2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PREDICTION

This will be my final 2024 presidential election blog before the big day. (I can hear the wild cheering in the background.) If you are like me, regardless of your preference, you will be happy to get all the excessive and extraneous chatter over with and get on with the real voting. Talk is cheap; play the game.

Most prognosticators predict that this will be a very close election with the winner too close to call. That may be true, but I submit it is a coward’s way out. I will show no fear and make a prediction. Feel free to disagree. I would welcome your comments.

My analysis is as follows:

1. According to most of the latest polls Harris has a slight lead in the national vote, which the Dems almost always win. That is informative but largely irrelevant, although it is worth noting that her lead is much slimmer than that which is normal. It is the electoral votes of the individual states that count. Many people think that is unfair, but there are various historical reasons for that, which I have discussed in previous blogs. In any event, it is what it is.
2. There are seven “swing” states that will decide the election. Excluding those states, I have calculated that Harris is leading and likely to win in states totaling 241 electoral votes. Trump is leading and likely to win in states totaling 204 electoral votes.
3. The aforementioned swing states are MI (15 electoral votes), NC (16), AZ (11), GA (16), PA (19), NV (6), and WI (10). Those states represent 93 EVs. All the latest polls report Trump and Harris to be tied or within the margin of error in all of them, except for AZ where Trump has a four-point lead.
4. Because of those poll results prognosticators are loath to make a definitive prediction. They are hedging their bets.
5. I, however, have no such reservations.
6. I will go out on the proverbial limb and predict that Trump will win, and the EV total may not even be close. Why? See below.
7. I have doubts as to the accuracy of the polls. In the last two elections they have significantly underestimated Trump’s support. In 2016 he was several points behind Clinton, and he won in what was considered a big upset. In 2020 he lost to Biden by a “hair,” but he still outperformed the polls.
8. Trump has drawn tremendously large, enthusiastic crowds wherever he has gone. For example, at MSG in deep blue NYC he drew 20,000 inside the arena and untold thousands more outside. In my view this is irreconcilable with the polls, and it is the main reason why I doubt their accuracy.
9. According to multiple polls Trump is drawing significantly more support among blacks and Hispanics, which traditionally have been strong Dem supporters. This is another harbinger that I don’t believe is being reflected fully in the polls.
10. Normally, the Dems gain a sizeable advantage in early voting. That forces the GOP to play “catch-up” on ED. Often, due to the vagaries of weather or other unforeseen circumstances, that gap has been too much to overcome. During this election cycle the GOP has emphasized EV, and the results have been very encouraging.
11. In NC I think the impact of hurricane Helene will be very significant, particularly in the western part of the state. Thousands of people lost everything, and the Feds’ response and support was terrible. In addition, this event is very recent and should be fresh in their minds.
12. Regarding PA I don’t think many people will be deceived by Harris’ inconsistent position on fracking, which is crucial to the state’s economy. They realize she is gaslighting them. In addition, Dem Senator John Fetterman, who is monitoring the campaign in PA very closely, has characterized the level of Trump’s support on the “stump” as “astonishing.” He also thinks that Elon Musk’s support will be a considerable plus for Trump.
13. As always, turnout will be the key, but based on the foregoing analysis I predict that Trump will carry AZ, G, NV, NC and PA. Those 68 EVs would bring his EV total to 272 and a narrow victory.
14. I am less certain about MI and WI, but he could carry them as well, which would bring his EV total to 297, which would constitute more of a mandate.
15. Let’s not overlook the Senate. The GOP needs to flip a net of two seats to gain control. According to CNN there are several Dem seats that are vulnerable. With Joe Manchin retiring WVA is a “lock.” Montana and Ohio are strong possibilities. Other possibilities are MI and WI, particularly if Trump were to win those states.
16. Individual House races are unpredictable, but in my view the GOP should retain control.

Conclusion

If I am right the GOP should have sufficient control to enable Trump to enact his policies. Furthermore, the government would not have to deal with phony impeachments or other distractions.

If I am right, it will be time to TAKE OUT THE TRASH AND DRAIN THE SWAMP!

One disquieting thought. As we all know, the country is very divided. We can debate whose fault that is, but the fact remains that supporters of the losing candidate will likely contest the results. The closer the election, the stronger the likelihood of that occurring. That would be their right, but let’s hope any such protests are peaceful.