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The coronavirus pandemic keeps getting worse with bad news far outweighing good news.  It appears that we have now entered the “bubble phase” that experts have been predicting.  Hopefully, it won’t last too long.  Conditions in China and South Korea seem to be improving.

The following is a summary of current developments as reported by various news agencies, including, among others, the NY Times, The LA times, USA Today and CNN.

1. In my last blog I mentioned the possibility of a worldwide depression if the economic situation continued along its present path.  According to a news article published today by CNN unfortunately, as illustrated by the below developments, that possibility is becoming increasingly more real every day.
2.  The number of cases and fatalities differ depending on the source, but according to Johns Hopkins University as of today total worldwide cases exceed 278,000 and  fatalities exceed 11,500.  By the time you read this the numbers could easily be 300,000 and 12,000, respectively.
3.  Most people agree the US economy needs a boost to support workers and businesses that have been adversely impacted by the coronavirus outbreak.  The House has passed such a measure, but the Senate is still negotiating its package.   The amount and specifics of it seem to change every day.  The latest estimate, according to the Administration’s top economic advisor, Larry  Kudlow, will likely amount to around $2 trillion, or roughly 10% of GDP.  Why is the Senate taking so long to hammer out a document that everyone agrees is needed asap?  Why is that austere body seemingly incapable of acting exigently and decisively?  Good question.  That’s just the way it operates.  Too many rules and procedures, I suppose, which is small comfort to those in need.
4.  NYC appears to have become the epicenter of the crisis in the US, with an estimated 5,700 cases and 43 deaths.  Currently, it has one-third of all US cases.  I’m not sure how it earned that dubious honor, but its situation is definitely critical.
5. Today, NYS Governor Cuomo disclosed the state has at least 10,300 confirmed cases.  Cuomo told reporters that part of that high amount is due to increased testing   Cuomo said over 45,000 individuals have been tested, and “the more test(s) you take, the more positives you find.”
6.  The city and the state are in urgent need of everything from hospital beds to medical supplies, such as masks, gloves, ventilators and respirators.  As a stop-gap NYS has agreed to send 1 million masks to NYC.  As an example of the severity of the shortage one Brooklyn hospital has begun reusing masks.  They say they are cleaning them as best they can, but still …  Ugh!
7. In order to alleviate the severe shortage of hospital space Cuomo announced he is considering converting areas such as the Javits Center, the Westchester County Center and SUNY Stony Brook to treatment centers.
8. President Trump has declared NY a disaster area.  Senator Chuck Schumer has declared ” we’re at a vital point in the battle against the disease, and we need to do everything in our power to stop it, right here, right now.”
9. NY is not alone.  Various other states have instituted similarly severe measures and issued similarly ominous predictions.   Almost all states have closed their schools, bars, restaurants, and other venues where people congregate.  Gatherings have been restricted considerably.  Governors have declared that non-essential workers should stay home.  “Social distancing” has become the new “buzzword.”
10. Some states, like Minnesota, have declared workers, such as grocery store clerks, cleaning staff, and food preparation personnel, as “emergency” workers, which allows them to continue going to work and entitles them to free child care and certain other benefits.
11.  The US, Canada and Mexico, acting in concert, have closed their common borders to “nonessential” travelers.
12. The financial market indexes have been dropping precipitously  This past week was the worst since the financial crisis of 2008.  Furthermore, there has been no indication that a bottom has been reached.  In a related matter, four members of Congress who had advance information of the coronavirus have been accused of selling substantial blocks of stock just prior to the market declines.  If true, this would be illegal and an unconscionable violation of public trust.  Hopefully, the SEC will conduct a formal investigation and if one or more of them is guilty assess appropriate penalties.  At the very least, the optics are very bad.
13. With everything that’s going on, amazingly, the Tokyo Summer Olympic Games have not been cancelled or postponed.  The organizers appear to be in denial.  There is no way they can go on as scheduled.  Olympic officials in many countries have been calling for the IOC to cancel or postpone them.  How are all the countries in lockdown supposed to hold Olympic trials to determine their teams?  How are the athletes supposed to train, assuming they are even healthy enough to do so?  Why would any of them want to travel to Japan at this time anyway?
14.  Australia, which has been practicing “social distancing,” was forced to close the famous Bondi Beach on Saturday after huge crowds of people gathered on the beach in defiance of the order.
15. England closed all restaurants, pubs and bars.  Rishi Sunak, Finance Minister, characterized the order as an “unprecedented measure for unprecedented times.”  The government pledged to soften the impact on workers by paying them up to 80% of their wages.  Furthermore, one London hospital declared it was running out of “critical care capacity” and was seeking to transfer some patients to other hospitals, which, of course, would put similar pressures on them.
16. Many stores in the UK are running out of supplies.  Several shelves in supermarkets have been empty.   The government has issued an appeal to shoppers to refrain from hoarding.  George Eustice, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, declared that “buying more than you need means that others may be left without…There is more than enough to go around.”
17.  Egypt has closed all mosques for two weeks.
18. Up to now, South America has largely escaped the pandemic.  But, in a sign that that is about to change Colombia, Argentina, Costa Rica and other South American countries have instituted closures, lockdowns and restrictions on travel.
19.  Israel had been doing very well with only 883 cases and no fatalities out of a population of nine million.  However, Friday it reported its initial death.  I believe the circumstances portend an ominous situation.  The victim was an 88 year-old living in a nursing home.  Apparently, he had been infected by a social worker who had visited the home.  Reportedly, several other residents have also been infected, so we can expect more fatalities.
20. New guidelines from the Red Cross suggest that its relief shelters may have been unwittingly spreading the virus among some residents.  So, it is now requiring (1) social distancing and (2) everyone to have their temperature taken.
21. There is still the ongoing problem with cruise ships.  Many of them are still stuck at sea with sick passengers and nowhere to dock.  Those that have found a port, such as the Costa Luminosa and the Ruby Princess, which have docked in Savona, Italy, and Sydney, Australia, respectively, have infected passengers and have endangered  the local populace.
22. Tragically, seven members of one family in NJ were stricken with the virus, and four of them have died.
23.  There have been reports emanating from China, Italy and South Korea that men are more likely to die from the virus than women by a ratio of 2:1.   The LA Times reported that men have accounted for 58% of the cases worldwide and 72% of the fatalities.  Why? No one knows for sure, but one theory is that more men smoke than women and, perhaps, the smoking has compromised their lungs.  Another theory is that estrogen is somehow acting to mitigate the effects of the virus.

CONCLUSION

Finally, some good news.  We are beginning to see some instances of private industry “stepping up.”  For example:

1.  Wall Mart has announced it will pay cash bonuses to its US workers.
2.  Darden Restaurants has declared it will pay two weeks wages to any of its 190,000 employees whose hours have been cut due to the pandemic.

Through all the bad news regarding this virus it is not easy to remain upbeat, but I urge you all to try to do so.  This surge in cases and fatalities was predicted.  We have beaten other pandemics in the past, and I believe that by pulling together we will beat this one too.

In the meantime, MAINTAIN YOUR “SOCIAL DISTANCE,” and WASH YOUR HANDS THOROUGHLY.

And the hits just keep on coming.  With the world already reeling from the coronavirus outbreak the latest news is mostly bad.  The experts have been telling us that despite all our efforts things are expected to get worse before they get better, and unfortunately they appear to be correct.  As I write this, a summary of the significant developments as reported in the “NY Times,” CNN, and elsewhere is as follows:

1.  First, some good news. China is reporting (1) the mortality rate in Wuhan Province was lower than previously reported.  Instead of 2 – 3 1/2 % of those infected, we are now being told it is 1.4%.  (2) China is advising that there have been no new infections.  Of course, most of us take any information disseminated by the Chinese government with the proverbial “grain of salt.”
2. Italy’s fatality count has now surpassed 3,400, which exceeds that of China.  This is particularly disturbing since Italy’s total population is only 60.5 million compared to China’s 1.5 billion.
3.  What do we or can we extrapolate from the terrifying situation in Italy?  How did the virus get out of control so quickly?  I don’t know.  I have not seen a rational explanation.  The situation is particularly disturbing since Italy was the first European country to impose travel restrictions on its citizens.  That action should have mitigated the impact of the virus, but apparently it did not.  Furthermore, it has called upon the military to lend assistance.  In an effort to stem the tide, the army has provided doctors and other health professionals, set up field hospitals, and provided a variety of other emergency  services.  Prime Minister Giuseppe Conti has asserted Italy’s “restrictive” measures are working, but if these measures are “working” I would hate to see what would have happened had they not been enacted.
4.  The US death toll continues to rise.  It is now approaching 11,000.  Basically, most of us are confined to our own homes for our own good.  We only venture out for necessities, such as food and medicine.  Our lives have been placed on hold, for how long, no one knows.
5. The State Department has raised its travel advisory level to four, which is the top level warning.  It is recommending (not requiring) that all Americans presently abroad should return home.  President Trump disclosed that the military will be available to assist those who are seeking to return but are stranded.  Alternatively, they should shelter in place.  Several other countries have also issued travel advisories .
6. Various medical supplies, such as testing kits, respirators, ventilators, masks, and hospital beds remain in short supply, although federal, state and local governments and the private sector are coordinating feverishly to rectify the shortages.  For example, a huge, fully-equipped hospital ship has docked in NY to provide assistance, and GM has offered to build ventilators in its plants.
7.  Several parties have been proceeding with researching possible vaccines.  Mr. Trump has advised that his administration has “slashed red tape” in order to expedite this process.  There appear to be various possibilities in the pipeline, although a usable vaccine is likely a year or more away.  According to Dr. Stephen Hahn, the FDA commissioner, the most promising drugs for treating the virus appear to be chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, which have actually been used for 70 some years to treat malaria.   Dr. Hahn added that unfortunately, these drugs have not been tested for effectiveness against the virus, and there is no assurance they will be effective in treating it.  Another drug, remdesivir, may be approved for “compassionate use” only, i. e. for patients who would die otherwise.
8. The economy, which had been roaring along, is heading for a recession, perhaps a deep one. Some people are predicting a depression. The stock market remains jumpy.  Some people are panicking over their dwindling 401K accounts, but remember the market suffered similar declines after “9/11” and during the SARS and H1N1 epidemics and came roaring back.  In an effort to calm fears President Trump stated that he “believe(s) in the V curve” for both the economy and the stock market (rapid decline followed quickly by rapid recovery).  For what it’s worth, so do I.
9. The Congress has approved a $1 billion aide package, which will include, among other things, cash payments to certain workers and loans to small businesses.  The hope and expectation is that this will mitigate the economic downturn.  I believe it will certainly help, but how will it be delivered, how soon, and will it be sufficient?
10.  Governors continue to close restaurants, bars, schools, gyms and other meeting places in their respective states, and restrict gatherings to a certain maximum number of people.  Texas is the latest to do so.  The governor has declared a “public health disaster” for the first time since 1901.
11. Georgia has self-quarantined its state legislature after a state senator tested positive for the virus.
12.  NY Governor Andrew Cuomo issued an executive order waiving mortgage payments for 90 days for those persons facing hardship. He also felt it necessary to deny ridiculous rumors that the state was going to declare martial law or “lock people in their homes.”
13.  Connecticut has joined the list of states that have delayed their primaries (from April 28 to June 2).
14. There are rumors that some locales may be releasing prisoners from jails due to “unsafe overcrowding.”
15.  There was a report that in Philadelphia police will no longer enforce “minor” crimes.  If true, these last two would be very scary.  In my opinion, they would signal a breakdown in safety for ordinary citizens

CONCLUSION

As the economy continues to deteriorate and the stock market remains in freefall I am reminded that last year certain far left liberals, for example, comedian Bill Maher, expressed dismay that the economy was setting records, because it was reflecting well on Donald Trump.  They were wishing for a downturn so he would be blamed and then possibly be defeated for re-election.  I know they weren’t wishing for the virus, but this reminds me of the old adage “be careful what you wish for.”

The ramifications of this virus may reach far beyond the medical issues. It may plunge what was arguably the best economy ever into a depression.  In addition, it may swing the presidential election.  A month ago President Trump looked like a strong bet to win.  If this keeps up or gets worse, it may cost him the election.

On the plus side, this crisis has even managed to get political opponents, to mend fences, at least temporarily.  For example, President Trump, CA Governor Gavin Newsome and NY Governor Andrew Cuomo have been coordinating efforts fairly seamlessly, even complimenting each other.  Even Rep Ilhan Omar has praised Mr. Trump’s efforts.  Most politicians realize that now is the time to put aside differences and unite against the common enemy.  The virus does not distinguish between GOP and Dem, black and white, or rich and poor.  Now, if we can only get CNN and MSNBC to climb on the bandwagon that would be impressive.

And the hits just keep on coming. With the world already reeling from the coronavirus outbreak the latest news is mostly bad. The experts have been telling us that despite all our efforts things are expected to get worse before they get better, and unfortunately they appear to be correct. As I write this, a summary of the significant developments as reported in the “NY Times,” CNN, and elsewhere is as follows:

1.  First, some good news. China is reporting (1) the mortality rate in Wuhan Province was lower than previously reported. Instead of 2 – 3 1/2 % of those infected, we are now being told it is 1.4%. (2) China is advising that there have been no new infections. Of course, most of us take any information disseminated by the Chinese government with the proverbial “grain of salt.”
2. Italy’s fatality count has now surpassed 3,400, which exceeds that of China. This is particularly disturbing since Italy’s total population is only 60.5 million compared to China’s 1.5 billion.
3. What do we or can we extrapolate from the terrifying situation in Italy? How did the virus get out of control so quickly? I don’t know. I have not seen a rational explanation. The situation is particularly disturbing since Italy was the first European country to impose travel restrictions on its citizens. That action should have mitigated the impact of the virus, but apparently it did not. Furthermore, it has called upon the military to lend assistance. In an effort to stem the tide, the army has provided doctors and other health professionals, set up field hospitals, and provided a variety of other emergency services. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conti has asserted Italy’s “restrictive” measures are working, but if these measures are “working” I would hate to see what would have happened had they not been enacted.
4. The US death toll continues to rise. It is now approaching 11,000. Basically, most of us are confined to our own homes for our own good. We only venture out for necessities, such as food and medicine. Our lives have been placed on hold, for how long, no one knows.
5. The State Department has raised its travel advisory level to four, which is the top level warning. It is recommending (not requiring) that all Americans presently abroad should return home. President Trump disclosed that the military will be available to assist those who are seeking to return but are stranded. Alternatively, they should shelter in place. Several other countries have also issued travel advisories .
6. Various medical supplies, such as testing kits, respirators, ventilator masks, and hospital beds remain in short supply, although federal, state and local governments and the private sector are coordinating feverishly to rectify the shortages. For example, a huge, fully-equipped hospital ship has docked in NY to provide assistance, and GM has offered to build ventilators in its plants.
   Several parties have been proceeding with researching possible vaccines. Mr. Trump has advised that his administration has “slashed red tape” in order to expedite this process. There appear to be various possibilities in the pipeline, although a usable vaccine is likely a year or more away. According to Dr. Stephen Hahn, the FDA commissioner, the most promising drugs for treating the virus appear to be chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, which have actually been used for 70 some years to treat malaria. Dr. Hahn added that unfortunately, these drugs have not been tested for effectiveness against the virus, and there is no assurance they will be effective in treating it. Another drug, remdesivir, may be approved for “compassionate use” only, i. e. for patients who would die otherwise.
7. The economy, which had been roaring along, is heading for a recession, perhaps a deep one. Some people are predicting a depression. The stock market remains jumpy. Some people are panicking over their dwindling 401K accounts, but remember the market suffered similar declines after “9/11” and during the SARS and H1N1 epidemics and came roaring back. In an effort to calm fears President Trump stated that he “believe(s) in the V curve” for both the economy and the stock market (rapid decline followed quickly by rapid recovery). For what it’s worth, so do I.
8. The Congress has approved a $1 billion aide package, which will include, among other things, cash payments to certain workers and loans to small businesses. The hope and expectation is that this will mitigate the economic downturn. I believe it will certainly help, but how will it be delivered, how soon, and will it be sufficient?
   Governors continue to close restaurants, bars, schools, gyms and other meeting places in their respective states, and restrict gatherings to a certain maximum number of people. Texas is the latest to do so. The governor has declared a “public health disaster” for the first time since 1901.
9. Georgia has self-quarantined its state legislature after a state senator tested positive for the virus.
10. NY Governor Andrew Cuomo issued an executive order waiving mortgage payments for 90 days for those persons facing hardship. He also felt it necessary to deny ridiculous rumors that the state was going to declare martial law or “lock people in their homes.”
11. Connecticut has joined the list of states that have delayed their primaries (from April 28 to June 2).
12. There are rumors that some locales may be releasing prisoners from jails due to “unsafe overcrowding.”
13. There was a report that in Philadelphia police will no longer enforce “minor” crimes. If true, these last two would be very scary. In my opinion, they would signal a breakdown in safety for ordinary citizens.

CONCLUSION

As the economy continues to deteriorate and the stock market remains in freefall I am reminded that last year certain far left liberals, for example, comedian Bill Maher, expressed dismay that the economy was setting records, because it was reflecting well on Donald Trump. They were wishing for a downturn so he would be blamed and then possibly be defeated for re-election. I know they weren’t wishing for the virus, but this reminds me of the old adage “be careful what you wish for.”

The ramifications of this virus may reach far beyond the medical issues. It may plunge what was arguably the best economy ever into a depression. In addition, it may swing the presidential election. A month ago President Trump looked like a strong bet to win. If this keeps up or gets worse, it may cost him the election.

On the plus side, this crisis has even managed to get political opponents, to mend fences, at least temporarily. For example, President Trump, CA Governor Gavin Newsome and NY Governor Andrew Cuomo have been coordinating efforts fairly seamlessly, even complimenting each other. Even Rep Ilhan Omar has praised Mr. Trump’s efforts. Most politicians realize that now is the time to put aside differences and unite against the common enemy. The virus does not distinguish between GOP and Dem, black and white, or rich and poor. Now, if we can only get CNN and MSNBC to climb on the bandwagon that would be impressive.

As the Coronavirus has continued to spread throughout the world I am struck by the wide range of reactions and attitudes of people.  Some people have taken a cavalier attitude, choosing to downplay or even ignore the warnings of various medical professionals and political leaders.  I have noted that this has been particularly true of younger people who are in generally good health.  I suppose, they think they are invulnerable.  Also, some of them reason that even if they were to get sick they would fight it off.  They should be mindful that various medical professionals have cautioned that even if they do not get sick or if they recover from a mild case of Corona they could infect others who are more susceptible, such as an elderly relative, an infant, or a friend with a compromised immune system.

Many of them have been resisting the recommendations to “shelter in place” and not to congregate in gatherings of more than ten people.   I have observed less and less of this attitude in the last couple of days, as more and more states, counties and cities have promulgated restrictions on large gatherings and have closed restaurants, bars and other venues, but it still exists to some extent.  For example, many college-age students are insisting on participating in the traditional “Spring Break.”   They plan to congregate on the public beaches and party wherever else they can, although some governors such as Florida’s Ron DeSantis, have warned they will enforce the CDC’s guidelines on “social distancing” and “social responsibility.”  It should be interesting too see what transpires.

On the other hand, many people have been panicking.  For example, in the last few days I have noted news reports of “runs” on items, such as food, medical supplies, and even toilet paper.   People are buying more food than they could possibly eat in a month.  There have even been reports of brawls in stores over some of these items.  I’m sorry, but that is just ridiculous.  People see that on the news and it just feeds more panic and desperation.  Don’t be surprised if one day someone is killed over a bottle of milk or a loaf of bread.

Many supermarkets’ shelves are empty as if they had been attacked by a horde of locusts.  Do people really think we will run out of basic necessities such as food to eat or water to drink or toilet paper to wipe their rear ends with?   We’re not in the midst of a famine or similar disaster.   In my view, the worst case would be just temporary disruptions in the supply chain.  One might not be able to get a preferred brand of milk or bread, but there will be some available.

As I write this, the latest statistics available: worldwide cases – 190,000; deaths – 7,500.  US cases – 6,000; deaths – 90.  The states with the highest number of cases are Washington with close to 800, followed closely by NY.  Remarkably, West Virginia still has none.  Good for them.

By now, we are all familiar with the basic symptoms of the Virus, but I think they bear repeating:  runny nose, sore throat, fever, cough and shortness of breath.  Severe cases could lead to pneumonia.

What to do if you think you are sick?

1.  The number one rule, as various doctors have cautioned, is stay home.
2. Do not go to a hospital or clinic.  Do not go to work.  Don’t send your children to school (assuming their school has not been closed).  Contact your doctor for instructions.  If you were to go to the hospital and you are not sick, chances are you will catch the virus from someone there who is, and if you are sick you will likely infect others who are not.  In most cases, the best course will be to self-quarantine at home.  Be wary of infecting at-risk members of your household, such as children, the elderly and anyone with a compromised immune system.
3. Drink plenty of water.
4. Keep your doctor apprised of your condition.

Various medical professionals and political leaders from the president on down have stated we are entering a crucial period.  The virus is likely poised for a substantial uptick in infections over the next 15 days.  In preparation, more and more political leaders have restricted group gatherings and closed schools, restaurants and bars and other venues where people gather.  In addition, more and more businesses are laying off employees or encouraging them to work from home.

For example:

1. In NY, NJ, Washington DC, CT, and various other locales all restaurants and bars have been closed, except for takeout orders.
2. More and more schools have been closed, with students to be taught by virtual learning.
3. Several states, such as MD, GA, LA and KT, have postponed scheduled primaries.
4. Various utility companies have suspended pending “service disconnections” and/or waived penalties for late payment of bills.
5.  More testing kits and drive-in facilities are becoming available, in some cases, with the assistance of private companies, such as Target and Wall Mart.

Basically, there is no need to leave one’s house except for emergencies or to obtain basic necessities.  This Virus is highly contagious, much more so than the flu.  The best defense against it is to avoid close human contact and shelter in place.

CONCLUSION

We can beat this contagion if we are smart, stay calm, listen to our leaders, and use common sense.  I believe we need to engage in moderation.  We need to stay in the vast middle ground between cavalier and panic.  We should be respectful of the Virus and what it is capable of, but we should not fear it.  I am reminded of the famous words of FDR in 1932 in the depth of the Depression: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”  That was true then, and it is true now.

This blog is an update to my posting on February 27, 2020.  Much has happened since then.  In fact, we have been bombarded with significant developments daily, if not hourly.  It is hard to keep up unless one is glued to the tv or internet continuously.

For example, as reported by various news outlets, such as CNN, Fox, NPR, Haaretz and others, in just the last few days the folIowing significant events have occurred:

1. WHO declared the outbreak to be a “pandemic,” which means that it has spread across multiple continents or to a significant region of the world.  The designation is not predicated upon the number of cases or deaths, as some people think.
2. Unfortunately, pandemics have not been rare.  Just in the 21st century we have had three, with SARS and the swine flu being the others.
3. Corona is thought to have originated in bats, whereas SARS and the swine flu originated from pigs.
4. According to the CDC the warning signs to be cognizant of generally include headache, shortness of breath, persistent pain or pressure in the chest, fever, coughing, lethargy or bluish lips or face.  Unfortunately, some of these mimic the symptoms for the ordinary flu, so in the absence of testing one cannot be sure if one is infected.  Anyone developing some or all of the above symptoms is urged to contact a doctor for guidance.  Don’t just go to a hospital or clinic.  If you do so and you have the virus you could infect others who don’t.  If you don’t have the virus you could catch it from those who do.
5.  According to CNN in the US every state except for West Virginia has reported at least one case, although, by the time you read this it, too, may have reported one or more.  Washington State has reported the most, nearly 600.  Keep in mind, due to the shortage of testing kits, the number of reported cases is likely understated, perhaps, significantly so.
6.  President Trump has declared a national emergency and authorized $50 billion of federal funds to be allocated to fight the outbreak.  President Trump asserted that “no resource will be spared, nothing whatsoever.”  The significance of a NE is that the federal government can institute a variety of actions and policies that normally it would be precluded from doing.  Typically, a NE is only declared during a natural disaster, an epidemic, or a war.  The declaration also had a psychological benefit as witnessed by the strong rally in the stock market.
7.  The stock market has been bouncing up and down like a deranged yo-yo.  I believe it has a great psychological impact on the populace, so I was glad to see it recover immediately after the president’s speech.  I believe it is considerably oversold, and, as was the case following other disasters and pandemics, such as “9/11,” swine flu, and SARS, it will recover all of its losses and then some as soon as it becomes apparent that the danger has passed
8.  The president tightened travel restrictions, banning travel to the US from Europe, except for returning American citizens who had been screened.
9. The House passed an aid package.  The Senate is expected to do so in a few days.  The President has stated he will sign it promptly.
10.  The president disclosed that the government will be pairing with the private sector to augment testing and medical supplies.  The paucity of testing kits has received the most criticism.  For instance, the NIT’s Dr. Anthony Fauci has repeatedly pointed out that the “US testing system was failing to meet the public’s needs.”   He was particularly critical of the “incompetence” of the CDC, which he blamed for not being prepared for an outbreak of this magnitude.  Consequently, we don’t have an accurate count of infected people.  In contrast, there are reports that South Korea, which a week ago was cited as one of the hot spots, has been testing 10,000 or more persons per day, chiefly by drive-through and now appears to have the virus under control.  Mr. Trump has been eliciting the assistance of retailers, such as Wall Mart and Target, to establish drive-in testing venues.   The obvious advantage over walk-in testing sites is that the person being tested is isolated in his or her car and will not infect others or be infected by others.  NY, IL, and Colorado have already commenced drive-in testing, and other states will likely follow. NY Governor Andrew Cuomo stated that testing can be set up by appointment.  He called it “faster, easier, smarter and safer.”
11.  In a move that two months ago would have been considered unthinkable, a variety of public gatherings have been cancelled, postponed or curtailed.  For example, in sports, the NCAA has cancelled the remainder of its games, including the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball championship tournaments, which are its biggest moneymakers; MLB is delaying opening its season; the NBA and NHL have suspended their remaining scheduled games; the PGA has cancelled many events and delayed the Masters Golf Tournament until the autumn; and NASCAR will be holding its races without fans in the stands.  For many people who had had a cavalier attitude toward the virus this was a “wakeup call.”  Moreover, many entertainment venues, including Broadway theatres, have cancelled scheduled shows; many colleges have closed and sent their students home; many public schools have suspended classes; movie theatres have begun to limit seating;  theme parks, such as Disney, have closed; and weddings and Bar Mitvahs have been delayed.  Many school classes, business meetings, and religious services will likely be held by virtual reality, rather than in person.  Various businesses are encouraging employees to work from home.   Furthermore, several states and foreign countries have passed laws limiting the number of persons in public gatherings ranging from 500 in NYC to ten in Israel.  The adjustments to our lives seem to be endless and, in some cases, may prove to be permanent.
12.  Inevitably, some people have panicked.  There have been several instances of “runs” on staples, such as milk and bread, even toilet paper as some people think they need to stock up.  There have even been fistfights on some occasions.  In my opinion, there is no reason for this, but it occurs all the time in a crisis.
13.  Some countries, for instance, Denmark, Poland, Israel and Czechoslovakia, have closed their borders.  Mr. Trump had closed ours weeks ago.  At the time, he was called a “racist” for doing so, but now it seems like a very  prescient decision.
14.  Most of the victims have been elderly and/or persons with underlying health problems, such as respiratory problems, diabetes or heart problems.  In a particularly poignant occurrence there was a report out of London of a newborn who had tested positive for the virus.
15. There have been reports of a vaccine being ready for testing.  I am aware of two – one in Israel and one by a company based in Boston.  That is great news, but it is important to note that clinical trials can take several months.

So, how does the corona virus compare with the most recent pandemic in 2009, the swine flu, aka H1N1?  Glad you asked.  Read on.

According to WHO:

1.  There were 1.4 billion confirmed cases worldwide (61 million in the US) of the swine flu compared to 132,000 of the corona virus so far (some 1,300 in the US).
2. Fatalities – 575,000 for swine flu (12,469 US) vs. about 5,000 for corona (36 and counting in the US).
3.  Of course, the Corona Virus has not yet run its course.  Most experts predict a spike before it does, so beware.
4. According to “Business Insider” the mortality rate for the swine flu was only .02%.  Corona’s is estimated to be 3 – 4%.  By contrast SARS mortality rate was 9.6%.

CONCLUSION

There is no doubt that the Corona virus is a serious outbreak.  At first, it seemed to take us by surprise.  Part of that was due to the Chinese government’s underreporting the severity of the outbreak and its laxity in dealing with it.   However, as various governments and health organizations have begun to gear up, and people have begun to observe common sense precautions, it now appears that we will prevail.   As I said above, we have prevailed over several pandemics in the past.

One disquieting note is that due to the shortage of testing equipment we don’t really know the extent of the outbreak.  Additionally, we could develop a shortage of basic medical equipment, such as ventilators, and even hospital beds prospectively.  Hopefully, we will rectify that soon.

Another potential problem is brewing in some cities, such as NY, LA, SF and Seattle, which have large groups of homeless people.  They are living in dangerously unsanitary conditions.  Many of them are in poor general health to begin with.  These areas are a prime breeding ground for any disease, especially Corona.  There is potential in these locations for a sizeable concentration of cases.

The other matter that irks me is that some have sought to politicize this outbreak by criticizing and blaming their political opponents.  For example, (1) As noted above, President Trump was roundly criticized by his political enemies when he restricted travel into the US.  Meanwhile, several other countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Israel, Jordan, Spain and Italy have also done so, some early on and some later. (2) One of the “fake news” networks was complaining about a “lack of diversity” among the members of  VP Pence’s task force. Really? Who cares?  We need the best people whether they are white, black, brown or purple, male female or other, and it appears that we got them.  (3) Furthermore, some were saying that referring to the outbreak as the “Chinese flu” was racist and insensitive.   Another inanity.  Where did the virus originate?  China.  In the past we have had the “Spanish flu” and the “Asian flu” based on the areas of origin.  To me, the abovementioned criticisms were a totally irresponsible distraction.

Some politicians and members of the media have been engaging in fear-mongering.  I believe that has contributed to the wild gyrations of the stock market and the “runs” on some products.  Now is not the time for that.  That is distracting and counterproductive.  What the people need is to be reassured by calm, rational leadership.  I think President Trump has struck exactly the right note.  There is plenty of blame to go around.  When this outbreak has been contained, then it would be appropriate to analyze what we did wrong and institute corrective action to guard against a recurrence.  At this point, we have to all work together to solve the problem.  Hopefully, we will.

Most of you are familiar with the children’s fairy tale, “The Emperor Has No clothes.”  For those of you who may not be, the gist of the story is that the emperor is very proud of his new clothes.  He wears them in public to show them off to everyone.  In reality, he is naked, but no one has the courage to acknowledge it.  Instead, they ignore his nudity, pretend he has clothes on, and tell him how great he looks in them.  Finally, one person, a little girl, blurts out the honest truth that the emperor has no clothes on whereupon everybody finally acknowledges the truth.

That, my friends, is what we are seeing now with Joe Biden.  Any objective person can readily ascertain that Biden has “lost a step,” maybe two or three.   He has always been prone to gaffes, but now they are more frequent and serious.  He forgets what day it, where he is, what office he is running for, tells us emphatically that guns killed “150 MILLION” people last year, and mixes up his wife and sister.  No one seems to want to admit it, not his campaign staff, not his supporters, not the Dem Party leaders, not the mainstream media, and, most importantly, not most of the general public.

Things are so bad that his handlers have limited his campaign speeches to seven minutes or so.  Moreover, they are seeking approval for him to use a chair to sit on in the next debate.  I suppose the theory is that the less he speaks, the less the chance that he would utter a damaging gaffe.

Meanwhile, Biden continues to rack up the endorsements.  The first significant endorsement, and the one that is generally viewed as the one that turned the tide was South Carolina Senator and House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn.  It came on the eve of the SC primary.  Until then, Biden’s campaign had been floundering seriously.  He was running short of money, and he was being attacked mercilessly by the other candidates.  It looked like Sanders had the inside track to the nomination.  Biden had suffered through disappointing losses in Iowa and New Hampshire.  In NH he hadn’t even bothered to stay to the end of the night to thank his supporters who had labored long and hard for him for months.  Instead, he left early to campaign in SC.

Following Clyburn’s endorsement Biden won big in SC.  He might have won anyway, but the Clyburn endorsement had to have helped significantly.  Suddenly, “Old Mo” was on Biden’s side.  Klobuchar, Bloomberg and Buttigieg dropped out and endorsed him.  Warren stayed in the race, which likely benefited him by syphoning off votes from Sanders.

He cleaned up on “Super Tuesday” and followed up with resounding victories on “mini Super Tuesday.”  Now, the money and endorsements are pouring in.  Except for Sanders and Elizabeth  Warren, all of Biden’s major former opponents have endorsed him.  Moreover, the DNC and Party insiders are in his corner.  Now, it is Biden who looks unstoppable.

As I write this, the nomination is his to lose.  He leads in the delegate count 846-684 (a misleadingly large lead since most of the remaining states will be awarding delegates proportionally rather than winner-take-all; the demographics of the upcoming states favor him, particularly Florida; and finally, he is perceived to have the best chance of defeating President Trump in the general.

CONCLUSION

But, is Biden’s sudden rise a good thing for America.  Nobody wants to talk about it, but Joe does not seem mentally competent.  Even Sanders has been reluctant to raise the issue.

Can we/should we elect a man who seems incapable of governing effectively?  The issue of his incompetence is not being discussed anywhere, except on Fox News.  It is being assiduously ignored, just like in the aforementioned children’s fable.  Except, this is real life, folks.

In my opinion, the “deep state,” Party insiders and their allies in the media are fully aware of Biden’s condition.  But they have their reasons for ignoring it:

1.  Their overriding obsession is to defeat Donald Trump no matter what the cost and the impact  on America, and they realize that there is no other candidate who can.  Mr. Trump has been their worst nightmare.  He is uncontrollable, and he has been successful.  He has “called them out,” and he has taken away their absolute power and influence.  They want it back in the worst way, and they will do anything to get it (even support a candidate they know is incompetent).  Presidents come and go every four or eight years, but the “deep state” is more or less permanent.
2. Biden is a “good soldier” who can be controlled by the “deep state.”  As president, he would dutifully follow the guidance of his advisors, including and especially his vice president.  He would not make waves.
3. He would be unlikely to seek a second term, in which case the vice president or some other loyal party person would hopefully ascend to the presidency.  This would be the VP whom the insiders had secretly selected in the proverbial “smoke-filled room.”
4. Even better, he might not even finish his first term.   No matter.  Trump would be gone, and the “deep state” would be back in business.

What America needs is people to speak up, like that little girl, and tell the electorate that Biden, figuratively, “has no clothes.”

We are in the midst of what could very well be an historic presidential election.  It promises to be exciting and contentious.  Each of the three viable contenders – President Trump and Dem hopefuls Sanders and Biden – has a cadre of very strong supporters and also harsh critics.   When all is said and done we could end up with another four raucous years of President Trump, an avowed Socialist in the White House and/or a female vice president.

With that in mind, I thought a presidents’ quiz might be appropriate.  How much do you know about our presidents?  Let’s see.

You know the drill.  No peeking at the internet.  No asking “Alexa.”  Good luck.

1. Donald Trump is president # (a) 42, (b) 43, (c) 44, (d) 45.
2. Who was the only president to serve in both WW1 and WW2?  (a) Harry Truman, (b) Dwight Eisenhower, (c) Douglas MacArthur, (d) John F. Kennedy
3.  Each of the following served as generals in the US Army, EXCEPT: (a) Theodore Roosevelt, (b) Franklyn Pierce, (c) Benjamin Harrison, (d) Andrew Johnson.  Bonus – There were 12 in total.  How many can you name?  See below.
4.   Only two presidents are buried in Arlington National Cemetery, JFK and who else? (a) Eisenhower, (b) Jackson, (c) Taft, (d) Teddy Roosevelt.
5.  Who is the only president to serve two terms non-consecutively? (a) Grover Cleveland, (b) James Buchanan, (c) Teddy Roosevelt, (d) Chester A. Arthur.
6. What was Lady Bird Johnson’s real first name? (a) Eugenia, (b) Claudia, (c) Alice, (d) Mary
7.  Who is the longest-lived former president?  (a) George Washington, (b) George HW Bush, (c) Jimmy Carter, (d) Ronald Reagan
8.  Who was the oldest president on his inauguration date? ( Jimmy Carter, (b)  Ronald Reagan, (c) George HW Bush, (d) Donald Trump
9. Who was the only president who never got married? (a) Andrew Johnson, (b) Warren Harding, (c) James Buchanan, (d) John Quincy Adams.
10. Who is the only president to have also served as Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court? (a) Woodrow Wilson, (b) James A. Garfield, (c) Benjamin Harrison, (d) William Howard Taft
11.  Who was the first president for whom “Hail to the Chief” was played? (a) John Tyler, (b) George Washington, (c) Andrew Jackson, (d) FDR.
12.  Which president’s wife was the first to be dubbed “First Lady?” (a) John Adams, (b) Thomas Jefferson, (c) James Madison, (d) James Polk
13. Who was the only president to serve in both the Revolutionary War and the War of 1812? (a) James Monroe, (b) John Quincy Adams, (c) Andrew Jackson, (d) John Tyler.
14.  Who was the only president to serve as president and vice president without being elected to either office? (a) Gerald Ford, (b) John Adams, (c) James Monroe, (d) Martin Van Buren
15.  Who was the first president to live in the White House? (a) George Washington, (b) John Adams, (c) Thomas Jefferson, (d) James Madison
16. Who was the shortest president? (a) John Adams, (b) James Monroe, (c) James Madison, (d) John Quincy Adams.
17.  Who was the first president to be born in the US? (a) Andrew Jackson, (b) George Washington, (c) James Buchanan, (d) Martin Van Buren
18.  Who had the shortest tenure as president? (a) James K. Polk, (b) William Henry Harrison, (c) Rutherford B. Hayes, (d) Samuel Tilden
19.  Who was known as “Old Kinderhook?” (a) Franklyn Pierce, (b) Chester A. Arthur, (c) John Tyler, (d) Martin Van Buren.
20.  How many presidents have died in office? (a) 6, (b) 8, (c) 10, (d) 4
21.  How many presidents were elected despite having lost the popular vote? (a) 4, (b) 5, (c) 6, (d) 8.
22.  FDR won four terms as president.  How many VPs did he have? (a) 1, (b) 2, (c) 3, (d) 4.

ANSWERS: 1. (d); 2. (b); 3. (a); [ Washington, Jackson, Zachary Taylor, Franklyn Pierce, Andrew Johnson, US Grant, Rutherford B. Hayes, William Henry Harrison, James Garfield, Chester A. Arthur, Benjamin Harrison, Eisenhower] 4. c;  5. (a);  6. (b);  7. (c) (95 and counting);  8. (d) (70, FYI Biden would be 78; Sanders would be 79);  9. c;  10. d;  11. (a);  12. (c) (President Zachary Taylor referred to Dolley Madison as “First Lady” when he eulogized her at her funeral.)  13. (c);  14. (a);  15. (b);  16. (c) (5′ 4″); 17. (d);  18. (b) (32 days); 19. (d) (That was the derivation of “okay” or “OK”);  20. (b); 21. (b) ( John Quincy Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes, Benjamin Harrison, George W. Bush, Donald Trump); 22. (c) (John Nance Garner, Henry A. Wallace, Harry S. Truman)

So, how did you do?  I’d like to know.

You can’t make this up.  The battle for the Dem 2020 nomination has had more twists and turns than a Hollywood “whodoneit.”  For months Joe Biden was the presumptive nominee.  Then, Biden faded as whenever he spoke in public he reminded us that he was a 77 year-old gaffe machine.  Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rourke, and Elizabeth Warren took turns as media darlings.  Then, one by one, they faded or self-destructed.  Meanwhile, incredibly and against all odds and logic, avowed Socialist Bernie Sanders’ popularity grew.  He had money; he had an organization; he had grassroots support all over the country; and he had a cadre of intensely loyal supporters.  It seemed increasingly likely that he could win the nomination.

His ascendancy was horrifying not only to most voters but also to the Dem establishment.  I and many others have long asserted that Sanders would never get the nomination.  The Dem establishment would simply not allow it.  Not only would his nomination virtually insure four more years of the hated Donald Trump, but it could easily lead to the loss of the House.  They stopped him in 2016; they would do so again in 2020.  It was just a matter of when and how.

Indeed this week the establishment struck.  They struck suddenly and most effectively.  Their plot to derail Bernie was executed brilliantly.

1.  On the eve of Super Tuesday Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg dropped out and threw their support to Biden.  The timing was right.  Biden had just won the South Carolina primary, which was his first strong showing in any state, and hundreds of delegates were at stake.
2. Wednesday, Michael Bloomberg dropped out and, you guessed it, endorsed Biden.  His candidacy had been ill-advised from the beginning.  He was never a serious contender.  I believe he entered the race primarily because, at the time, it seemed as though Biden was floundering, and he saw himself as the guy to derail Bernie.   Instead, he embarrassed himself.  He wasted some $500 million for the dubious honor of being filleted on the debate stage, and he won a grand total of five delegates in American Samoa, which most voters cannot find on a globe.  (Don’t feel sorry for him, however.  He still has around $60 billion left, to assuage his feelings, give or take a billion.)
3. Now, Biden is the only moderate Dem remaining, and the field is clear for him to win the nomination
4. As a bonus, Elizabeth Warren stayed in the race through Super Tuesday.  Then, after having syphoned off votes that would likely have gone to Sanders, she dropped out.  I am not sure if she was part of the plot, but she could be.  Or, perhaps, she really does hate Sanders and wanted to play spoiler. The fact of the matter is that she no longer had any chance to win, and her timing had the effect of inflicting maximum damage to Sanders’ campaign.   I believe that her presence on the ballot on Super Tuesday swung the results from Bernie to Biden in several states.  For example, Warren got 11% in Texas; Biden beat Bernie by 4.5%.  In Maine she got 16%; Biden beat Bernie by 2%.  In Minnesota she got 15%; Biden beat Bernie by 12%.  If Bernie had won those three states the political landscape would have looked significantly different today.
5. What were the dropouts promised?  Who knows, but if Biden wins don’t be surprised if they turn up in his Administration.  Already, he has promised Beto, who is strongly anti-second amendment, to be in charge of confiscating guns.  The others?  Even a VP nod is not out of the question.

CONCLUSION

So, now we are down to two – Biden and Bernie.  Sounds like a comedy team, doesn’t it?  (Isn’t that characterization most appropriate?)  The DC and Dem establishment will do its best to support Biden and destroy Bernie.  Just watch the news coverage prospectively.

The nomination is now Biden’s to lose.  I am looking forward to the next debate.  It will be one on one.  Biden will have no place to hide.  Despite all the forces arrayed against him Bernie is not dead yet.  He is not ready to concede.  Nor are his rabid supporters.  I believe the next several months will be verrrrry interesting, if not historic.

Below please find some of the significant events that have occurred in March.

3/1/1932 – In one of the most notorious kidnappings ever, the 20 month-old son of renowned aviator, Charles Lindbergh, was taken from his home. Tragically, the child was later found dead only a few miles away.

3/1/1961 – President JFK established the Peace Corps, which sent volunteers to developing countries to provide healthcare, education, and other basic human needs.

3/1/1974 – Several senior officials of the Nixon administration were indicted for obstruction related to the infamous Watergate break-in.

3/4/1681 – England’s King Charles, II deeded a huge tract of land in the New World to William Penn in settlement of a debt. Appropriately, the area became known as Pennsylvania.

3/4/1789 – The first meeting of the US Congress occurred in NYC.

3/4/1830 – Former President John Quincy Adams returned to Congress as a member of the House of Representatives, the first, and only, ex-President to do so. [Who was the only ex-President to serve in the US Senate? See answer below?]

3/5/1770 – British soldiers opened fire on a group of demonstrating colonials, killing five, including Crispus Attucks, an African-American, who later became celebrated as being the first American to die in the Revolutionary War.

3/5/1946 – The term, “Iron Curtain,” was first used (in a speech by Winston Churchill) to describe the separation between the free countries of Europe and those that were under the domination of the Soviet Union.
3/6/1836 – The Alamo was overrun by Mexican troops, who slaughtered every last defender, including James Bowie and Davy Crockett. “Remember the Alamo” became the inspirational rallying cry for Texans’ fight for independence from Mexico.

3/10/1862 – The US began distributing paper money in denominations of $5, $10 and $20.

3/10/1880 – The Salvation Army was founded in the US.

3/11/1918 – The “Spanish Flu” first appeared in the US. By the end of 1920 it had been responsible for some 22 million deaths worldwide.

3/12/1609 – The British colonized Bermuda (by accident, as a ship headed for Virginia had been blown off-course).

3/12/1888 – The infamous “Great Blizzard of 1888” wreaked havoc on the northeastern US. In NYC it dropped 40 inches of snow over 36 hours and was responsible for some 400 deaths.

3/12/1912 – Girl Scouts of America founded.

3/12/1938 – In the first of many blatant acts of aggression, Germany invaded, and later annexed, Austria.

3/15/44 B.C. – Julius Caesar was assassinated in the Senate by a group that included his friend, Brutus (“Et tu, Brute?”).

3/16/1968 – American soldiers killed 504 Vietnamese men, women and children in what became known as the “My Lai Massacre.”

3/17 – Celebrated in many countries as St. Patrick’s Day to honor the Patron Saint of Ireland, who is credited with converting the Irish to Catholicism in the 5th century.

3/22/1972 – Congress passed the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution, which prohibited discrimination on the basis of gender.

3/23/1775 – In a speech before the Virginia House of Burgesses, Patrick Henry intoned his famous words, “give me liberty, or give me death.”

3/24/1934 – President FDR granted independence to the Philippine Islands, which the US had controlled since the Spanish-American War.

3/24/1989 – The oil tanker, Exxon Valdez, ran aground off the coast of Alaska, spewing forth some 11 million gallons of oil over some 45 miles of natural habitat, creating the one of the largest and most devastating ecological disasters in US history.

3/25/1807 – The British Parliament abolished slavery throughout the Commonwealth.

3/25/1911 – A raging fire in the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory in NYC killed 123 in just minutes. The tragedy shined a spotlight on the working conditions of immigrant women who were laboring in the garment industry for long hours and low pay.

3/26/1979 – Egypt and Israel signed the Camp David Accord peace treaty, brokered by President Jimmy Carter.

3/28/1930 – Constantinople was renamed Istanbul.

3/28/1979 – An accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant created a controversy over the use of nuclear power that still has not been fully resolved.

3/30/1981- President Ronald Reagan is gravely wounded by a would-be assassin. He recovered shortly to resume his duties and later quipped that he “forgot to duck.”

3/30/1909 – The Queensboro Bridge (aka The 59th Street Bridge) opened.

3/31/1968 – President LBJ, who, for many, had come to symbolize the futility and frustration of the Vietnam War, announced he would not run for re-election.

Birthdays – 3/1/1904 – Glenn Miller, bandleader (“Moonlight Serenade”), in Carilinda, IA; 3/2/1793 – Sam Houston, led the fight for Texas independence, Rockbridge County, VA; 3/3/1831 – George Pullman, invented “Pullman Car,” which improved sleeping accommodations on trains, in Brocton, NY; 3/3/1847 – Alexander Graham Bell, inventor of the telephone, among others, in Edinburgh, Scotland; 3/4/1747 – Casimir Pulaski, Revolutionary War hero, in Poland; 3/4/1888 – Knute Rockne, football coach, in Voss, Norway; 3/6/1475 – Michelangelo, Renaissance painter, in Caprese, Italy; 3/9/1451 – Amerigo Vespucci, explorer and cartographer for whom America is named; 3/9/1934 – Yuri Gargarin, first cosmonaut in space, in Gzhatsk, Russia; 3/14/1879 – Albert Einstein, physicist who developed the theory of relativity; 3/14/1833 – Lucy Hobbs, first female dentist, in NY; 3/15/1767 – Andrew Jackson, 7th President, war hero in War of 1812, in Waxhaw, SC; 3/16/1751 – James Madison, a Founding Father and 4th US President; 3/18/1837 – Grover Cleveland, 22nd and 24th President (only president to serve two terms non-consecutively), in Caldwell, NJ; 3/19/1813 – David Livingstone, explorer and missionary who famously went missing in Africa. When he was finally found by newsman Henry Stanley, the latter supposedly uttered the famous line, “Dr. Livingstone, I presume,” although that might have been an example of Hollywood hyperbole, in Scotland; 3/19/1848 – Wyatt Earp, Wild West lawman and gunfighter, in Monmouth, IL; 3/19/1860 – William Jennings Bryan, known for “Cross of Gold ” speech and for the dubious honor of being only person to lose three presidential races, in Salem, IL; 3/21/1685 – Johann Sebastian Bach, composer, in Germany; 3/24/1874 – Erik Weisz, aka, Harry Houdini, escape artist, in Hungary; 3/26/1911 – Thomas Lanier “Tennessee” Williams, III, playwright (“A Streetcar Named Desire,” “Cat on a Hot Tin Roof”), in Columbus, MS; 3/29/1760 – John Tyler, became 10th President upon the death of William Henry Harrison, Charles City County, VA; 3/30/1853 – Vincent Van Gogh, Postimpressionist painter, in Groot Zundert, Holland; 3/31/1731 – Franz Joseph Hayden, composer, considered to be father of the symphony and string quartet, in Austria; 3/31/1878 – Jack Johnson, first AA boxing champion, in Galveston, TX.

Answer to quiz – Andrew Johnson (TN)

Is it time to panic yet?  Has the outbreak of the Corona Virus, aka COVID-19 (the “virus”), reached the pandemic stage?

Based upon my research for this blog, I would say the answers are:  “No” and “probably not yet,” but I can see why some might disagree.  The World Health Organization (“WHO”) has issued a statement that “while it still too early to call it a pandemic countries should nonetheless be in a ‘phase of preparedness.’ ”  That said, it is important to note that the situation has been very fluid, and by the time you read this it may have deteriorated to the point where the above answers may have changed.

With respect to the virus please be advised of the following information, which I have gleaned from various sources, such as Wikipedia and various news outlets, such as tv reports and “The Washington Post.”:

1. The WHO and other health agencies have complained that much of the information about COVID-19, particularly that which has been available on the internet, has been incomplete, contradictory and infodemic (so excessive as to be confusing and counterproductive).   For example, the virus is believed to have originated in Wuhan, China, possibly at the Huanan Seafood Market, in December, although there have been reports disputing that market as being the source.  There has also been speculation that (a) the virus originally leaked from a lab in Wuhan that was conducting experiments in biological warfare, and (b) infected lab animals were smuggled out of the research facility and sold for human consumption.
2. The number of people infected has been increasing at an alarmingly rapid pace and spreading geographically.  As I write this, over 82,000 cases have been confirmed in some 50 countries, resulting in over 2,800 fatalities.  Furthermore, on February 25 for the first time the number of new cases reported outside China exceeded the number inside China.
3. On the plus side, over 32,000 of those infected have recovered.
4. To date, after China, the highest incidences of infection have been in South Korea, Italy, Iran, and Japan.  Officials of each of those governments have been severely criticized for their ineffective and/or slow actions to control the outbreak of the virus.
5. As one might expect, most of the deaths were patients who were (a) over 60 and (b) had pre-existing conditions, especially respiratory, cardiovascular or diabetes.
6.  The number of those infected has been consistently underreported, substantially so in some countries.  This could have been due to health officials being slow to recognize the symptoms of the virus (which mimic the flu or pneumonia).  However, some people, notably the WHO’s John Mackenzie and the CDC’s Anne Schuchat, have speculated that, at least in the case of China, there was a deliberate attempt to minimize the situation, possibly, for economic and tourism reasons.
7.  The common early symptoms are fever, coughing, difficulty breathing, fatigue and myalgia (muscle pain).  If untreated, these can lead to acute respiratory distress, severe pneumonia, sepsis, and, ultimately, death.
8.  The incubation period varies, but most put the outer limit at 14 days.  This presents obvious problems as far as identifying those afflicted before they can spread the disease.
9. The primary means of transmission is via respiratory droplets, e.g. coughing and sneezing on someone.  It has been estimated that the average sick person is likely to infect two to four others.
10. So far, there is no effective vaccine to treat or prevent the virus, although several health agencies have been working feverishly to produce one.  The National Institute of Health has reported that it expects to have one ready for human trials as early as April.
11. As a means of mitigating the spread of the virus public health officials urge people to observe basic hygiene, such as frequent handwashing (for 20 seconds or more), avoiding touching one’s face and mouth, and avoiding being to close to anyone who is coughing or sneezing.  Avoid touching objects, such as door knobs or railings.  The virus can survive on those types of objects for up to nine days.  The use of face masks for those not infected is not recommended, except for caregivers, as there is no evidence that they protect one against infection.  On the other hand, a mask might give one a false sense of security.  Anyone infected is urged to stay at home as much as practicable.
12. Furthermore, various countries have instituted travel restrictions or bans to infected areas and quarantines of those infected.  Airports, train stations and other points of entry have stepped up their vigilance of arriving travelers.  In addition, many have closed schools temporarily and postponed or cancelled group gatherings such as sporting events and concerts.  There has even been discussion of holding sporting events in empty stadiums.
13. The US instituted a Level 1 travel watch, which it later upgraded to Level 3 for some areas.  As I write this, the US has had only 60 confirmed cases and no deaths. That makes sense, as I would expect proportionally fewer deaths in countries, such as the US which have a strong health infrastructure.
14. President Trump has been criticized by his political enemies, unfairly, in my opinion, for the manner in which he has handled this matter.  In a recent press conference he was upbeat and positive.  He urged people to “remain calm,” and he characterized the US’s containment of the virus as “close to airtight.”  He was criticized for those comments by some people.  It’s almost as if they would rather there be more deaths if it were to mean a failure for Mr. Trump.  I find that bothersome.  I believe that in a time of crisis such as this we should put aside political differences and support the president.

CONCLUSION

As stated above, I believe the outbreak has not yet reached the “pandemic” stage.  Although much of the world’s health agencies were slow to react to the danger, it now appears that they are fully engaged.  Also, although the virus has spread rapidly the death rate has been very low, around 3%.

In addition to the abovementioned health hazards there has been and will be a strong economic impact from this virus.  China is a significant trading partner of not only the US but also many other nations.  The inevitable disruptions to its economy will have a significant impact on the economies of the rest of the world.

The financial markets have already reacted to this, perhaps overreacted.  When President Trump urged people to “remain calm” he was referring to investors as well.

In a macro view, I would like to point out that the world has survived many pandemics thrughout recorded history.  Many of you will recall the SARs outbreak of 2003 and the Asian Flu of 1956-58.  In addition, historians will recall the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 and the Black Death of 1346 – 1353.  Those were scary as this now appears to be, but I believe we will survive.