1. First of all, I would like to offer a little historical perspective regarding presidential debates. Generally, in my opinion, debate performances have not affected the polls appreciably. Most viewers have a preconceived judgment of the candidates, and absent a momentous blunder they are not likely to change their opinion. According to Pew Research some 60% of voters consider them to be “useful, but not determinative.” Yes, there have been a few notable exceptions. For example, when Nixon debated JFK in 1960, JFK, who had been largely unknown, came across on tv as young, vibrant, and full of “vigah.” On the other hand, Nixon appeared to be gloomy and sweaty and displayed his habitual foreboding appearance and “5 o’clock shadow.” Interestingly, most persons who listened on radio thought Nixon had “won” the debate, whereas a majority of those who viewed it on tv thought JFK had.
2. Eight participants is too many for an effective debate. It’s too hard for any single person to make a strong, lasting impression. I think the significant exception was Trump in 2016.
3. Trump skipping it was wise for him, although bad for the tv ratings. He has a big lead in the polls, which is not likely to change. Why jeopardize it by allowing himself to be the focus of attacks by the other candidates looking to make a splash?
4. In my view, Haley was the big winner, but at this point I still see her as a possible vp or a candidate for the next cycle.
5. On the other hand, I think DeSantis was the biggest loser. Based on his exemplary record as governor of Florida he was generally viewed as the strongest challenger to Trump. Unfortunately for him, he was flat, and he failed to distinguish himself from the rest of the pack. He could be this cycle’s Jeb Bush.
6. In any debate the best way for a candidate to resonate is to come up with a memorable soundbite. This is especially true when there is a crowded field. Few viewers watch the entire debate, but most will catch a soundbite on the news. In my opinion, the best ones from Tuesday were: (a) Haley quoting Margaret Thatcher. “If you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman.“ and (b) Vivek Ramaswamy on the climate change issue. “The anti-carbon agenda is the wet blanket on our economy. “
7. Abortion is a minefield. It is a highly emotional issue with radical viewpoints among the voters that absolutely killed the GOP in 2022. The latest poll I have found, conducted by Pew Research in 2022 disclosed that about 70% of Americans support abortions under certain circumstances, the later the term, the lesser the degree of support, which is logical. Pew reported very few hardliners. Only 19% thought it should be legal in all cases; only 8% thought it should be illegal in all cases. Obviously, there is plenty of room to carve out a reasonable law that would satisfy most people. The big question for me is can medical science reach a consensus at which point a fetus feels pain and could survive outside the womb.
8. I would prefer fewer candidates in future debates, but it seems like the GOP wants more participants in the future, not fewer.
8. Vivek is running as an unknown, non-politician, outsider. This strategy worked for Obama and Trump. Will it work for him? I don’t think so, but we’ll see? Also, many, if not most, Jews will interpret his anti-Israel comments as anti-Semitic. Is he one? He needs to walk back those comments or it will hurt him in certain key states.
9. Don’t read too much into the debate’s tv ratings. Fox News estimated that as many as 50 million watched some part of it. But, it is not known how much of the debate they watched. Also, many viewers watched in groups or streamed it. By contrast the in 2016 the first Clinton-Trump debate drew 84 million.
Conclusion
Don’t get too excited yet. It is very early. The NH primary is not until February 6. The list of candidates for both parties needs to trimmed to a workable number, perhaps, three or four, before the process gets serious. Candidates will drop out as their financing dries up and the primary season gets underway.
The GOP MUST embrace early voting and voter harvesting in order to compete with the Dems.
More to come.
We Built It Blog by Larry Jacob 