The contents of this blog are a compendium of information gleaned from multiple media sources. Any content that is my opinion is noted as such.
As of today, October 1, the Federal government is shut down due to Congress’ failure to pass a CR to extend the federal government’s funding for next year. It seems that every year the funding agreement is a bone of contention between the Dems and the GOP. Normally, the two sides negotiate down to the wire and reach an agreement at the “eleventh hour,” but not this year.
As the deadline approached, a bill to keep the government operating passed in the House barely, but it failed in the Senate 55-45. (60 votes were required for passage.) President Donald Trump and a bipartisan group of congressional leaders met at the White House on Monday in a last-ditch effort to forestall a shutdown, but no compromise was reached. The Senate is expected to vote again on Wednesday, likely on the same two measures that failed Tuesday, and likely with the same result. So, we have a shutdown. The primary issue seems to be that Congressional Democrats are demanding overhauls to Medicaid cuts and extensions to health care tax credits, which would cost an estimated $1.7 trillion. Republicans are opposed, but they have signaled they would agree to address those concerns in a separate bill.
The current situation is far from unique. Since 1976 the government has undergone ten shutdowns and numerous additional funding gaps that did not result in a shutdown. The last shutdown was from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019 during President Trump’s first term. It lasted 35 days and was the longest ever. The primary issue was Congress’ refusal to provide funding for the U.S.-Mexico border wall. Another recent notable shutdown was for 16 days in 2013 during the Obama presidency over the GOP’s demands to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.
Prior to the 1980s, funding gaps did not normally result in shutdowns. The difference between the two is a funding gap occurs whenever Congress has missed the deadline to pass a budget or a stopgap spending bill (also called a continuing resolution). In those instances, federal government agencies were able to continue to operate on the “assumption” that funding would eventually be restored. And eventually it was. No harm, no foul.
After 1980, however, Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti issued legal opinions that eliminated this tactic. His opinion stated that under federal law agencies were prohibited from spending money without prior congressional approval. Only essential services – such as national security, air traffic control and law enforcement – could continue. Thus, funding gaps morphed into shutdowns.
Some of the implications of the current shutdown are as follows:
- “Essential” personnel – such as military service members (including hundreds of members of the National Guard that Trump has deployed to various U.S. cities), law enforcement officers ICE agents, and air traffic controllers – would be required to keep working, with pay deferred until funding has been restored.
- Federal contractors, including hourly workers such as janitors and security guards, are not required to work and are also not guaranteed back pay.
- Congresspersons would continue to get paid their $174,000 annual salaries (naturally).
- Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid disbursements would continue unabated, although there could be delays.
- Various “nonessential” federal services, such as national parks, monuments and museums, would be halted, reduced, or closed.
- Hundreds of thousands, or perhaps millions of nonessential government employees would be furloughed, placed on unpaid leave, or terminated. Most significantly, the determination of which employees get furloughed, placed on unpaid leave or terminated will be the sole province of the Executive Branch, i.e. President Trump and the Budget Office without recourse. Thus, they could take this opportunity to effect further DOGE cuts, which the Dems have opposed. The Office of Management and Budget has not yet provided an estimate of how many federal workers are expected to go without pay, furloughed or fired. However, OMB Director Russ Vought has threatened mass firings. Democrats have called this an intimidation tactic, but they cannot stop it.
- Mail would continue unabated as the U.S. Postal Service has its own revenue stream independent of government funding.
- Ultimately, the ramifications of the shutdown will likely spread beyond the purely political arena and impact the lives of many Americans who rely tangentially on the above government payments and services.
Conclusion
In my opinion, once again, the Dems have walked into a trap and find themselves on the wrong side of a critical issue. According to a recent NYT/ Siena Poll 65% of Americans are opposed to a shutdown.
In my view the blame for this one rests squarely on the Senate Dems and their inept, blundering leader, (Up)Chuck Schumer. His approval rating is very low, and he is facing a primary challenge for his Senate seat from AOC, which many believe he will lose. Moreover, the left wing of his party is dissatisfied with his leadership, and he faces a likely challenge there as well. I believe he is doing this to placate the left wing, but it will backfire.
To make matters worse Fox News has been playing recordings of Schumer, Pelosi, Hillary Clinton and other Dems condemning past government shutdowns, which contradict their current ranting in favor of this one. I don’t know how they can spin that discrepancy. The optics are really bad. Yes, they will try to blame the GOPers for the shutdown, but the public will not be fooled.
It is in the Senate where the Dems have blocked the CR. Even though the GOP has a slim majority there the Dems were able to prevent them from getting the required 60 votes.
Eventually, this shutdown, like all the others, will be resolved via a CR, and government operations will return to normal (such as they are). This shutdown will become known as the “Schumer Shutdown” and will constitute his political epitaph. Regular readers of my blogs are cognizant of my extreme antipathy for him and, I will not be sorry to see him go.
We Built It Blog by Larry Jacob 