First, my standard disclaimer. The following blog constitutes my personal opinion, except where otherwise noted. Feel free to disagree, but to paraphrase the late Leslye Gore, “it’s my blog, and I’ll write what I want to.”
President Trump, whom some detractors unfairly and inaccurately, have labeled a “warmonger,” among many other unsavory characterizations, deserves much praise for attempting to accomplish what many, if not most, observers including me have long opined to be impossible, that is broker a lasting peace in the Middle East. He has proposed a comprehensive 20-point peace plan (the “Plan”), which, as I write this, is being negotiated between the combatants. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister said on Saturday that he hoped to announce the release of the hostages still being held by Hamas, actually an exchange with Palestinian prisoners currently being held by Israel, “in the coming days.” According to the BBC Hamas has said it agrees to the peace plan proposals in part but has not responded to several key demands, including its disarmament and not having any future role in the governance of Gaza.
A senior Israeli security source said that initially the negotiations would focus only on the release of hostages and would give Hamas a few days to complete that phase. The 20-point plan, which has been agreed upon by Trump, Netanyahu and a plethora of other countries worldwide, proposes an immediate end to fighting and the release of 48 hostages held by Hamas, only 20 of whom are thought to still be alive, in exchange for hundreds of detained Gazans and Palestinians.
According to multiple media outlets the Plan is essentially just a framework for a potential deal. It states that within 72 hours of an agreement all remaining hostages would be released. Recently, Trump optimistically told reporters – “We have a really good chance of making a deal, and it’ll be a lasting deal.” He added that the hostages could be released “very soon,” perhaps within one week. I hope he is right, but I remain skeptical. It should be noted that Hamas is not fully onboard yet.
The Plan further stipulates that once both sides agree to the proposal “full aid will be immediately sent into the Gaza Strip.” It also states that Hamas would have no role in governing Gaza, and it leaves the door open for an eventual Palestinian state.
The BBC has cautioned that Hamas’ agreement is contingent upon certain “field conditions” being met. What does that mean? Who knows? I view that response as too vague to be meaningful. Don’t forget, the hostages are Hamas’ only bargaining chip. I want to see them freed as much as anyone, but I don’t see why Hamas would willing to release them until a deal has been signed.
More on that below.
All of the above optimism should be taken with a huge grain of salt. After the Plan was announced publicly a week ago, Netanyahu reiterated his longstanding opposition to a Palestinian state, saying in a video statement: “It’s not written in the agreement. We said we would strongly oppose a Palestinian state.” In addition, in my view Hamas has been insisting on a Palestinian state and furthermore will not abide by any plan that includes recognizing Israel. That would contradict Hamas’ long held foremost view that Israel is an illegitimate country and has no right to exist. I don’t know how those diametrically opposed positions get reconciled.
The Plan is the closest both sides have come to a deal since the war began two years ago, but I believe it has too many unresolvable points to achieve a lasting peace.
According to the BBC and other media outlets the major impediments to a lasting deal are as follows:
- Mutual antipathy– The two sides hate each other and don’t trust each other. Israel rightfully does not trust Hamas to abide by any peace agreement. Hamas’ longstanding goal has been the total destruction of Israel. It has continually refused to recognize Israel as a legitimate country, and it has long maintained that neither Israel nor Jews in general has a right to exist. Hamas is afraid that once the hostages have been released there would be nothing to prevent Israel from completing its stated mission to destroy it once and for all. Israel’s stated goal throughout the war has been the destruction of Hamas, and President Netanyahu has repeatedly reiterated Israel will not stop until [Hamas] is “finished.” This is not a realistic basis for a lasting peace agreement. This alone would likely prevent Hamas from agreeing to the Plan.
- Future governance of Gaza – According to The Plan initially Gaza would be governed by a temporary “transitional body of Palestinian technocrats” supervised by a “Board of Peace” headed and chaired by Donald Trump and involving former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair. Eventually, control would be handed over to the Palestinian Authority. Hamas would not have any role in governance. I don’t see any way that Hamas would agree to that.
- Israeli withdrawal – The Plan envisions three stages of Israeli troop withdrawal. The first stage leaves about 55% of Gaza under Israeli control, the second 40%, and the third 15%. That final stage would consist of a “security perimeter” that would “remain until Gaza is properly secure from any resurgent terror threat.” In my view the vagueness of the wording and lack of a clear timeline for full Israeli withdrawal is problematic.
- Hamas’ disarmament – Hamas has consistently refused to disarm until a Palestinian state has been established, and even if they were to agree to do so who would believe them? Conversely, Netanyahu has reiterated consistently that “Hamas will be disarmed and Gaza will be demilitarized.” He has vowed to accomplish this “either the easy way or the hard way.”
- Netanyahu’s Political Future – Netanyahu is dealing with strong political opposition internally chiefly due to his prosecution of the war. His popularity is waning, and he is facing an election next year. A majority of Israelis are tired of the war and want it to end. They claim he is only continuing the war in Gaza to remain in power. This group is supported by recent polls that have disclosed that approximately 70% of Israelis want the war to end in exchange for the release of the hostages. Conversely a group of far-right members of his cabinet have threatened to dissolve his coalition government if the war were to end before Hamas is completely destroyed. Finally, Netanyahu would likely have to deal with a major corruption trial once the war ends.
Due to the foregoing, I am not optimistic regarding the likelihood of the Plan being agreed upon and even less optimistic that it would last if it were to be.
Hamas has been losing on the field of battle, but it has been winning bigtime in the court of public opinion. This is its biggest advantage, and I believe it has been the biggest impediment to a cessation of hostilities. I believe that Hamas is playing a delaying game in the belief that eventually public opinion will force Israel and the US to agree to more favorable terms. In the meantime, it will play lip service, but it has no intention of agreeing to the Plan.
Since October 7, 2023, open hostility towards Israel and, by extension, Jews in general has been increasing. I believe this antisemitism is not new. It’s always been there. Throughout history it has lain dormant, like a volcano, only to erupt at certain times of stress or misfortune. There have been many examples of this, which I have detailed in previous blogs. However, due to limitations of time and space I will only cite a few current examples to illustrate my point.
- Recently, the NY Post reported that the Democratic Socialists of America (which includes Zohran Mamdani as a member) promulgated a resolution in support of boycott, divestment, sanctions and armed resistance against Israel. Moreover, they are threatening to expel any members who do not support this position. According to the Network Contagion Research Institute, a nonprofit that tracks extremism, this resolution “signals intensifying ideological rigidity, intolerance and radicalism” towards Israel and Jews. Also, Mamdani’s extreme antipathy toward Jews has been well documented over the years. Accordingly, Matthew Schweber, a member of Columbia University’s Jewish Alumni Association, characterizes him as “unfit to be mayor of NYC.” Inexplicably, polls still show him to have a double-digit lead among NYC Jews in his campaign for mayor. Either they are being gaslighted or just don’t care about his antipathy, but if he wins, they will come to rue the day.
- The UN, which is supposed to be neutral, has long been dominated by antisemitic/anti-Israel sentiments. In 1975 it declared Zionism to be “a form of racism.” In the current conflict it ignores the facts and views Hamas terrorists as “freedom fighters.” Its current narrative is that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza by blocking shipments of food and other necessities, whereas in reality it is Hamas that is stealing the relief supplies and reselling them on the black market. In the entire history of the world Israel is the only victim of aggression that has been criticized for retaliating against the aggressor.
- Various nations, including China, France, Russia, and the United Kingdom, have already expressed support for a Palestinian state and its membership in the UN. Trump has correctly opined that this would, in effect, reward Hamas for its attack on 10/7/23 and its ongoing terrorism.
- Public support for Israel has been waning even in the US. According to a recent NYTimes/Siena University poll only 34% of respondents sympathize with Israel in the current conflict compared to 35% for the Palestinians. Last year a similar poll reported 47% for Israel and 20% or the Palestinians. The same poll reported that 40% of Americans believe Israel is intentionally killing civilians in Gaza whereas the complete opposite is true. Even more disturbing is that 70% of voters under 30 oppose further economic or military aid for Israel. In addition, not surprisingly the same poll reported that 54% of Dems sympathized with the Palestinians
Conclusion
President Trump has worked hard to put this comprehensive Plan together and to garner widespread support for it. For that, he is to be commended. It is yet another example of his oft-stated desire for peace around the world.
That said, in my opinion he is “pissing into the wind.” Based on the foregoing, there is no way that Hamas would feel compelled to agree to the Plan. And, if it does sign it, it will not abide by it.
It knows it is winning the publicity battle, which makes it inclined to delay and delay some more. Quite simply, most of the world hates Jews. Always has; always will. At times this hatred has been covertly lurking just below the service. And then, at other times it has erupted like a volcano. This is not just my opinion; it is a historical fact as I have delineated in various previous blogs. It will not change.
Currently, this antipathy has been extended to Israel as well. It has often been said that the US is Israel’s only friend in the world. As sad as that is, I maintain that it is overly optimistic. I maintain that Trump is Israel’s only friend. Witness the above polls. Unfortunately, Trump will not be president forever. The GOP, which is more supportive than the Dems will not be in power forever either.
American Jews have grown complacent and content. Inevitably, the Dems or the Socialists with their strong antisemitic/anti-Israel faction will gain power. What will happen to Israel and the Jews then? That was a rhetorical question. The answer, based on history, is nothing good.
We Built It Blog by Larry Jacob 