined from 90% in 2020 to 78%. Similarly, support among Hispanics has declined to 56%. Even though the Dems have been trying to scare Hispanics with Trump’s “get tough” policies regarding illegal immigrants, including deportation, they are not buying it. Polls show that 67% of Hispanics born in the US and 51% born in another country don’t believe those harsh policies will pertain to them. Both of these demographics have long been bellwether Dem supporters, but both groups have come to realize that the Dems are no longer delivering on campaign promises. Their primary complaints are regarding the economy/inflation, crime and illegal immigration.
  3. Prior to these surveys being published there were multiple media reports that Dems’ internal polls were indicating Harris was losing ground in the swing states and among Blacks and Hispanics. Political Journalist Mark Halperin denoted “there are a lot of really worried Democrats, and there are no really worried Republicans.”
  4. Across all demographics Harris is polling better among women and Trump is polling better among men.
  5. Multiple polls have reported that Trump is gaining in most of the swing states. The latest Redfield & Wilton survey of voters in GA and PA showed Trump to be up 1% in GA and 2% in PA. Again, although the margins are tiny and within the margin of error, they indicate a significant improvement compared to 2020 when Trump lost both GA and PA in tight races. These results are another indication of the shift in momentum towards Trump. If these leads hold up on ED and Trump also wins the other states in which he is currently leading, he will win the election.
  6. According to the NY Post more people who voted for Biden in 2020 have gravitated to Trump than to Harris. This is somewhat surprising since Harris, like Biden, is a Dem. Perhaps, it is an indication of the realization that Harris is a weaker candidate than Biden was in 2020. In the crucial states of PA and GA Trump is beating Harris in acquiring formerly Biden voters 12% to 6% and 13% to 11%, respectively. Again, this might not seem like much, but given the extremely tight races in those states, it is significant. Voters in both states identified the economy/inflation as their primary concern.
  7. Multiple media outlets have reported that Biden has been providing only tepid support for Harris. Apparently, he is resentful of the manner in which he was replaced by Harris. He feels he is still the better candidate, and his candidacy was sabotaged. For example, he has declined to attend some of her campaign events, and he was seen wearing a “Trump 2024” cap at a recent campaign event. Jason Meister, a strategist on the Trump campaign was blunter, saying “Biden is intentionally enacting revenge on Kamala for knifing him in the back.”
  8. Harris, whose campaign strategy had been to say as little as possible and only grant interviews with “friendly” journalists has recently agreed to appear on Fox News to be interviewed by Bret Baer. Baer will be fair, but it will not be a “softball” interview. She will likely have to explain her policies, in detail, including why they have changed since she became the nominee. This could be problematic for her, so I can only conclude that she is afraid, maybe even “panicked,” that she is losing. Prospectively, she may be forced to grant additional interviews outside of her comfort zone.
  9. The Senate could be a major issue. In my view, it is essential for the GOP to gain control of it in order to prevent the Dems from blocking legislation or even impeaching Trump like they did after the 2016 election. Presently, the Dems have slight control over the Senate – 51 (including two independents) to 49. Therefore, the GOP has to flip a net of two seats to obtain control (one if Trump were to win). According to multiple media reports West Virginia is virtually a “lock” due to Joe Manchin’s retirement. Montana is a good possibility as well. However, the Dems have a chance to flip Texas, where Ted Cruz is clinging to a narrow lead, and Nebraska. There are several other close races as well, so we’ll see what happens.

CONCLUSION

The presidential race remains tight. There are many states, including the swing states, where the polls report the margins to be very tight, well within the margin for error. The GOP has the momentum, but a lot can happen in the next few weeks to change the outcome. The GOP cannot be overconfident. Get out and vote!

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2024 PRESIDENTIAL UPDATE. MO FAVORS TRUMP.

Historically, momentum has proven to be a powerful force in elections. Often it is unrecognized or undervalued in the polls – until Election Day when the underdog who has been behind in the polls pulls an unforeseen upset. That is one of the axioms behind the famous expression that “the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day.” In recent history two examples of this phenomenon were Harry Truman defeating Dewey in 1948 and Donald Trump defeating Clinton in 2016. On the rare occasions when this occurs the winners are jubilant; the losers are shocked; and the “experts” are confounded. Who can forget the post-election visage of a grinning Truman holding aloft an early edition of the next day’s Chicago Daily Tribune boldly proclaiming, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”

Presently, all the polls indicate that the election remains very close as it has been for several months. In the national poll, which is essentially meaningless, the latest Guardian poll reports Harris ahead by two points 48% – 46%. It’s worth noting that the Guardian’s previous poll had Harris up by 4%, so Trump would appear to have some momentum.

More importantly, let’s consider the seven swing states that will actually decide the election – AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI. The latest Emerson and Real Clear Politics polls are consistently reporting that Trump has a slight one or two-point lead in AZ, GA, NV, NC, and PA, and the two are tied in MI and WI. This represents an improvement for Trump compared to the 2020 election and earlier 2024 polls, another hint that Trump is gaining momentum.

Pollster Matt Towery, Insider Advantage, noted that Trump is gaining with African Americans and Hispanics due to the economy and immigration issues. Hispanic citizens, in particular whose forebears emigrated legally, resent the illegal immigrants’ “jumping the line.” This is the opposite of what the Dems no doubt intended with their open-door policy. Ironically, the Dems are being “hoisted on their own petard.” Towery added that the Administration’s inadequate response to hurricanes Helene and Milton was another negative.

Pollster Robert Cahaly (Trafalgar Group) denoted that the polls may be undervaluing Trump. He speculated that there may be a “hidden vote” for him. Other polls may differ very slightly but taken as a whole the polls are indicating that Trump appears to have the momentum.

There is palpable pessimism among the Harris supporters. One senior Dem source apprised the NY Post that the Dems were “not in a Blue Wall panic… but they were concerned.” MI Dem Rep Elise Slotkin acknowledged “we have her underwater in our polling.”

Below please find what I consider to be the key recent developments based on multiple media reports:

  1. Trump is on the right side of the issues that voters have opined concerns them the most in this election – the economy, inflation, the border/illegal immigration, crime and security. The numbers with respect to these issues speak for themselves and cannot be explained away by the Dems with vague generalities, platitudes, and anti-Trump utterances.
  2. The electorate is gradually becoming cognizant that Harris’ reluctance to disclose her specific views on the issues is because she is hiding them in order to get elected. Her real views as expressed over her entire political career prior to becoming the nominee are so far to the left as to be downright scary. Even though she has given a few tv interviews recently with friendly journalists she has not acquitted herself well. She is still prone to giving rambling, non-responsive answers. In her recent interview with 60 Minutes a few of her answers were so embarrassing that the network had to edit them before showing them on tv.
  3. Based on polls in the swing states Trump is gaining among men, particularly Black and Hispanic men. Traditionally, Dem candidates have held decisive edges with these groups, but there are signs of much concern this year. For instance, recently the Harris campaign has launched ads aimed specifically aimed at Black and Hispanic men. Various observers, such as TX Rep Wesley Hunt, are predicting that Trump will have “the highest male Black vote of any Republican president[ial candidate] in modern history.” According to a recent NAACP survey 25% of Black men under 50 disclosed they would vote for Trump. This may not seem like much, but it represents a sizeable increase over previous election cycles.
  4. As a further indication of the extent of the Dems’ concerns regarding the above trends former President Obama in a recent speech actually lectured Blacks that it is “not acceptable for Black men to support Trump.” In addition, he asserted (incorrectly) that Black men are opposed to Harris based on her gender. I don’t believe that this insulting, demeaning and highhanded attitude will help the Dems with male Blacks.
  5. Moreover, local radio host Dan O’Donnell reported to the NY Post that the Harris campaign has taken the unusual tact of targeting Blacks in Philadelphia by advertising on hip-hop radio stations in the area.
  6. The NY Post reported that Black men such as Rafael Smith, a former Harris supporter from MI, has switched to Trump because he feels the Dems have taken his and other Blacks’ support for granted “just because [Harris] is a woman of color.” He said “I don’t really think they’re looking at what she has done within the last 3 1/2 years…”
  7. Another implication of concern among Dems is the appearance of former president Bill Clinton. The so-called “Big Dog” has commenced campaigning in NC and GA.
  8. Harris has committed to participate in a town hall interview on October 23 that will be hosted by CNN. As we all know, a town hall format is not exactly in her wheelhouse. In my view, this is a further illustration of her concern that her campaign is flailing.
  9. Trump has expressed his views and intentions on the issues very clearly. For example, he will not “pussyfoot” around with illegals, particularly those who have committed crimes against Americans. He states that his Administration “will either ‘put these vicious and bloodthirsty criminals in jail or get them the hell out of our country.’ ” He has even floated the idea of invoking the seldom-used Alien Enemies Act of 1798, which authorizes the president to “apprehend, restrain, secure and remove [those who] are deemed a threat to the US during wartime.” This language may be extreme or even illegal, but it resonates with those who are sick and tired of illegal aliens strutting into the US unrestrained and then preying upon US citizens.
  10. Trump has made other promises that show he is cognizant of voters’ major concerns. For example, he will “drill, baby drill;” he will deal more aggressively with Iran; and he will support Israel more strongly in its war against Iran and its terrorist proxies. He will not tax overtime pay or tips; he will eliminate the double taxation being levied against Americans living and working abroad; he will make interest on car loans tax deductible; and he will extend the Trump tax cuts that are scheduled to expire in 2025. These will primarily benefit middle class and working-class voters, which counters the Dem’s claim that his policies favor the wealthy.
  11. Despite multiple credible plots reported against him and two actual assassination attempts the government has still not acceded to all of the Trump campaign’s requests for enhanced security. Some Trump supporters have seriously questioned why, insinuating it may be part of a sinister assassination plot to leave Trump exposed.

CONCLUSION

As I said above, it appears that Trump has grabbed the momentum. He knows it; the Harris campaign knows it; you know it; and I know it. Just look at the substantial and enthusiastic crowds he draws wherever he goes. Just look at the signs of concern or even panic in the Harris campaign as delineated above.

Whether it’s due to a bias in the polling or the reluctance of some supporters to admit they will be voting for Trump, remember his appeal was undervalued in the polls in both 2016 and to a lesser extent in 2020. One caveat is that the election is far from over. A lot can happen between now and ED to swing the election, but at the present time it’s looking good.

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THE RECENT ESCALATION OF ANTISEMITISM

In the past couple of years I have posted several blogs detailing the state of antisemitism both in the US and the world at large. I believe that the one-year anniversary of the brutal and heinous surprise attack by Hamas against Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023 is an appropriate time to review and update the issue. We are all familiar with the repulsive details of those heinous terrorist attacks and the resultant war. There is no need to repeat it all here. One might say the attack was Israel’s 9/11.

Rather than generating sympathy for the victims the attack seems to have unleashed a level of antisemitism not seen since the 1930s and 1940s. Below please find my analysis of the root causes of this, citations of some of the numerous examples, and a warning to American Jews.

  1. Without repeating what I have posted in some detail in previous blogs suffice to say that the root causes of antisemitism go back some 5,000 years. Jews have always been perceived as being “different,” different religion, different God, different day of worship, different appearance, and different customs. People tend to mistrust and even hate those who are different.
  2. Throughout history Jews have been persecuted (e. g. the Spanish Inquisition, the pogroms of Russia and Poland, and of course the Holocaust.
  3. Until the advent of the State of Israel in 1948 Jews did not have a land of their own, a land where they would be safe and secure. Wherever they lived they were subject to the whims of that country’s rulers.
  4. Many, if not most, rulers were not welcoming. Some were even downright hostile. Others would tolerate Jews for a time. One reason was that in times of strife, for example, a plague or a famine or other misfortune Jews would provide a handy scapegoat. By blaming the Jews rulers would be able to distract the masses from their own culpability and their own miserable existence. For instance, Jews co-existed in harmony and prosperity in Germany for some 500 years before the rise of the Nazis who found them to be a convenient scapegoat for Germany’s post-WWI misery.
  5. More recently, Jews have lived in the US in peace and prosperity since its founding. They have grown secure and complacent, and they are not aware that it can all be taken away. Many of them are oblivious to the depth of antisemitism extant in the US and the world in general. History has demonstrated that it can all be taken away either violently or gradually so that one would not notice until it was too late.
  6. With respect to the war in the ME both the Jews and the Muslims consider Jerusalem and the surrounding area to be their “Holy Land,” and they have fought numerous wars for the control of it over thousands of years.
  7. The Muslim terrorists dispute the validity of the State of Israel and want to obliterate both it and the Jews who inhabit it. They have made no secret about it. Hamas has included that goal in its charter. Furthermore, that is the meaning of the chant “from the river to the sea, the Holy Land will be free.”
  8. On the other hand, the Jews are determined to destroy Hamas, Hezbollah and the other terrorist groups as a fighting force decisively once and for all.
  9. The Israelis don’t want a ceasefire at this time. They are winning, and they want to finish the job. They know that if they don’t, they will just have to fight another war in the future, and another, and another, and another. Eventually, they may lose one, and then it would Sayonara.
  10. Neither side is in favor of the much-ballyhooed two-state solution. Hamas would not honor any ceasefire anyway. They would just use it as a chance to regroup and rearm for the next war.
  11. The smart strategy for BH would be to support Israel 100%, get out of its way, and let it finish the job, but as one can see it is not doing that. I believe it is either out of ignorance, a desire to placate the antisemitic left wing of the Dem Party, or a combination of the two. In addition, they lifted the Trump sanctions against Iran, which very effective. Iran was practically broke. Instead BH’s policy has provided it with untold billions of dollars of oil money that it is using to fund the terrorists. That is an ill-advised policy, geopolitically, economically and militarily. Israel is our only dependable ally in the volatile and strategically critical ME. BH’s policy has actually lengthened the war and endangered the lives of the hostages.
  12. BH have urged Israel to show “restraint” in its response. They have provided Israel with only tepid support to avoid offending the radical left wing of the Dem party.
  13. Incredibly, the bulk of world opinion is against Israel. It was the one that was brutally attacked, yet most of the world’s sympathy has been directed toward the Palestinians. Obviously, that is because of antisemitism. In the history of the world Israel is the only country that was attacked that was then urged to show restraint or even standdown.

That brings us to the main subject of the blog, the alarming expansion of antisemitism in the US and the world. There are a plethora of examples of this, but I will only cite a few to illustrate my point.

  1. Recently, the NY Post reported that 61% of American Jews claim they have “faced bigotry” since last October 7.
  2. According to a recently released survey by the National Opinion Research Council at the University of Chicago 3.5 million Jews have reported that they were victimized by antisemitism in some manner during the past year. This includes violent crimes such as rape and assault and threats such as targeting synagogues, homes and/or businesses with swastikas, graffiti and the like.
  3. Approximately 25% of the respondents expressed fear or reluctance over identifying themselves as Jews, for example by wearing particular clothing or jewelry.
  4. Roughly 40% of college students responded that they felt “uncomfortable” or unsafe at a “campus event.”
  5. Nearly 30% felt that they had been “excluded from a group or event.”
  6. The Anti-Defamation League disclosed that there have been in excess of 150 occasions of “physical assault,” approximately 1,840 instances of “vandalism” and about 8,000 incidents of “written or verbal abuse” against Jews in the past year. Approximately 1,200 of these incidents occurred on college campuses. To put these numbers in some context they represent a 200% increase over the prior year. 200%!
  7. If you know your history you will recognize this as being reminiscent of what occurred in Germany in the 1930s and early 1940s.
  8. What I have described has not been limited to the US. The UN has long exhibited feelings of antisemitism. The membership includes many Islamic countries that have long been sympathetic to the Palestinian or even terrorist viewpoints. Moreover, recently French President Emmanuel Macron has been advocating cutting off arms shipments to Israel. It is important to understand that there are only 15.8 million Jews in the world whereas the Muslim population is 1.8 billion, and a goodly number of them live in the US and various European countries where they wield some political influence. Even though relatively few of them are radicalized, I believe most of the moderates are still sympathetic to the Palestinian cause.

CONCLUSION

The heinous nature of the October 7 attacks should have generated some sympathy for Israel and Jews in general. In fact, as demonstrated above, the opposite has occurred. It has unleashed latent, covert antisemitism, which I believe has always been lurking just below the surface, like an inactive volcano, waiting to explode. The outpouring of blatant, overt antisemitism in the last year is no coincidence.

BH have done nothing to quell the antisemitism either on college campuses or in general. Nor has Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who is Jewish. They have not pushed back against politicians like Ilhan Omar who have continually expressed antisemitic views. They have not provided support to the US Jewish community. They speak in vague generalities and platitudes, but as I keep saying, actions speak louder than words.

Schumer’s case has been particularly disturbing to me. He is one of the most powerful and influential politicians in the country. He represents NY State, which is heavily Jewish. He, of all people, should be advocating for Israel and the Jews. Instead, he has done the opposite by criticizing Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu’s prosecution of the war, even calling for him to resign. As I wrote in a previous blog in my opinion, his actions have been despicable.

In my view, the main takeaway from the current climate is that we Jews are not as safe and secure as we think we are in the US or anywhere else. This is no time to be complacent. We have an election next month. Historically, a majority of Jews has voted for Dems, and for the most part they have delivered. However, the BH administration has not supported Jews. They have not been loyal to us. Why should we continue to be loyal to them. When Trump was president, he was a staunch supporter of Israel. In addition, he has exhibited the conviction and strength of character to support Israel regardless of world opinion and to stand up to the antisemites extant in the US. In my view, it is time to switch and vote for the GOP.

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MIGRANTS OR CITIZENS?

It may not always seem that way, but the federal government has a finite amount of money. It cannot fund everything. So, which group should get preference for assistance, migrants or citizens? Most of you probably think that is a “trick” question. It seems like a no-brainer. Of course, US citizens should get preference when it comes to government largesse.

Unfortunately, under the Biden-Harris Administration (“BH”) that has not always been the case. We have all heard the news reports of illegal immigrants receiving a cornucopia of free stuff, such as food stamps, free lodging in luxury hotels, free flights directly into the US often in the middle of the night, free education, and free medical care, among others. The list of freebies is much more extensive than that, but you get the point. What are the sources of funding for this largesse? Federal? States? Local? I’m not sure, but it is probably from a combination of the three. Meanwhile, some states and local governments are heading for bankruptcy, and the federal government is running deficits that are unsustainable.

In many locales the sheer volume of illegals has overwhelmed social services to the detriment of opportunities for American children, particularly with respect to education, social services, health services, and recreational opportunities. Moreover, the government doesn’t seem to have enough funds or doesn’t care to provide basic services to many military veterans. All too often, the Dems have demonstrated a preference to take care of the needs of illegal migrants over those of American citizens.

In the last few days, in the wake of Hurricane Helene a more unbelievable situation has been exposed. As we all know, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (“FEMA”) is responsible for assisting victims of disasters such as hurricanes. tornadoes, floods, and the like. Typically, these victims are in the most dire of circumstances. They have lost their homes and their personal property. They may need emergency rescue from rubble or flood waters. They may be unable to locate loved ones. They are without basic services such as food, water, shelter, medicine and internet services. As I write this it is being reported that some 700,000 homes and businesses are still without power, approximately one week after Helene passed through. This is unbelievable and unacceptable.

People are overwrought. In short, they are suffering through the worst times of their lives. They need emergency help, and they need it NOW, not tomorrow, not next week, not next month, NOW. In times such as this they rely on FEMA to provide those services. Hours matter. Days matter. Often, this is life or death.

That brings us to the current situation, the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. The following is based on multiple media reports. Helene was one of the most devastating storms in recent years. So far, it ranks as #4 in the US since 1950. It has wreaked havoc and devastation throughout the southeast, affecting six states – FL, GA, NC, SC, TN and VA.

According to published reports at least 200 are known dead, and that number is expected to rise substantially as more bodies are discovered in the rubble and in currently inaccessible areas. Many more are injured or missing. The total damage to property is incalculable at this time. Some houses are buried waist deep in mud. Many cannot or will not be rebuilt. Over 150,000 households have already requested assistance, and according to FEMA spokesman Frank Matranga many more will be doing so. NC Governor Roy Cooper reported that entire towns have been “wiped off the map.” As if that isn’t bad enough many claimants have no or inadequate hurricane damage insurance.

I see two overriding problems. Firstly, FEMA has been slow to provide relief services to many of the areas of devastation, particularly remote areas of North Carolina in and around the Blue Ridge Mountains. As I said, the devastation wrought by Helene was widespread, covering several states including many areas that are relatively inaccessible. That said, FEMA has not done its job. The relief effort appears to be disorganized. People are dying for lack of assistance. FEMA should be doing more.

In the meantime, there have been reports that rather than accepting assistance wherever and whenever it is offered FEMA has actually been slow-walking or even blocking some relief efforts initiated by private citizens. For example, it’s been reported that FEMA has been slow-walking or even blocking Elon Musk’s efforts to restore internet communications in affected areas through his Starlink satellite system. This would be unconscionable.

The other overriding problem is that according to multiple media reports FEMA is running out of funds. It may not have sufficient funds to respond to Hurricane Helene, which is ominous in and of itself. But, even worse, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who supervises the agency, has told reporters that FEMA will not have enough for the rest of the hurricane season, which runs from June 1 – November 30. He stated, “we are expecting another hurricane hitting. …We do not have the funds to make it through the season and what is imminent.”

Biden, Harris and Trump have all toured the area to assess the damage firsthand. Fine, but that is little comfort to those affected. According to Biden it will cost “billions of dollars to deal with this storm and all the communities affected.” Where will the funding come from? It will come from Congress, of course, in the form of a supplemental bill, but the lawmakers will have to act quickly and decisively, two traits they are not known for. Furthermore, Congress will not be back in session until after ED. The leadership will have to figure out a way to get it passed before then. And that is just for Helene. I agree with Mayorkas that we should expect and anticipate other hurricanes before the end of the season.

But that begs the bigger question. Where is the money that is supposed to have been available right now. Congress provides FEMA’s funding every year. The agency gets an operating budget and a disaster relief fund. The funding is to be used to pay for relief from natural disasters such as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes and the like. In addition, the money is to be allocated to pay for rebuilding from past disasters and to protect communities proactively from prospective disasters. When and if its funds run low it can and does request Congress for “immediate needs funding.” Congress recently approved an additional $20 million for this, but apparently it is mostly gone.

One might ask, how could this happen? What is the remedy? Where has the funding gone? Why didn’t FEMA anticipate this shortfall and request sufficient funding before? Why delay until it’s a crisis? Good questions.

Like most everything else, the answer appears to be political. According to the NY Post, Fox News, various GOP politicians, including Donald Trump, and outside observers such as Elon Musk a major reason for the shortfall is that BH have authorized diverting some $641 million in the current year from FEMA’s emergency fund to pay for various services for migrants. During the last two years the figure is reported to amount to around $1.4 billion. According to the NY Post the DHS has admitted that it “allocated” funds from FEMA’s Shelter and Services Program for funding migrants’ needs.

If this is correct it is downright scandalous and perhaps illegal. In any event, it is another clear case of the Dem government giving preference to illegal migrants over US citizens. Rep Matt Gaetz has reported that his office has received multiple reports from “whistle blowers” confirming this misuse of funds.

Meanwhile according to multiple media reports FEMA has offered affected families $750 for groceries. That paltry amount won’t begin to cover a family’s needs.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott urged Mayorkas and FEMA to “immediately stop spending money on illegal immigration resettlement and redirect those funds to areas hit by [Helene]. Put Americans first.” He is not alone. Congressman Jim Jordan was more blunt. “The Biden-Harris administration took more than a billion tax dollars that had been allocated to FEMA for disaster relief and used it to house illegal aliens. … They’ve abandoned American hurricane victims in NC, GA, FL, SC, and TN [and VA].” Their remarks were echoed by many others.

The Dems and their allies in the media deny these allegations, but I believe them. It is plausible to me. All that migrant money had to come from somewhere, and the feds have been known to play games with interagency funding before.

CONCLUSION

This is another example of the incompetence and deception of the BH Administration. They secretly reallocated funds to pay for migrant services. In doing so, they have severely depleted FEMA’s funds. They acted surreptitiously hoping that no one would find out, because they knew it would be very unpopular, very damaging politically, and possibly illegal. Now, it appears that there may not be sufficient funds to care for Americans who have been devastated by Hurricane Helene, and there is a risk that there will not be sufficient funds for prospective natural disasters this year. They figuratively got caught with their hand in the cookie jar.

The Dems and their allies in the media are denying this, but they have lied about many other things in the past few years, so I don’t think they should get the benefit of the doubt in this case. I would like Congress to commence an investigation into this matter to ascertain the perpetrators of this gross misuse of funds.

Moreover, we should keep in mind that the election is only one month away. In my last blog I opined that the manner in which KK handles this and the other three serious problems I discussed – the dockworkers’ strike and the wars in Ukraine and the ME – would have a profound effect on the election. She could be a hero or a zero. She dodged a bullet with the dockworkers’ strike with a temporary settlement. Good for her. But so far it appears that her handling of this issue will damage her prospects. Two of the devastated states, Georgia and NC, are swing states, and people will likely remember her incompetence on ED.

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VANCE-WALZ DEBATE

Last Tuesday, October 1, the first, and probably only, debate between VP nominees J. D. Vance and Tim Walz was telecast on CBS. The network reported that an estimated 43 million persons watched it. This sounds like a lot, but it was a sizeable decrease from the estimated 58 million who watched the 2020 VP nominee debate between Mike Pence and Kamala Harris.

For the most part, as one might expect, the post-debate analysis of who won followed along party lines. As I said after the Trump-Harris debate the key is not who “won,” but the post-debate effect on the polls. Often, they are not synchronized. So far, the post-debate polls have moved slightly in favor of Trump, but the race remains extremely close, and an unforeseen external event could be decisive. More on this below.

My analysis and opinion of the debate is as follows:

  1. Both candidates were unusually cordial to one another. There was some animosity but not nearly to the level of other debates. It was almost as if the two of them were going out for a beer after the debate.
  2. In general, Vance seemed more polished, more professional, more presidential and in better command of the facts and issues. On the other hand, Walz came across as uncomfortable, nervous and jittery. A few times he exhibited a “deer in the headlights” look.
  3. Once again, the moderators were biased in favor of the Dem. For example, even though all parties had agreed that the moderators would remain neutral and refrain from fact-checking they did so to Vance on a few occasions. Finally, he had to remind them that it had been agreed beforehand they wouldn’t do so.
  4. I objected to the selection of questions. For example, there was no question regarding the violent protests in 2020 that wreaked destruction on many cities, including Minneapolis. As you may recall, Walz had resisted requesting assistance from the MN National Guard for several days. Moreover, he and his wife kept the windows in their home open the better to see, hear and smell the protests and fires in Minneapolis. How weird was that? There was no mention of Walz’ “stolen valor.” He retired from his Guard unit (essentially quit) when he heard it was going to deploy overseas, which has drawn much rancor from other members of his unit. Finally, there was no question on fracking, which is one of, if not the, key issues in the key swing state of PA. These were all issues on which Harris-Walz was vulnerable. I would have loved to hear Walz’s explanation regarding them.
  5. Walz had two particularly bad moments. He uttered two sound bites that people will remember, even those who did not watch the debate. They will likely be repeated over and over again on social media and in political advertisements. (1) He confused a trip to China with one to Hong Kong. That was when he uttered his soon to be famous “knucklehead” comment. The second one was when he stated he had become “friendly” with “school shooters.”
  6. Walz’s best moment occurred with respect to the 2020 election. Vance was reluctant to acknowledge that Trump had lost, but he did denote that Trump had asked demonstrators going to the capitol to protest “peacefully and patriotically” and that Trump had repeatedly requested additional security, which was denied.
  7. The Dems continue to bring up two issues about which they lie – the 2025 Project and abortion. Trump has repeatedly denied any knowledge of or involvement with Project 2025, and he has reiterated time and again that pursuant to SCOTUS’ recent ruling the issue of abortion has been relegated to each state where the voters will decide that state’s policy. Give it up, already!
  8. Walz was weak regarding the ME conflict. He refused to state that Harris’ support for Israel was “iron clad.” Vance pointed out that there had been no conflicts during Trump’s presidency.
  9. The analyses of most commentators fell along party lines, although the NY Times opined that “Vance dominated the debate,” and some members of CNN’s post-debate round table said they were “disappointed” with Walz’s performance. Full disclosure: CNN disclosed that according to its post-debate instant poll there was no “clear-cut” winner.
  10. On the GOP side, Newt Gingrich was particularly effusive in rating Vance’s performance. He commented that he (Vance) showed “exactly how to do it (the debate).” He added that Vance “handled the [biased] moderators [well] and vindicated Trump’s judgment in picking him [as his running mate.”
  11. The implication was that Harris exhibited poor judgement in selecting Walz. That renewed speculation that PA Governor Josh Shapiro would have been the better choice, but he was passed over to appease the antisemitic leftwing of the party.
  12. Initial post-debate polls have shown a slight movement in favor of Trump, but the race remains extremely close with any advantages in the swing states still within the margin for error. Matt Towery, pollster and Fox News political analyst, declared that Vance had the better performance, and that Trump should receive a “bump” (in the polls).
  13. Robert Cahaly, chief pollster for the Trafalgar Group, was particularly impressed with the manner in which Vance handled the issue of climate change. Vance had pointed out that if Harris and her allies truly cared about the effect of fossil fuels on the environment, they would seek to use American-produced energy as it is much cleaner and more environment-friendly than energy produced elsewhere.

CONCLUSION

I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on the VP debate. All the polls say the election remains a virtual dead heat. There is still a month to go before ED, although early voting has already commenced in some states.

History tells us that a lot can happen between now and ED to influence the election. For example, there are four current events – the destruction wrought by Hurricane Helene, the war in the ME, the war in Ukraine, and the dockworkers’ strike – any one of which could have a decisive effect. Harris has the chance to boost her candidacy or doom it depending on how she handles them.

Also, there could be some unforeseen event such as a 9/11-style terror attack, another deadly natural disaster or some other unforeseen event. For example, some of you may recall Superstorm Sandy, which occurred on October 29, 2012 and had a significant impact on the 2012 election.

This is a most critical election, and all indications are that it will be historically close and go down to the wire. Stay tuned.

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KOMRADE KAMALA’S RADICAL TAX PLAN

Komrade Kamala (“KK”) has proposed a radical new tax plan. Like many socialist proposals at first, it appears to be attractive but upon detailed analysis the luster fades rapidly, and the warts become evident. As always, “the devil is in the details” and one must beware of unintended consequences. Read on, and I will explain.

Essentially, KK’s plan is a wealth tax, and its intent is a redistribution of wealth. This is consistent with classic socialist/communist doctrine, which should not be surprising given Harris’ real “core values” that she espoused during her entire political career until she became the Dem nominee for president. Many of its provisions are consistent with the proposed Ultra-Millionaire Tax Bill of 2021, which was sponsored by Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and other far-lefties. That particular bill was not passed for various reasons, but the general idea of it is still popular with the far left.

As I have explained repeatedly, at her core KK is a socialist/communist. Her basic instincts are to replace capitalism and free enterprise with government administration and control in virtually all aspects of one’s life. She has advocated replacing our capitalist economic system, which is based on free enterprise, competition and private sector decision-making, with public sector (government) decision-making. For example, she has been advocating government-administered price controls in the economy to eliminate what she perceives as “price gouging” even though there has been no evidence of it. Similarly, under the guise of providing everyone, including illegal aliens, access to free healthcare she has been advocating an aggressive revamping our healthcare system to a single-payer system that would be administered and controlled by the federal government. Her proposed tax plan would be consistent with those precepts. As we have seen time and time again, anything administered by the government becomes plagued with inefficiency and waste.

Like most tax plans hers is complicated. Moreover, it is too vague and not well reasoned. Even proponents of the general idea should realize that there are a multitude of rough edges that need to be clarified. Like I said above, the devil is in the details and beware of unintended consequences. Below please find my opinions and comments regarding KK’s tax plan.

With respect to the “wealth tax” provision:

  1. According to the Tax Foundation such a tax has never been implemented in the US. A handful of other countries have tried it, but most were forced to abandon it due to unforeseen problems.
  2. The proposal would penalize savers, discourage economic growth, discourage entrepreneurship and investment in start-ups, decrease employment, and increase the trade deficit, among other ramifications.
  3. For starters, according to Wikipedia the paramount issue is that some legal scholars question the constitutionality of such a tax. Article I, Section 9 of the US Constitution precludes any “capitation or other direct tax.” Because of this clause in 1895 SCOTUS declared that a federal income tax was unconstitutional. Subsequently, Congress passed the 16th Amendment, which made a federal income tax constitutional, however, the amendment did not cover a “wealth tax.” This matter would have to be resolved or else the proposal would be “dead on arrival.”
  4. Its primary purpose is to eliminate, or at least substantially reduce, the wealth gap by mandating that the uber-wealthy pay their “fair share.” What does that phrase even mean? What would constitute a “fair share?” It is so vague as to be meaningless. Is it a higher percentage? If so, how high? Also, how does one define “wealthy” or “uber-wealthy? I suppose all that depends on one’s economic status and one’s political point of view. But you can see how the murkiness complicates the issue.
  5. It is fashionable, in some quarters to want to punish the rich for being rich. These people want to take away some of their wealth and spread it around. This ignores the fact that income and wealth disparity is a natural consequence of our free market, capitalist system. Some people will always be more ambitious, more industrious, smarter, more willing to take chances to succeed, or just be luckier than others. Our system rewards that. The attitude of the masses should not be to confiscate wealth from the rich, but to aspire to become rich, themselves.
  6. In my view, “equality” means “equal opportunity.” It does not advocate some sort of balancing act where the rich keep giving and the needy keep taking until everyone has an equal amount of wealth. That is fatuous on its face. History tells us it cannot be legislated. Even in Russia there is a small group of rich and superrich persons, and the vast majority are poor.
  7. In the opinion of former Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, the cost of implementation, administration and enforcement of a wealth tax would be extremely expensive, cumbersome and problematic.
  8. How would assets be valued, particularly illiquid ones such as land, a farm, a ranch or a business? In my opinion, this would be the most inequitable and troublesome aspect of KK’s proposal. Taxpayers would be required to pay tax based on an unrealized gain with respect to assets that they had not sold. Therefore, they might be forced to sell their business, farm, ranch, or house to raise the money to pay the tax. This particular provision was most troublesome to the Tax Foundation as well.
  9. Furthermore, who would ascribe a value, the owner, the IRS, a government bureaucrat with limited knowledge of the worth of the asset, or someone else? This would be a particularly troublesome issue.
  10. I presume the IRS would enforce the tax. That would also be problematic. Public confidence in the fairness and competence of the IRS is at an all-time low, and no one would want more government intrusion in their lives.
  11. Inevitably, the wealthy would find and exploit loopholes. They always do. Consequently, there would be contested valuations and lawsuits with all the ancillary problems.
  12. Some wealthy would be tempted to transfer assets out of the country or perhaps relocate. Such people have the wherewithal to do so. The question is would they have the motivation? This became a problem in other countries that had enacted a wealth tax, which ultimately forced them to abandon it. For example, in 2018 France’s President Emmanuel Macron noted that it had resulted in brain drain, loss of jobs, and flight of capital. This could be negated by including an “exit tax” in the proposal, although I’m not sure how it would work or if it would even be legal.
  13. Very likely, it would discourage foreign investment in businesses, real estate and the like.

In addition to the aforementioned wealth tax KK’s tax proposal would raise tax rates on corporations. Presently, thanks to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (“TCJA”) enacted during the Trump presidency the US has a very competitive corporate tax rate of 21%. This encourages both domestic corporations to remain in the US and foreign corporations to invest here. That translates to economic growth and lower unemployment.

In addition, the TCJA reduced individual tax rates. Unfortunately, the TCJA is set to expire in 2025, and KK will be unlikely to extend it. Therefore, the corporate tax rate will revert to its pre-TCJA level of 35%. Consequently, corporations will be incentivized to invest elsewhere rather than in the US. Also, corporations typically pass on such tax increases to you, the consumer, in the form of higher prices, which feeds inflation. More bad news, individual tax rates will also revert to pre-UCJA levels, which means a top rate of 39.6%.

CONCLUSION

Frankly speaking, the KK tax plan would be an unmitigated disaster for most individuals and the US economy as a whole. Don’t be seduced by her “mantra of tax the rich” and make them “pay their fair share.” As I said, this is a typical lefty idea. It sounds good on the surface, but it would lead to unforeseen problems in practice. If one takes the time to analyze it in detail the warts become apparent. It’s just a ploy to divert your attention away from the disastrous Biden-Harris economic policies of the last 3 1/2 years.


KK thinks that her plan will raise more revenue to pay off the deficit. In my opinion, it will have the opposite effect. Directly as a result of the Biden-Harris Administration’s wild, irresponsible deficit spending, notably the stimulus packages that were enacted against the advice of even progressive economists, the budget deficit is already projected to exceed $2 trillion this year. Moreover, absent policy changes it is projected to double to $4 trillion within ten years. Folks, this level of spending is unsustainable.

She and her advisors who developed this proposal have demonstrated repeatedly that they know next to nothing about economics and business. It’s astounding but true. History tells us unequivocally that tax increases stifle economic growth, and tax reductions spur economic growth. Growth actually results in increased revenues. Many of you will remember the Reagan Tax Cuts, which illustrate my point. Don’t be gaslighted.

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