The 2024 Biden-Trump debate has been consigned to the annals of history. In many respects it was a real game changer. I think it will resonate among political historians for a long time (either famously or infamously depending on one’s political preference). In my lifetime I have watched many presidential debates, and I have never witnessed one so decisive. Frankly, at times, I was almost embarrassed for Biden.
Already certain significant patterns and trends have emerged. It is important to realize that the debate was only a few days ago, and generally speaking the full ramifications of it will not be apparent for a while. However, some immediate patterns have emerged, which I will list below as my considered opinion, with which, as always you are free to agree or disagree.
A plethora of polls and opinions have been published in the last few days. All of them have had negative implications for both Biden and the Dems. For instance:
- I could not find any publication or commentator that thought Biden won the debate or even performed well.
- Most polls’ results were consistent with the Democracy Corp poll of Dem-leaning voters many of whom described Biden as “confused,” “frail,” and exhibiting “dementia.”
- As I reported in my previous blog even media Dem stalwarts such as CNN, MSNBC and the NY Times were in a panic and were calling for Biden to step aside.
- John Levine, writing in the NY Post, put it succinctly opining that “Trump crushed Biden.” Although “crushed” may be a rather strong characterization virtually every poll concurs that Trump won, as do I. For example, a poll taken by Schoen Cooperman Research found that 51% felt Trump had won the debate compared to 34% for Biden.
- Even more foreboding, 50% of respondents in the same poll said that based on the debate they would be more likely to vote. Guess for whom those persons would be voting.
- Other polls reported similarly dire news for Biden. For example, a CBS poll disclosed that 46% of Dem registered voters and 72% of all registered voters felt Biden does not possess the “mental and cognitive health to serve as president” and should not be running. The top three reasons given were his age, decisions he might make as president, and his record as president.
- Ominously, the negativity increased among those who actually watched the debate.
- According to a Morning Consult poll 60% want Biden to withdraw and be replaced. I will evaluate possible replacements below.
- Some respondents replied that Biden’s poor performance was even worse than they expected. Probably, those were persons who got their news from one of the many media outlets that continuously hid or minimized Biden’s deficiencies. Most Fox viewers were not surprised.
Normally, I am not a proponent of fact-checking. All politicians bend the truth at times, particularly under the pressure of a debate. However, Biden told some outright lies that were too egregious to ignore.
For example:
- “I’m the only president this century that doesn’t have any – this decade – that doesn’t have any troops dying anywhere in the world.” He forgot about the 13 soldiers who died during the ill-advised, ill-planned, and ill-executed withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. We also left behind an untold number of native Afghanis who had worked for and with us who we had at least a moral obligation to take out plus billions of dollars of military weapons and equipment.
- “The US Border Patrol union endorsed me.” The union debunked that immediately and emphatically with a posting on X. “To be clear. We never have and never will endorse Biden.”
Dem party members, fund raisers, and supporters are in a quandary. Many of them are extremely distressed at the prospect of a Trump presidency. They hate him with a passion. Their hate is irrational. There is a term for their feelings. It’s called “Trump Derangement Syndrome or TDS. They truly believe he is evil. Some of them have referred to him as a Nazi. Some have even extended those characterizations to Trump supporters. I have never seen anything like it. Even Richard Nixon, as unpopular as he was by the opposition, did not engender such extreme feelings.
They put all their eggs in the Biden basket, and now they don’t know what to do. They are in a bind. Biden is insisting he will not drop out. Any alternative candidates were dissuaded or precluded from campaigning. As a result, there is no viable alternative to Biden. The one positive news for Biden was that another poll released by Data for Progress failed to identify any possible replacement that would do better than him. That’s good for Biden but bad for the Dem Party.
VP Harris’ poll numbers are worse than Biden’s. She has been exposed as ignorant, incompetent and lazy and has no accomplishments on her record as VP. Newsome is young and vibrant, but he would have to run on his dismal record as governor of California. His far-left policies have virtually bankrupted the state. Buttigieg would have to defend his spotty record as Mayor of South Bend and Transportation Secretary. Michelle Obama insists she is not interested. Hillary? Please!
CONCLUSION
Most everyone agrees that this election will be crucial for the country’s future. The country is in trouble. It is sharply divided almost down the middle politically, socially and economically. Many feel the media is sharply biased and the scales of justice are tilted. Furthermore, supporters of each candidate have exhibited an intense dislike for the other one. Feelings are so extreme that most people are loath to even engage in meaningful political dialogue lest they evolve into arguments or even fights. For most people the answer to the standard question “are you better off today than you were four years ago is a resounding “no.”
As I said, the situation is very fluid. Stay tuned for future developments.
We Built It Blog by Larry Jacob 